bluewave Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average temperatures than June. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season 2021 74.4 71.2 72.8 1976 73.4 72.9 73.2 1930 72.4 72.8 72.6 1994 71.9 77.5 74.7 1949 71.6 76.3 73.9 1957 71.3 74.1 72.7 2001 71.1 69.9 70.5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 I this weather right now kind of hoping we can dry out a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will become partly to mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. A few locations could see upper 80s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 87° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4° Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I see it more likely in the fall and winter rather than spring and summer because of our subtropical rain forest type of rainfall pattern now lol. Could you imagine December 2015 type extremes happening in July? One can only dream..... Of course the temperatures can't ever be that far above normal in the summer, but I was thinking more along the lines of standard deviation. What happened in Seattle was just over 4 sigma above the normal high temperature. The 108F peak temperature there would be the equivalent of 112F in Central Park. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 When was last July below avg temp wise? 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: When was last July below avg temp wise? 2009? Which was based on the 1970-2000 numbers…now we 1990-2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 Just now, psv88 said: Which was based on the 1970-2000 numbers…now we 1990-2020 Still feels good honestly but I know we’re going to have humidity galore still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: What happened in Seattle was just over 4 sigma above the normal high temperature. The 108F peak temperature there would be the equivalent of 112F in Central Park. Don what about December 2015 for us, how far above normal was that? And conversely, the cold of February 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: Still feels good honestly but I know we’re going to have humidity galore still I hate humidity too, we need to do something about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average temperatures than June. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season 2021 74.4 71.2 72.8 1976 73.4 72.9 73.2 1930 72.4 72.8 72.6 1994 71.9 77.5 74.7 1949 71.6 76.3 73.9 1957 71.3 74.1 72.7 2001 71.1 69.9 70.5 Could we have a cooler July avg than June too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Could we have a cooler July avg than June too? July has been much warmer in our area than Boston. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season Mean 73.5 79.9 76.7 2021 76.2 79.5 77.9 2020 74.4 80.8 77.6 2019 72.7 80.6 76.7 2018 72.1 78.2 75.2 2017 72.7 77.3 75.0 2016 72.9 79.9 76.4 2015 72.0 79.0 75.5 2014 72.8 77.0 74.9 2013 73.3 80.9 77.1 2012 72.4 80.8 76.6 2011 74.5 82.7 78.6 2010 76.2 82.3 79.3 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season Mean 73.6 80.2 76.9 2021 75.6 78.0 76.8 2020 75.9 82.9 79.4 2019 72.8 81.5 77.2 2018 72.9 79.8 76.4 2017 73.6 78.1 75.9 2016 73.6 81.1 77.4 2015 71.3 79.2 75.3 2014 72.5 77.0 74.8 2013 74.0 81.2 77.6 2012 72.9 80.4 76.7 2011 72.7 80.4 76.6 2010 76.0 82.8 79.4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The big weather swings pattern continues. After portions of New England had their warmest June on record, they will now be the center of the cooler pattern. Only the 3rd time that Boston had lower July average temperatures than June. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season 2021 74.4 71.2 72.8 1976 73.4 72.9 73.2 1930 72.4 72.8 72.6 1994 71.9 77.5 74.7 1949 71.6 76.3 73.9 1957 71.3 74.1 72.7 2001 71.1 69.9 70.5 the next hot spell looks to start in about a week on the ensembles. maybe the western ridge can flatten enough for 100 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 I was just down in North Carolina and it was some 10-15 degrees warmer than on Long Island today. It feels hotter and more uncomfortable here than there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don what about December 2015 for us, how far above normal was that? And conversely, the cold of February 2015? Both were 3 sigma events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 feels nice 73 degrees at the time of day in mid july i will take it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 Another day with backdoor kind of feel in mid summer. Cloudy, periods of rain and drizzle all day temps stuck in low 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, dWave said: Another day with backdoor kind of feel in mid summer. Cloudy, periods of rain and drizzle all day temps stuck in low 70s. you have rain/drizzle? Nothing here-just mainly cloudy with a couple breaks of sun here/there 76. Looks like the disturbance is beginning to move out so should see increasing sun especially the further west one is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 even on a non backdoor front day there's a divide near the city. these patterns can't unstick themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: you have rain/drizzle? Nothing here-just mainly cloudy with a couple breaks of sun here/there 76. Looks like the disturbance is beginning to move out so should see increasing sun especially the further west one is. It has been in and out drizzle all day here, the last shower went through around 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 its been sunny most of the day out here and 86.3 degrees now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 Had a brief shower a short time ago...hi temp of 80°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 Sun was out earlier this afternoon, clouds have now taken over. Currently 79 here, DP 64/ RH 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 High for the day was 88 here. Current temp 86/DP 63/RH 46% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 Once that last shower went thru around 2 it cleared up, dried out and got kinda nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 19, 2021 Share Posted July 19, 2021 78 degrees here, dew point 70, humidity 76%, feels better than early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Clouds broke during the afternoon and temperatures rose into the upper 70s and lower to middle 80s. In Montana, extreme heat prevailed. Glasgow reached 110°, which broke the daily record of 107° from 1941. The 110° temperature was the 3rd highest on record. At Boise, the overnight low temperature was 80°. The previous daily record high minimum temperature was 72°, which was set in 1877 and tied in 1918 and 2009. Tomorrow will feature hazy sunshine and very warm temperatures. The haze will be the result of wildfires burning in the U.S. and Canadian West. Temperatures will surge into the upper 80s and lower 90s. In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +8.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.722 today. On July 17 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.307 (RMM). The July 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.999 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 7/19 PHL: 88 TTN: 86 EWR: 86 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 85 BLM: 84 TEB: 83 JFK: 82 LGA: 82 NYC: 81 ISP: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 20, 2021 Author Share Posted July 20, 2021 SVR thread for 8P-!A se NYS CT dying out I80 near or after midnight then another risk Wed afternoon, entire forum but probably mostly I95 corridor eastward. Will detail a little more around 730A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/92), or +3 Same proviso as yesterday here. Month to date is 76.4[-1.0]. Should be 77.5[+0 3] by the 28th. Near 90 today with few clouds till late today. 74*(80%RH) here at 6am, dirty blue. 80* by 10am. 82* by Noon. 83* by 2pm.---dirty sky, dirty air. Reached 86*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 20, 2021 Share Posted July 20, 2021 Thickest smoke of the year so far looks like a milky thin overcast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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