July 2021

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd be shocked to see 100F readings after all this rain. We'll probably end up with low to mid 90s with high dews leading to more storms.

The park will have trouble cracking 90 for a while after several inches of rain.

[Rtd208]

Another day of 90+ temps in the books.

Current temp 93/DP 75/RH 57%

[lee59]

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Another day of 90+ temps in the books.

Current temp 93/DP 75/RH 57%

Wow, only 84 here but very oppressive

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Another day of 90+ temps in the books.

Current temp 93/DP 75/RH 57%

20 degrees cooler here on the CT with East winds 75/71

[binbisso]

29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Another day of 90+ temps in the books.

Current temp 93/DP 75/RH 57%

Thst amazing even Newark only made it to 87*.  80* today for my high.    5* below forecast high.

[Eduardo]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Very tropical 12z Euro run. The WAR pumps up to 597 dm+ next week. This strong of a ridge in mid-July usually translates into upper 90s to around 100°. But the Euro has so much clouds and convection, that the highs max out in the low to mid 90s instead. The big story may turn out to be the Miami dew points and high heat indices.

Could get very interesting if that same general pattern holds into the heart of hurricane season.

[Rtd208]

20 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Thst amazing even Newark only made it to 87*.  80* today for my high.    5* below forecast high.

 

51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

20 degrees cooler here on the CT with East winds 75/71

 

51 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Wow, only 84 here but very oppressive

I even checked other reporting stations around me and most were reporting low 90's temps. My temp has now fallen back a bit but still 89 here.

[binbisso]

15 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

 

I even checked other reporting stations around me and most were reporting low 90's temps. My temp has now fallen back a bit but still 89 here.

72* /68 now with TS and heavy rain

[wdrag]

Hi!  I've checked the 12z/8 EPS for all 12z forecast 850T forecasts next week... all 17-18C daily from Tuesday on.  It's going to heat up to 90F fast.  100, not in the EPS  but I just want to make sure we're looking at actual model 850 T.  

Anomaly is larger in Canada due to cooler climo there.  That is why I'm impressed with the 500anom max showing up at least one bullseye over the mid Atlantic which has a smoother warmer height and temp field than Canada.   I haven't checked any op cycles...just noticed the comments and wanted to share my perspective on anomaly vs climo.  That is often why I'm not impressed with departures from climo, since the environment can be shouting Winter or HOT summer, but be so called out of season.  

 

Later,

Walt

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!  I've checked the 12z/8 EPS for all 12z forecast 850T forecasts next week... all 17-18C daily from Tuesday on.  It's going to heat up to 90F fast.  100, not in the EPS  but I just want to make sure we're looking at actual model 850 T.  

Anomaly is larger in Canada due to cooler climo there.  That is why I'm impressed with the 500anom max showing up at least one bullseye over the mid Atlantic which has a smoother warmer height and temp field than Canada.   I haven't checked any op cycles...just noticed the comments and wanted to share my perspective on anomaly vs climo.  That is often why I'm not impressed with departures from climo, since the environment can be shouting Winter or HOT summer, but be so called out of season.  

 

Later,

Walt

It looks like we might be dealing with an extended period of consistent 90's temps, maybe the longest so far this summer??

[doncat]

88° for the high...missed out on the storms to my north...so far anyway.

[donsutherland1]

Between 5 pm and 6 pm, thunderstorms dumped torrential rains on New York City. Central Park picked up 1.56" rain in an hour. Since hourly records were compiled in 1943, this was the 7th biggest hourly rainfall and the 2nd biggest hourly rainfall in July. The July record is 1.58", which was set on July 3, 1967. Daily rainfall through 7 pm was 2.18", which surpassed the longstanding daily mark of 1.80" from 1899.

Elsa will move through the region tonight into tomorrow. Elsa will likely bring a gusty wind and a period of heavy rain. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely across the region from Elsa. Locally higher amounts could reach 4"-6".

Out West, another above to much above normal regime is taking hold. The height of this latest bout of heat could occur during the weekend into early next week. Central California could see particularly large temperature anomalies. Death Valley will likely top out with readings between 125°-130°. By the end of the heatwave, Death Valley could be near or even above its annual record of 10 125° or above days. The record was set in 1913 (unreliable) and then tied in 2013 and 2017.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +11.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.811 today.

On July 6 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.121 (RMM). The July 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.232 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.7° (0.2° above normal).

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like we might be dealing with an extended period of consistent 90's temps, maybe the longest so far this summer??

Unsure after Friday the 16th, waiting til tomorrow AM to start the topic (in the midst of ELSA).  It does look like 90F heat will begin Tuesday- am thinking MOS is lagging but leftover ocean influence could preclude.  Many models wait til Wed.  There almost certainty will be spotty FF from big thunderstorms in 2"+ PW prior to the heat along the warmfront in NJ/PA. Question how far north?  Also any weak TORS in non dynamic generated warm frontal TS related spin Sun-Tue, on the warm front,wherever it is.

Then Wed-THU and probably FRI or even Sat: Pretty good chance of 1-3 days SVR in very high CAPE of 2500J/Heat Index near 100.  Details TBD but I just checked 12z/8 EPS anoms... very impressive middle of next week and will they relax enough to permit a clean CFP late For Sat?, or does this wait til Sunday the 18th?  

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Unsure after Friday the 16th, waiting til tomorrow AM to start the topic (in the midst of ELSA).  It does look like 90F heat will begin Tuesday- am thinking MOS is lagging but leftover ocean influence could preclude.  Many models wait til Wed.  There almost certainty will be spotty FF from big thunderstorms in 2"+ PW prior to the heat along the warmfront in NJ/PA. Question how far north?  Also any weak TORS in non dynamic generated warm frontal TS related spin Sun-Tue, on the warm front,wherever it is.

