July 2021

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Earlier storm totals

 

EWR: 1.97
LDJ (linden( : 0.64
TEB: 0.38
NYC: 0.29

 

And more to come now with the line of storms in NNJ

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region again saw temperatures surge into the 90s. However, a cold front that has already triggered thunderstorms will break the heat in much of the region.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 17):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 15 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 26 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 14 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 7 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 19 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 15 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 15 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 24 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 20 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 22 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 14 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 15 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will start out with clouds and possible showers and thundershowers. The clouds could break during the afternoon and humidity levels could fall. It will be cooler than today.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

Out West, some of the long-range guidance, including the latest EPS weeklies, suggest that a new expansive heat dome could develop over the western third of the United States and Canada toward the end of July or during the first week of August and then persist toward mid-month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +30.41 today. This was the third consecutive day on which the SOI was at +30.00 or above. The last time that happened was during December 17-19, 2020 when the SOI was at or above +30.00 for three consecutive days.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.363 today.

On July 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.967 (RMM). The July 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.970 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

 

 

[Santa Claus]

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.54" of rain for the day yesterday.

High for the day yesterday was 97 here.

Picked up 0.12" of rain so far today.

Current temp 73/DP 71/RH 96%

[bluewave]

This is probably the 3 wettest Julys in a row that our area experienced. Notice how this is the 3rd top 10 wettest July since 2019 at BDR.  Two consecutive years at Newark. 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1971	12.84	0
2	1988	8.53	0
3	1960	8.13	0
4	2021	7.74	14
5	2019	7.57	0
6	1973	6.55	0
7	1984	6.54	0
8	1975	6.48	0
9	1950	6.29	0
10	2020	6.10	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2020	11.22	0
2	1988	9.98	0
3	1984	8.65	0
4	2004	8.39	0
5	1996	8.27	0
6	1975	8.02	0
7	1938	7.96	0
8	1961	7.95	0
9	2021	7.80	14
10	1967	7.53	0

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1889	11.89	0
2	1975	11.77	0
3	1897	9.56	0
4	2021	9.11	14
5	1928	8.89	0
6	1880	8.53	0
7	1919	8.50	0
8	1997	8.36	0
9	1960	8.29	0
10	1988	8.14	0

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 79degs.(72/87), or +1.0.

Month to date is  76.3[-1.0].         Should be about  77.2[-0.4] by the 26th.

Tropics look dead with the Easterly Waves continuous, but emerging too close to the equator to get any spin.

We may still reach 10.5" for the month.        July 27---Aug.02 could be on the dry side however.     This Wed./Thur. might be rain free too.

73*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast.         Reached 84* at 5pm.

[bluewave]

We are on track for a cooler late July than the last few years. So the record heat at the end of June will hold as the warmest part of the summer so far. Tough to restart 100° heat once a pattern becomes so wet. 
 

[wdrag]

Good Sunday morning, As we clear the past week with only residual possible heavy convection north of I84 this afternoon (thread ongoing but probably dead for the most part [11-19])... as noted above, we're heading into a seasonable last two weeks of July..less risk of formidable threats-threads for us.

My next consideration: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this but Tue night or Wed, if timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread (faster moving cold front with better instability and wind parameters for a brief event), but for now no go-just monitoring for myself. 

Won't start August thread yet, but previously noted by someone, EC EPS seems to favor warmer than normal and wetter than normal in August, and most recent CPC week 3-4 outlook does the same for the beginning of August.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

With rainfall through 8 am, July rainfall in New York City has reached 9.14”. That makes 2021 the 4th wettest July on record.

At 8:30, a few small showers were working northeastward in northern New Jersey. Any rain will end this morning. The clouds could break during the afternoon. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 83°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

With rainfall through 8 am, July rainfall in New York City has reached 9.14”. That makes 2021 the 4th wettest July on record.

At 8:30, a few small showers were working northeastward in northern New Jersey. Any rain will end this morning. The clouds could break during the afternoon. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 83°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 83°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant.

Don what do you think of this?  Maybe measuring our averages by heat index rather than temperature would give a truer picture of our weather, since it seems like our summer highs won't be going up as much because of higher humidity?

