July 2021

[Rtd208]

Current temp 90/DP 66/RH 46%

[bluewave]

Another top 10 highest dew point July at JFK and ISP.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another top 10 highest dew point July at JFK and ISP.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Have we come close to matching that 42 75+ DP days we had that one year at JFK?  I think that was 2017?

 

[forkyfork]

can we put the country's atmosphere through a giant filter?

[CIK62]

Same thing happened here, except I only reached 87* before dropping back quickly to 85*

STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
JFK  3am 74 68 81 060  4    125 2990                27 BKN  47 OVC    10 R-
     4am 73 69 87 280  3    117 2988                49 SCT 250 OVC    10
     5am 72 69 90 230  6    116 2987  TR           150 SCT 250 OVC    10
     6am 72 69 90 240  5    118 2988       100 SCT 250 BKN 280eOVC    10
     7am 73 69 87 260  4    122 2989        85 SCT 140 SCT 260 BKN    10
     8am 77 71 81 210  3    122 2989  TR           140 SCT 260 OVC    10
     9am 81 72 73 320  6    125 2990                50 SCT 260 OVC    10
    10am 84 68 58 350  6    123 2990               260 BKN 270eOVC    10
    11am 86 64 47 340  8    124 2990                       280 BKN     9
    12pm 88 61 39 000  6    125 2990                       280 BKN     9
     1pm 90 62 38 000  0    125 2990        65 SCT  80 SCT 260 BKN     9
     2pm 86 67 52 180  7    123 2989                70 SCT 260 BKN     8
JFK   12 temps: high=  90 at  1pm low=  72 at  5am mean=  79.6   precip= TRACE

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Have we come close to matching that 42 75+ DP days we had that one year at JFK?  I think that was 2017?

 

That was 2018.  JFK is currently at 7 days with a 75° or higher dew point . Only 3 more days needed for the first 6 year run.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

[IrishRob17]

27 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

can we put the country's atmosphere through a giant filter?

The smoke is back up here now, a very distinct odor. Visibility at KMGJ is currently 3 miles. 

[psv88]

91 here, FRG 89, even shirley out in SE suffolk hit 90

[stemwinder]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

can we put the country's atmosphere through a giant filter?

The North Cascades looks to be ablaze now, too.

[Rtd208]

Current temp 93/DP 64/RH 39%

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That was 2018.  JFK is currently at 7 days with a 75° or higher dew point . Only 3 more days needed for the first 6 year run.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

wow and what was the summer we had back to back 99 high temps with 117 heat index at JFK?  Was that July 2019?  I remember it was on a weekend.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Same thing happened here, except I only reached 87* before dropping back quickly to 85*

STA     TMP DP RH  WD WS  G PRS  ALT PCPN     CLOUD LEVELS HGT TYP   VIS  WX
JFK  3am 74 68 81 060  4    125 2990                27 BKN  47 OVC    10 R-
     4am 73 69 87 280  3    117 2988                49 SCT 250 OVC    10
     5am 72 69 90 230  6    116 2987  TR           150 SCT 250 OVC    10
     6am 72 69 90 240  5    118 2988       100 SCT 250 BKN 280eOVC    10
     7am 73 69 87 260  4    122 2989        85 SCT 140 SCT 260 BKN    10
     8am 77 71 81 210  3    122 2989  TR           140 SCT 260 OVC    10
     9am 81 72 73 320  6    125 2990                50 SCT 260 OVC    10
    10am 84 68 58 350  6    123 2990               260 BKN 270eOVC    10
    11am 86 64 47 340  8    124 2990                       280 BKN     9
    12pm 88 61 39 000  6    125 2990                       280 BKN     9
     1pm 90 62 38 000  0    125 2990        65 SCT  80 SCT 260 BKN     9
     2pm 86 67 52 180  7    123 2989                70 SCT 260 BKN     8
JFK   12 temps: high=  90 at  1pm low=  72 at  5am mean=  79.6   precip= TRACE

JFK hit 90 at 1 PM?  Was that their high?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

can we put the country's atmosphere through a giant filter?

we need a giant dehumidifier

[lee59]

88 my high today. Looks like the remainder of the month will be average to a little below average. Tomorrow will probably be the only above average day.

[uofmiami]

87 for the high in Syosset & Muttontown.

