July 2021

[doncat]

Of course the warmth of June is the main reason with July ending up very close to normal.

[bluewave]

We are in the era now of a +1 July still finishing in the top 20 warmest.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0
11	2016	79.9	0
12	1983	79.6	0
-	1966	79.6	0
13	1995	79.5	0
-	1949	79.5	0
14	2006	79.4	0
-	1987	79.4	0
15	1981	79.2	0
-	1952	79.2	0
16	2021	79.1	1
17	2015	79.0	0
18	1980	78.8	0
19	2008	78.7	0
20	1973	78.6	0

[uncle W]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are in the era now of a +1 July still finishing in the top 20 warmest.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0
11	2016	79.9	0
12	1983	79.6	0
-	1966	79.6	0
13	1995	79.5	0
-	1949	79.5	0
14	2006	79.4	0
-	1987	79.4	0
15	1981	79.2	0
-	1952	79.2	0
16	2021	79.1	1
17	2015	79.0	0
18	1980	78.8	0
19	2008	78.7	0
20	1973	78.6	0

its really the 22nd warmest but warm none the less...

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, uncle W said:

its really the 22nd warmest but warm none the less...

I use the dense rank like the NWS in Upton does on their climate page.

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/dense-rank-transact-sql?view=sql-server-ver15

If two or more rows have the same rank value in the same partition, each of those rows will receive the same rank. For example, if the two top salespeople have the same SalesYTD value, they will both have a rank value of one. The salesperson with the next highest SalesYTD will have a rank value of two. This exceeds the number of distinct rows that come before the row in question by one. Therefore, the numbers returned by the DENSE_RANK function do not have gaps, and always have consecutive rank values.

The sort order used for the whole query determines the order of the rows in the result set. This implies that a row ranked number one does not have to be the first row in the partition.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

[doncat]

I also rank the months from coldest to warmest and this July which will finish at exactly normal, will also finish right in the middle of the rankings with 20 warmer and 20 cooler.

[psv88]

What a day today. My god. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What a day today. My god. 

Just perfect

[bluewave]

LGA is currently -1.3 for July and the 2nd coolest July since 2010. Almost like a spring backdoor pattern where Newark is warmer and LGA cooler. Very sharp departure dividing line across the area.

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
	2020	82.9	0
	2010	82.8	0
	2019	81.5	0
	2013	81.2	0
	2016	81.1	0
	2012	80.4	0
	2011	80.4	0
	2018	79.8	0
	2015	79.2	0
	2017	78.1	0
	2021	77.9	1
	2014	77.0	0

[lee59]

Not only has it been wet here but Tuscon Arizona had its wettest July ever with over 7 inches of rain. Really helping in putting a dent in the drought.

[Intensewind002]

Went down to 57 here this morning, felt great

[Intensewind002]

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not only has it been wet here but Tuscon Arizona had its wettest July ever with over 7 inches of rain. Really helping in putting a dent in the drought.

They have a really long way to go though in the SW, ground water and reservoir levels are still at record low levels. I think the recent drought monitor discussion said the colorado river and great salt lake are both at their lowest levels ever

[donsutherland1]

After an unseasonably cool start, temperatures rose into the upper 70s with a few lower 80s in parts of the region. New York City finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.0°, which was 1.5° below normal (1991-20 baseline). A few record low temperatures were tied or broken:

Albany: 49° (tied record set in 1978)
Allentown: 50° (old record: 51°, 1936)
Islip: 55° (tied record set in 2001)
White Plains: 53° (old record: 55°, 1956)

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. There could be some showers. It will be unseasonably cool. The work week will start with somewhat warmer readings and a return to sunshine. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region.

Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +7.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.711 today.

On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.872 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.296 (RMM).

 

[Intensewind002]

Finished July with 7.84” of total rainfall, the wettest month here since August 2011

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

I use the dense rank like the NWS in Upton does on their climate page.

https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/sql/t-sql/functions/dense-rank-transact-sql?view=sql-server-ver15

If two or more rows have the same rank value in the same partition, each of those rows will receive the same rank. For example, if the two top salespeople have the same SalesYTD value, they will both have a rank value of one. The salesperson with the next highest SalesYTD will have a rank value of two. This exceeds the number of distinct rows that come before the row in question by one. Therefore, the numbers returned by the DENSE_RANK function do not have gaps, and always have consecutive rank values.

The sort order used for the whole query determines the order of the rows in the result set. This implies that a row ranked number one does not have to be the first row in the partition.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

they should rank them by the ones with the highest temperature if two months are tied

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After an unseasonably cool start, temperatures rose into the upper 70s with a few lower 80s in parts of the region. New York City finished with a monthly mean temperature of 76.0°, which was 1.5° below normal (1991-20 baseline). A few record low temperatures were tied or broken:

Albany: 49° (tied record set in 1978)
Allentown: 50° (old record: 51°, 1936)
Islip: 55° (tied record set in 2001)
White Plains: 53° (old record: 55°, 1956)

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. There could be some showers. It will be unseasonably cool. The work week will start with somewhat warmer readings and a return to sunshine. Overall, August will probably finish near normal in the Middle Atlantic region.

Through much of July, the area of drought over northwestern North America has largely driven the upper air pattern. The MJO has played a much lesser role. Should that remain the case, much of August could see warm temperature anomalies in the western half of the United States, especially the northwestern U.S. and western Canada. The Northeast could see near normal or below normal readings. Since 1869, there were 9 cases where July saw 8.00" or more of rain. Only 1988 saw a much warmer than normal August (78.8° mean temperature). The remainder of that set of years saw mean temperatures below the 1991-20 August mean of 76.0°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +7.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.711 today.

On July 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.872 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.296 (RMM).

 

Don, I think it was in the upper 50s Saturday morning at JFK?  It was here.  What about NYC? and FOK and MPO?  I bet those were in the 40s!  Thanks

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

This morning, the temperature fell to 60° in New York City’s Central Park. That was the lowest July temperature since July 4 when the low was also 60° and the coolest temperature in the second half of July since July 24, 2007 when the mercury dipped to 58°. Overall, it was tied with 1891 and 1936 for the 4th lowest July 31 temperature.

It will be mostly sunny and cool. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 77°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 81°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 84.8°; 15-Year: 85.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.4°; 15-Year: 87.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.4°; 15-Year: 88.2°

Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend.

oh no NYC didn't reach the 50s? JFK must have, I woke up to 58 degrees here and I'm just east of there.

 

[LoboLeader1]

HPN here in July saw 9 days with temps in the 90's. Highest temp was (7/16) 95 degrees. Lowest temp was (7/30) 54.  Total rainfall of the month topped out @ 9.70 inches.

[wdrag]

Summarizing: 3rd wettest July on record at CP,  (generally top 10 NYC metro-least on parts of LI), and cooler than normal.  How was the severe events count vs normal (just use as best can near NYC, or maybe SVR/FF issuances)?  Initial thread issuance missed the overall heat expectation-which did not occur. 

 

749AA:  added percent of normal qpf for July as of 7/30. 

[SACRUS]

Cool down

EWR:

7/30: 87/67
7/31: 81/61

JFK:

7/30: 86/66
7/31: 76/59

LGA:

7/30: 85/68
7/31: 79/64

NYC:

7/30: 82/67
7/31:  77/60