TWC did a piece on climate change and in it they said we should be keeping track of heat indices as a measure of heat rather than temperature because humidity is a component of higher heat.  They said our thirty year averages should consist of heat index rather than just temperature and that the temperatures out west were likely to rise much more due to climate change than temperatures in the east would because higher humidity and rainfall will cap out our temperatures and make them less extreme than what the west will get.  But they said if we measured our averages by heat index that will give a truer indication of the new climate rather than measuring them by temperature alone.

Going by that, JFK's record heat was 117 which we got on back to back days just a couple of years ago (actual temp was 99 but it felt like the hottest I've ever experienced here thanks to the humidity.)  What do you think of measuring heat by heat index rather than temperature?  So a hot day would be a day with a heat index of 90 and we would also keep track of 100+ days as very hot days.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what do you think of this?  Maybe measuring our averages by heat index rather than temperature would give a truer picture of our weather, since it seems like our summer highs won't be going up as much because of higher humidity?

TWC did a piece on climate change and in it they said we should be keeping track of heat indices as a measure of heat rather than temperature because humidity is a component of higher heat.  They said our thirty year averages should consist of heat index rather than just temperature and that the temperatures out west were likely to rise much more due to climate change than temperatures in the east would because higher humidity will cap out our temperatures and make them less extreme than what the west will get.  But they said if we measured our averages by heat index that will give a truer indication of the new climate rather than measuring them by temperature alone.

Going by that, JFK's record heat was 117 which we got on back to back days just a couple of years ago (actual temp was 99 but it felt like the hottest I've ever experienced here thanks to the humidity.)  What do you think of measuring heat by heat index rather than temperature?  So a hot day would be a day with a heat index of 90 and we would also keep track of 100+ days as very hot days.

All measures are important in providing a full picture of the climate. Outside of the increasingly dense “forest” in Central Park mean summer high temperatures are rising.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

All measures are important in providing a full picture of the climate. Outside of the increasingly dense “forest” in Central Park mean summer high temperatures are rising.

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

Much of what you are getting at is determined by wind direction since we live on the coast. LGA essentially tied its 2010 JJA average high temperature last year. But since the flow was more onshore, JFK couldn’t. We finally got more westerly flow in June when Newark got the new all-time June high of 103°. Corona Queens also made to 103° away from the sea breeze. But the westerly flow couldn’t make it down to the coast. For westerly flow to make it to places like JFK and ISP, the ridge needs to centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This summer has seen a spilt between the WAR and Rockies Ridge. The last several summers have featured a dominant WAR. This allows a much wetter pattern for higher humidity heat. So we have had numerous top 10 summers for heat and individual summer months since 2015. An all-time summer maximum high temperature generally requires a severe drought in the source region of the heat like Seattle just experienced. The last all-time summer max for us was the 108° at Newark in July of 2011. That historic heat originated over the record drought of the Southern Plains. 

[SACRUS]

80/72 and mostly cloudy with peaks of sunshine with fast moving clouds.  Still a bit unsettled as the front moves through so scattered showers, and storms.  Front will likely fully clear and earlier concerns of a cloudier monday look to be alleviated.  Western ridge means business and will bake the western US Rockies and Plains.  Tuesday (7/20) and Wednesday (7-21)flatter western flow could push the warmer spots to 90 before front comes through wed.  Truughing into the northeast Thu (7/22) into next weekend and despite the lower heights hot air from the west pushes east.  It looks like when we can flatten the flow or pop heights we can get some heat into the area but it'll be a fine line between near normal / cooler than normal (dry) and some stronger heat next weekend into the week of 7/26.  Beyond there the western atlantic ridge is expanding west as we close out the month.  Western heat  - trough into the GL, warm - hot humd pattern may return to start next month.  Should these ridges link, then its off to the races 2001 style, but thats way out there.  Best to bet on any dry periods being brief for now and bias warm once  to next or past next weekend

[SACRUS]

Monthly rain totals (so far through 7/17):

 

NYC: 9.16
EWR: 7.81
TEB: 6.62
LGA: 6.03
TTN: 5.41
JFK: 4.07
ISP: 4.66

[bluewave]

JFK is on track for the first 6 year stretch of 10 or more days reaching  a 75° or higher dew point. 
 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Actually feels somewhat tolerable outside 

[SACRUS]

Dewpoints dropping from the lower 70s this morning now closer to the 62-65 range.  Also, more pokes of sunshine than otherwise would have expected.  Not a bad day.