[KEITH L.I]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was 2018.  JFK is currently at 7 days with a 75° or higher dew point . Only 3 more days needed for the first 6 year run.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

Try 103 degrees with a dewpiont of 80..July 15th 1995..the hottest day I ever experienced

[doncat]

91° high here today.

[Cfa]

91 here, which is the high for today.

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Try 103 degrees with a dewpiont of 80..July 15th 1995..the hottest day I ever experienced

JFK was able to set its highest dew point record of 84° in 2016. But you can see how all the highest records were in recent years. The mid-July 1995 heatwave was impressive for several sites reaching the 100/80 mark. 

 

[CIK62]

And remember the GFS is +4 to +7 in the LR around these parts:            (I got to 91* ultimately today and beat Central Park.)

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK hit 90 at 1 PM?  Was that their high?

 

Yes. And it was warmer than Central Park.

[BombsAway1288]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

And remember the GFS is +4 to +7 in the LR around these parts:            (I got to 91* ultimately today and beat Central Park.)

 

Those are really the numbers the GFS is spitting out for NYC? The next 2 days don't jive, 88 degree low for Central Park? And if that's saying that 88 is the low just before midnight tonight, well it's 87 now so that's way off. Unless I'm reading it all wrong of course.

Also, grossly overestimating the highs. KNYC's reporting hotspot of KLGA was 3 degrees under what this is spitting out, let alone Central Park.

What am I missing here?

[doncat]

16 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Those are really the numbers the GFS is spitting out for NYC? The next 2 days don't jive, 88 degree low for Central Park? And if that's saying that 88 is the low just before midnight tonight, well it's 87 now so that's way off. Unless I'm reading it all wrong of course.

Also, grossly overestimating the highs. KNYC's reporting hotspot of KLGA was 3 degrees under what this is spitting out, let alone Central Park.

What am I missing here?

That chart has been posted numerous times this summer and it's always way off.

[donsutherland1]

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the 90s in many parts of the region. Central Park fell short of 90°, but that was likely due to thick foliage. Based on a statistical regression equation based on nearby locations, Central Park would likely have hit 91° had it not been for the trees. 90° temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 97°; Boston: 93°; Bridgeport: 90°; Harrisburg: 90°; New York City-JFK: 90°; New York City-LGA: 90°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 91°; and, Washington, DC: 97°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 26):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 16 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 31 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 20 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 15 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 16 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 26 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 21 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 27 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 15 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 16 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region. A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday and the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +14.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.194 today.

On July 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.190 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

 

[Cfa]

This wildfire smoke is insane, I didn't smell it last week but now it smells like the fire is within walking distance. It just came out of nowhere. Sky is clear to the south/east but very hazy to the north/west.

[psv88]

Beginning to think ISP readings are a bit low. Both Westhampton and Shirley hit 90 and 91 today respectively, yet ISP stuck at 89. Weird summer there. 

[Cfa]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Beginning to think ISP readings are a bit low. Both Westhampton and Shirley hit 90 and 91 today respectively, yet ISP stuck at 89. Weird summer there. 

I’ve felt that way since I moved here a couple of years ago. Granted I’m further west and slightly more north but sometimes the difference between here and there is significant.

[lee59]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the 90s in many parts of the region. Central Park fell short of 90°, but that was likely due to thick foliage. Based on a statistical regression equation based on nearby locations, Central Park would likely have hit 91° had it not been for the trees. 90° temperatures included: Allentown: 90°; Baltimore: 97°; Boston: 93°; Bridgeport: 90°; Harrisburg: 90°; New York City-JFK: 90°; New York City-LGA: 90°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 91°; and, Washington, DC: 97°.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 26):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 16 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 31 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 20 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 15 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 16 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 26 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 21 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 27 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 15 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 16 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region. A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday and the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +14.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.194 today.

On July 22 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.190 (RMM). The July 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

 

Newark sure stands out when it comes to this seasons 90 plus degree days.

[wdrag]

I have nothing to hang a thread upon through Aug 10.  Maybe after Aug 10 it will start warming consistently above normal. 

I did see the early afternoon update MARGINAL Risk by SPC into the northern part of our subforum for Tuesday evening.  For now, am not highlighting via a thread. Will take another look Tuesday morning. 

[SACRUS]

7/26

EWR: 93
New Brnswck: 91
ACY: 91
PHL: 91
BLM: 90
JFK: 90
LGA: 90
TTN: 89
TEB: 89
ISP: 89
NYC: 88