the_other_guy Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 80F Today reminds me of what summer days out on Eastern Long Island used to be like: temperate days, cool nights, rarely needed the AC at night. Geez, the climate out here has changed so drastically in such a short time…it is scary. It is all in the dewpoint and most of it is in the last 20 years. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 81/62 temp split today...nice last three days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the lower 80s at the New York Botanical Garden. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: "***( The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. ***" Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc. Sheesh! Central Park is a great place. But that blows my mind. Probably economy and budget issues, cum bureaucracy at its worst. Pity the poor Mets who get blamed. No met for 60 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 24, 2021 Share Posted July 24, 2021 This would be a great winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Was at smith point park on the beach today. Perfect beach day. Can’t draw it up any better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 A period of above to much above normal temperatures will develop starting tomorrow. Several days of above to much above normal readings are likely through mid-week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +16.19 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.685 today. On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.576 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.726 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.7° (0.8° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 7/24 PHL: 86 EWR: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 NYC: 84 TTN: 83 TEB: 83 LGA: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 81 BLM: 80 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 12 hours ago, bluewave said: I have never heard of an ASOS system being moved after it was built. The best time to have done that was before they installed it back in 1995. I don’t think there is a budget for moving weather stations. a better idea might be to have a back up weather station installed elsewhere in the Park (like in the Sheep Meadow) and use that data to correct the other one. Of course installing a second unit there would require $$$$$ Why did we switch to ASOS? The old way was more accurate. Automation = laziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 12 hours ago, nycwinter said: when was the last time nyc had 4 days in a row in july with dew points that were in the 50's earlier in the month lol. I think they were in the 30s and 40s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 beautiful night. getting pinpricked by drizzle or condensing fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 11 hours ago, uncle W said: in the 60's the question would be when was the last time NYC had four straight days with dew points above the 50's... those must have been some amazing years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 8 hours ago, stemwinder said: Sheesh! Central Park is a great place. But that blows my mind. Probably economy and budget issues, cum bureaucracy at its worst. Pity the poor Mets who get blamed. No met for 60 miles. they all moved to the suburbs- I do blame them for doing that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: This would be a great winter pattern. I guess that means that August heat is going to be canceled too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: beautiful night. getting pinpricked by drizzle or condensing fog. oh it’s just straight up raining now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 nice and breezy outside, about to rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 The last 7 days of July are averaging 79degs.(70/88), or +1. Month to date is 76.3[-1.3]. July should end near 76.9[-0.6]. The Summer to date at 54 Days In is +0.6. July should be the third BN Month this year. So when was the last year with at least 7 BN Months(just in case)? Anyone know? Thanks. 70*(85%RH), here at 6am, overcast, streets wet. 69* at 6:30. Reached 82* at 2:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 This is the 15th day in July so far with rain in NYC. It’s the most since 1996. So NYC is getting closer to only the 3rd 10.00” July. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Missing Count 1 1871 20 0 2 1992 16 0 - 1988 16 0 - 1969 16 0 - 1958 16 0 - 1945 16 0 - 1919 16 0 - 1915 16 0 - 1901 16 0 - 1887 16 0 3 1996 15 0 - 1938 15 0 - 1897 15 0 - 1889 15 0 2021 15 6 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1889 11.89 0 2 1975 11.77 0 3 1897 9.56 0 4 2021 9.21 7 5 1928 8.89 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 25, 2021 Author Share Posted July 25, 2021 No threads from myself: This afternoon seems like I-95 or south of I78, especially central/s NJ for an isolated or sct potentially SVR storm. SPC HREF starts a bit further northwest of I95. Confidence low. Will only react w a thread if SPC upgrades or a watch issues. This coming workweek: Low confidence w best chance Thursday when wind fields aloft are strongest. However, Thursday on the 00z/25 EC OP is not quite as robust as the 12z/24 cycle. Laying low for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I guess that means that August heat is going to be canceled too With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Morning thoughts… Earlier this morning, New York City picked up 0.49”. That brought the July total to 9.70”. As a result 2021 moved past 1897 when 9.56” of rain fell to become the 3rd wettest July on record. Today will be variably cloudy and more humid. Showers and thundershowers are possible this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will rise to the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 83° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 88° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.2° Newark: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 88.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.8°; 15-Year: 88.8° Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and very warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend. Just had two mornings of 58 for the low in Muttontown on Friday & Saturday. I’ll take these cooler summer mornings as they come, a welcomed break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 25, 2021 Author Share Posted July 25, 2021 only.02 in Wantage early today. NO SPC upgrade in their 846AM D1 update. No thread from myself on this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 A strangely wet .03 this morning. I guess that it has been so wet that it doesn't take much at all to be soggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Only .02 here as well with those light showers that moved through earlier. Another shower incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Picked up 0.24" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Just had two mornings of 58 for the low in Muttontown on Friday & Saturday. I’ll take these cooler summer mornings as they come, a welcomed break. This is the first time in the post 2010 era that Newark experienced such a big monthly maximum temperature drop from June to July. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season Mean 96 100 +4 2021 103 97 -6 2020 93 96 +3 2019 93 99 +6 2018 96 98 +2 2017 99 98 -1 2016 91 99 +8 2015 93 98 +5 2014 92 96 +4 2013 96 101 +5 2012 99 104 +5 2011 102 108 +6 2010 98 103 +5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 back to very humid conditions today.. i had forgotten what it felt like.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 74/68 and .27 in the bucket from the earlier rains. Satellite does show more breaks in the clouds so we will see how warm it gets today. Warmer pattern today through Thu (7/29), with Tue perhaps being the hottest day with 850 temps >16c in parts and may allow the warmer spots mid to perhaps upper 90s range in the extreme. We are skirting the north edge of the heat and bit more ridging would mean stronger heat and cooler if the flow pushed more northerly. So could see a day (wed) back near normal before warmup ahead of the front. Beyond there a bit back and forth next weekend Fri (7/30) - Sun (8/1) where there looks to be cooler air followed by a brief return (12-24) hours of some heat and that looks like Sunday (8/1). Could be interesting with such a contrast of the heat and cooler weather near the regios. Beyond there Aug looks to open cooler before more heat from the west pushes east and we'll see if the W. Atlantic ridge builds west in the Wed 8/4 and beyond period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend. Next weekend looks interesting as the 00Z ECM 24 hours later has heat just south of the region and temps near 90 on Sunday 8/1 for a brief period. With still a week out you wonder if it trends more cooler (troughy) or if it corrects warmer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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