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July 2021

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
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Sunrise through the thick wildfire smoke:  

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How the sun looks through it

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted
Past 12 Hours Observations for NYC         10.62" now for the month.        10.48 + 0.14 
MOST RECENT DATA:  8am edt   28-JUL-21
NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK, NY (   89')                   LAT=40.77N LON= 73.98W   
STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
NYC  9pm 78 59 51 050  3    137 2997                       130eBKN    10
    10pm 78 58 49 000  6    149 3000                80 BKN 130eBKN    10
    11pm 77 59 53 000  0    135 2996  TR   100 SCT 120 SCT 130eBKN    10 R-
    12am 76 59 55 000  0    136 2996               100 BKN 140eBKN    10
     1am 76 59 55 000  3    147 3000        70 BKN  85 BKN 110 OVC    10
     2am 70 65 83 290  4    142 2998 0.01   70 SCT 100 BKN 120 OVC     9 R-
    0236 71 66 83 290  9        3000        43 SCT  70 BKN  85 OVC 1 3/4 R
     3am 69 67 92 000  0    142 2998        44 SCT  70 BKN 110 OVC     3 R-F
    0337 69 67 92 000  3        2996        55 SCT  80 BKN 100 OVC 2 1/2 R-F
    0344 69 67 92 290  3        2997        80 BKN  95 BKN  HI ???     5 R-F
     4am 69 66 89 270  4    140 2997        55 SCT  75 BKN  95 BKN     8
     5am 70 66 87 060  3    143 2998 0.13                  130eSCT     7
     6am                                                                
     7am 69 65 86 000  3    145 2999                LO CLR  HI ???     7
     8am 70 65 83 000  3    153 3001 0.13                  130eSCT    10
NYC   11 temps: high=  78 at  9pm low=  69 at  3am mean=  72.9   precip=  0.14
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I believe this is our first two consecutive Julys with 10.00”+ at any of our major stations. Hard to know if this has happened before at the smaller PWS or coop sites. But the strong subtropical flavor continues with very wet and high dew point regimes of recent summers.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1889 11.89 0
2 1975 11.77 0
3 2021 10.48 4


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2020 11.22 0
2 1988 9.98 0
3 1984 8.65 0
4 2004 8.39 0
5 2021 8.30 4
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nycwinter

nycwinter

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I believe this is our first two consecutive Julys with 10.00”+ at any of our major stations. Hard to know if this has happened before at the smaller PWS or coop sites. But the strong subtropical flavor continues with very wet and high dew point regimes of recent summers.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1889 11.89 0
2 1975 11.77 0
3 2021 10.48 4


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2020 11.22 0
2 1988 9.98 0
3 1984 8.65 0
4 2004 8.39 0
5 2021 8.30 4

 the record is within reach for central park ..

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Friday would be the only outside chance for a 90 in the warmer spots if the advance (push) of the warmer air was delayed vs what models are showing.  They show a push of 850 temos >16c overnight Thursday (7/29) into Friday (7/30) morning before the front comes through and dries us out  / coold off.  Then into the trough and coolest stretch (5 days) since May against the mean average. 

Onto August thread but both GFS and ECM continue second and third model cycle with humid / warm-hot pattern returning with the westward expanding W/ Atl Ridge in the 8/5 and beyond period with next potential chance at 90s.  Its a matter of how that evolves to see how hot it can get.  Right now the center of the ridge is anchored of the EC in the long range with a warm / humid Southerly flow.

 

Id bet on humid and wet at this stage and temps bias warm before we can hone in on any spike in heat.  

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

 the record is within reach for central park ..

15 inches is within reach at Port Washington.

 

NY-NS-27 
Port Washington 0.8 N 
Lat: 40.839167 
Lon: -73.68025 
* indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report
Station         NY-NS-27
Date Precip in.
07/01/2021 1.04
07/02/2021 1.12
07/03/2021 2.26
07/04/2021 0.79
07/05/2021 0.00
07/06/2021 0.00
07/07/2021 0.43
07/08/2021 0.01
07/09/2021 3.07
07/10/2021 2.06
07/11/2021 0.02
07/12/2021 0.21
07/13/2021 0.04
07/14/2021 0.02
07/15/2021 T
07/16/2021 0.00
07/17/2021 0.00
07/18/2021 0.28
07/19/2021 0.05
07/20/2021 0.01
07/21/2021 T
07/22/2021 0.34
07/23/2021 0.01
07/24/2021 0.00
07/25/2021 0.22
07/26/2021 2.33
07/27/2021 0.01
07/28/2021 0.31
Totals :  14.63 in.

 

 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I believe this is our first two consecutive Julys with 10.00”+ at any of our major stations. Hard to know if this has happened before at the smaller PWS or coop sites. But the strong subtropical flavor continues with very wet and high dew point regimes of recent summers.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1889 11.89 0
2 1975 11.77 0
3 2021 10.48 4


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 2020 11.22 0
2 1988 9.98 0
3 1984 8.65 0
4 2004 8.39 0
5 2021 8.30 4

NYC picked up 0,14" over night...Newark 0.04"...

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

what ever gives us the most rain for tomorrow I'll take...one big cloud burst or an all day rain...the record rainfall for July is in reach...the years ahead of us are 1889 and 1975...the winters that followed those years were on the duddy side...

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crossbowftw3

crossbowftw3

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

tomorrow's forecast is dependent on how the mcs/derecho evolves over the upper midwest. all options are on the table from possible svr weather to boring stratiform rain all day 

First signs of possible initiation of the predecessor supercells may be underway across MN soon so we shall see how the models handle the MCS once it gets established, slight risk is good where it stands now. Instability may be limited for us close to and north of NYC proper but shear is notably strong.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, uncle W said:

2007 was in the 50's on the 2nd and 24th...This summer is a little similar to the 1963 and 1964 Summers...near 100 to start and cooler ending...both Augusts were cool in 63 and 64...I doubt we see anything like those years but who knows...

First time since 2007 that Newark had more 90° days in June than July.

 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Jul
Difference
2021 12 11 -1
2020 5 17 +12
2019 4 14 +10
2018 5 9 +4
2017 5 9 +4
2016 3 16 +13
2015 4 11 +7
2014 2 8 +6
2013 4 15 +11
2012 6 16 +10
2011 4 22 +18
2010 13 21 +8
2009 0 1 +1
2008 6 11 +5
2007 6 4 -2
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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the divide between nj and eastern areas continues. ewr 87 lga 82 bdr 80 isp 80 jfk 83 nyc 81

The three stations Essex and Hudson are running warmer than all other stations by a wider margin than we usually see. 
 

90° days

Harrison...25

Caldwell...26

Newark..…27

SMQ..……..22

LGA…………17

JFK………….6

FRG………….8

ISP…………..3

BDR…………8

 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The three stations Essex and Hudson are running warmer than all other stations by a wider margin than we usually see. 
 

90° days

Harrison...25

Caldwell...26

Newark..…27

SMQ..……..22

LGA…………17

JFK………….6

FRG………….8

ISP…………..3

BDR…………8

 

I've had just as many as Newark...its been either hot and humid or warm and humid with showers...not a bad summer if you like T storms...

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Showers and thundershowers are possible tomorrow. Some of the rain could be heavy. That will add to the 10.62" of rain that has already fallen at Central Park making July 2021 the 3rd wettest July on record. At present, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will go on to record 50.00" or more of precipitation this year.

July will likely end with an unseasonable push of cool air. Temperatures Saturday morning will likely fall into the 50s outside New York City.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +1.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.070 today.

On July 26 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The July 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.205 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (1.4° below normal).

 

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