[SACRUS]

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[SACRUS]

Both 2012, 2013 were in the midst of some record heat today/yesterday.  2011 as well.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Dewpoints dropping from the lower 70s this morning now closer to the 62-65 range.  Also, more pokes of sunshine than otherwise would have expected.  Not a bad day.

It’s amazing how much of a difference that 10-degree dewpoint drop makes!  Feels great outside, even though it’s still pretty moist!

[donsutherland1]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

What happened in the Pacific Northwest was unprecedented. There will be extreme heat in our region at some point. Things are warming and eventually it will happen. I would be surprised if it didn’t happen this decade.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasantly warm. Temperatures will again surge into the upper 80s and lower 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday before the next cold front crosses the region.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +17.30 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.791 today.

On July 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.995 (RMM). The July 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.970 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/18:

EWR: 86
LGA: 86
JFK: 85
TEB: 85
ACY: 85
BLM: 84
NYC: 84
ISP: 83
New Brnswck: 83
PHL: 80
TTN: 79

[JustinRP37]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But we are not getting the kind of extremes places like Seattle are getting.  I'm rather disappointed in the summer here, we haven't had an extreme summer like 2010 since then.  Maybe that will end up being the 1995-96 of summers?

 

It will always be easier to get hotter with drier air, hence Seattle. 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Much of what you are getting at is determined by wind direction since we live on the coast. LGA essentially tied its 2010 JJA average high temperature last year. But since the flow was more onshore, JFK couldn’t. We finally got more westerly flow in June when Newark got the new all-time June high of 103°. Corona Queens also made to 103° away from the sea breeze. But the westerly flow couldn’t make it down to the coast. For westerly flow to make it to places like JFK and ISP, the ridge needs to centered over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This summer has seen a spilt between the WAR and Rockies Ridge. The last several summers have featured a dominant WAR. This allows a much wetter pattern for higher humidity heat. So we have had numerous top 10 summers for heat and individual summer months since 2015. An all-time summer maximum high temperature generally requires a severe drought in the source region of the heat like Seattle just experienced. The last all-time summer max for us was the 108° at Newark in July of 2011. That historic heat originated over the record drought of the Southern Plains. 

That's why I'm wondering if the kind of extremely high temps like we saw in 2010 and 2011 is going to happen less often now in the summer because climate change has made the WAR much stronger and its influence has extended further north.  So maybe we're destined to have a Florida type climate with subtropical summers while the West is where the record high temps will be with all that drought?

So I could see our new modified climate consisting of record high temps in the fall and winter and then much rainier and much more humid springs and summers with lots of extremely high dew points and high mins and higher than normal highs, but not the kind of extremes that give us record highs (except for when the record highs are in the low or mid 90s).

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

It will always be easier to get hotter with drier air, hence Seattle. 

yeah and may I also add that hot and dry is a lot healthier than hot and humid.  When it's hot and dry I have much less breathing issues and no allergies while it's painful for me when it's hot and humid and the bugs multiply like crazy.

Actually it doesn't even have to be hot, just very humid with temps in the 70s is unhealthy, with poor air quality and all its issues.  Water vapor is a pollutant.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

What happened in the Pacific Northwest was unprecedented. There will be extreme heat in our region at some point. Things are warming and eventually it will happen. I would be surprised if it didn’t happen this decade.

I see it more likely in the fall and winter rather than spring and summer because of our subtropical rain forest type of rainfall pattern now lol.  Could you imagine December 2015 type extremes happening in July?  One can only dream.....

Of course the temperatures can't ever be that far above normal in the summer, but I was thinking more along the lines of standard deviation.

 

[wdrag]

 

Tuesday night or a bit more likely midday Wed: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this if somehow timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread.  Instab parameters, esp TT are increasing (lower 50's).   Down here in our subforum I know it's pushing it for Wed, . but am thinking a bit more about NJ/LI as SVR risk Noon-4P..sort of early in the day & sfc cnv not the greatest look but Marginal risk may need to be added somewhere down in the southern part of the subforum in future projections for Wed. For now continue just monitoring for myself. 

[CIK62]

NB.   The GFS is undergoing treatment again.    It has 7 90's in the next 10 days------the EURO/CMC have none between them.   

Little rain till the 25th/26th.

The next 8 days are averaging 82degs.,(73/91), or +4.

Month to date is  76.4[-1.0].       Should be 78.1[+0.6] by the 27th.

71*(85%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast.           Reached 84* about 6pm.