Then Wed-THU and probably FRI or even Sat: Pretty good chance of 1-3 days SVR in very high CAPE of 2500J/Heat Index near 100.  Details TBD but I just checked 12z/8 EPS anoms... very impressive middle of next week and will they relax enough to permit a clean CFP late For Sat?, or does this wait til Sunday the 18th?  

One thing is for sure, this has been a very active summer so far for heavy rain, storms and heat. This is the kind of summer I like.

[wdrag]

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd be shocked to see 100F readings after all this rain. We'll probably end up with low to mid 90s with high dews leading to more storms.

You'll probably be right but only takes one sunny day thru 5P with a west wind...esp Thu, Fri ???  I'm still leaving the door open but it's not my feature for the coming week. Instead increasingly moistened ground, with rounds of Heavy storms, a few SVR wet microbursts. That seems probable in my view... thru 12z/8 modeling.

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

One thing is for sure, this has been a very active summer so far for heavy rain, storms and heat. This is the kind of summer I like.

For those of us with wells and very very fortunate to have a pool... no need to use the well water and burn out the pump. Hydrangeas having a fab summer as well as all the flowers around here in nw NJ.  

[uncle W]

have not added water to my pool all season so far...the water level is two inches above where it should be...tonight will add to it...

[SACRUS]

7/8

New Brnswck: 91
PHL: 90
BLM: 90
ACY: 89
TTN: 89
EWR: 88
TEB: 86
NYC: 84
JFK: 81
ISP: 80
LGA: 80

[Rtd208]

High for the day yesterday was 93 here.

Current temp 73/DP 71/RH 94%

[LoboLeader1]

Current temp here 70, nearly 2 inches of water in the rain bucket from yesterday's deluge.

[Rtd208]

Moderate to heavy rain falling here.

Picked up 1.05" of rain so far today.

Current temp 72

[wdrag]

My plan is to begin  a new thread around 9PM this evening, when time, Sunday the 11th through Saturday the 17th.  Inclusive of FF producing thunderstorms Sun afternoon -Tuesday, with embedded wet microburst severe- then a better chance of widespread SVR Wed, FRI and/or Sat with the approaching cool front (some embedded FF). Heat Wave begins Tuesday or Wed and ends sometime next weekend, Rainfall: depends on repeat events, but widespread basic rainfall of 1/2" in the 7 day period, no big deal but isolated 6" possible due to PW Sun-due near 2", popping back up to near 2" Fri into Sat morning.  Heat index near 100 Thu and or Fri.  All in all, summer normal hot, but I think the bigger story will be FF producing storms and my guess is 3- possibly 5 more days of SVR reports in the forum. On some days the svr will be on the northern or southern fringe  of our subforum but still the risk is there. BIG CAPE is one of the drivers.  Bigger wind fields Wed and next Fro-Sat.  DRY Hottest day may be next Thu???  That's my prelim framework. Will recheck this eve and with time, post it.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(72/89), or +2.0.

Month to date is  74.4[-2.3].           Should be about  77.2[-0.2] by the 17th.

73*(97%RH) here at 6am, Rain as 'Elsa' passes.    29.70".       Last band of rain just went by {9am}with a pickup of the wind from near Zero mph to breezy. 72*, still 29.70".

[winterwarlock]

Got .49 from t storm last night and about the same from Elsa (currently .43) so all in all rather meh IMBY

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

As of 8 am, New York City had picked up 1.49” of rain so far. That broke the daily record of 1.09”, which was set in 1964. The 2-day rainfall is currently 3.76”. That is the 5th highest 2-day figure on record for July.

Rain will end later this morning and clouds could break for a time. It will remain warm. Some showers and thundershowers are possible during the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 90°

Philadelphia: 88°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.9°; 15-Year: 85.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 88.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.0°; 15-Year: 88.8°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm.

[SACRUS]

Elsie departs, joining Fay and Arthur in early July tropical systems in the last 10 years.  Should see some clearing in the wake of the storm in the next few hours.  Sat (7/10) - Mon (7/13) transitioning from current high humidity to the next resurge. Temps mostly below 90 but outside of Saturday, showers and storms chances .

 

By Tuesday the Western Atlantic Ridge is building back high pressure west in to the EC, Tuesday may see hung up front still stubborn to wash out but clouds the only thing from preventing the next string of 90s to commence.  P

Otherwise- Wed (7/14) through Sat (7/17) Florida style pattern hot, humid wuth routine thunderstorms.  Wed/Thu 850 temps surging to >18c , with enough sun the wsw flow could push  near the century mark at LGA/ EWR other metro areas.  Lots of rain in the ground for the park to nudge past 93 on the hottest days.

Beyond there into the middle of the month and yonder overall warm to hot and humidity (Florida-like) looks to persist.  Western heat furnace looks to shoot scorching heat east in spatters.  Mean trough into the GL with Ridging on both west and east coasts.  We wait for the merge to see potential record heat to end the month.

[SACRUS]

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

[FPizz]

.47" total.  Missed most of the storms yesterday and most of Elsa was east of here.  89 as a high temp yesterday.  

[SACRUS]

Monthly rain totals (so far)

NYC: 6.49
LGA: 4.32
EWR: 4.49
New Brnswck: 2.95
TTN: 2.5
ISP: 2.42
JFK: 2.73

[RU848789]

Anywhere to get a good graphic on rainfall over the past week or for July to date for our area?  Thanks.  iweathernet has a radar composite map for up to the past 72 hours, but not further out than that...