LoboLeader1 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 93/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Current temp 94/DP 68/RH 44% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Up to 91 here. Today just seems to be one of the most hideous days yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 I think you'll have a very hot August, when this western heat ridge flattens out a bit more even if only half of its effect reaches the east coast it will be like 1944 with prolonged mid to high 90s. Where I live (about 150 miles north of Spokane WA near the border) we have averaged an incredible 100F for a max over thirty days now. Normal here is about 86F. These super hot temperatures broke records set in mid-July 1941. If you look at what happened after that, the temperature often went above normal in the east and peaked in early October in relative terms, with October's highest temperature at NYC of 94F recorded. So in that case it took about 2.5 months for the heat to translate east. It may be a bit faster this time, if not then September may be the most anomalous month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 88/77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 We should see a break in the heat after tomorrow during what is typically our hottest time of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 95° will do it for high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 Officially tabulated my 4th heatwave this year Now 21 days above 90 and we have a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 16, 2021 Share Posted July 16, 2021 I believe this was my first “official” heat wave. 90, 90, 92 As pathetic of a heat wave as it may appear each day saw heat indicies above 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures surged into the lower and middle 90s across the region. 90° Days for Select Cities (through July 16): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 14 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 25 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 14 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 7 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 18 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 14 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 14 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 11 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 23 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 19 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 11 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 21 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 13 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 14 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) The weekend could see more clouds and perhaps thundershowers. In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3. Out West, some of the long-range guidance, including the latest EPS weeklies, suggest that a new expansive heat dome could develop over the western third of the United States and Canada toward the end of July or during the first week of August and then persist toward mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +33.05 today. This was the second consecutive day on which the SOI was at +30.00 or above. The last time that happened was during December 17-19, 2020 when the SOI was at or above +30.00 for three consecutive days. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.363 today. On July 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.970 (RMM). The July 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.939 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.9° (0.6° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 7/16 EWR: 96 LGA: 95 ACY: 94 PHL: 94 BLM: 94 TEB: 93 New Brnswck: 93 TTN: 91 NYC: 91 ISP: 89 JFK: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 94 here, those 90 days are adding up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Tiny shower overhead with inch per hour rates. 92/74 split today, averages out to the warmest day of the year so far, although it wasn’t the warmest high of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 94° as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 High for the day was 96 here. Current temp 82/DP 71/RH 70% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Good morning pretty warm here in the hamptons still temperature this early 6:40am at 73 degrees and kinda muggy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/88), or +2.0. Month to date is 76.0[-1.3]. Should be 77.4[-0.2] by the 25th. 80*(75%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. (was 79* at 5am) 82* by 9am. After the early PM showers, it cleared late and T zoomed to 88* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Temps on the rise quickly again this morning. Current temp 84/DP 72/RH 76% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and very warm today. An approaching cold front will trigger showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce damaging winds and flooding downpours. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 93° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.3°; 15-Year: 86.4° Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.2° Rain should end during tomorrow morning and clouds could break. It will be cooler. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Temp already up to 90 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 88/73 and a few hours before clouds/storms arrive with a cold front. Should notch 90s area wide before the PM storms. Cool front comes through later and slow to clear by Mon pm. Wouldnt take too much if Monday remained more cloudy as these fronts crawl through. Beyond there near normal for the hottest peak of summer. The warmer spots may touch 90 Tue and Wed but its less Florida like and with less rain. Heat factory out west in full production. Pieces of that heat will break off eastwards and despite a trough into the northeast its a matter of how far north the heat can get in the 7/24 - 7/26 period. Beyond there to end the month it looks like that heat out west grows eastward with the Western Atlantic Ridge progressing westwards by early next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Departures through 7/17 EWR: +2.1 BLM: +2.0 TTN: +1.3 ISP: +0.7 LGA: +0.6 TEB: +0.3 JFK: +0.1 NYC: -0.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 Some photos from Robert Moses State Park yesterday. The sea breeze kept temperatures in the middle 80s. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(71/88), or +2.0. Month to date is 76.0[-1.3]. Should be 77.4[-0.2] by the 25th. 80*(75%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. (was 79* at 5am) 82* by 9am. I must have NYC using different averages? I am showing -0.2 thrugh 16-Jul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 This is an odd looking departure map for July. Looks more like a spring backdoor pattern. Warmer west of NYC away from the onshore influence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 11AM Round up The heat is on ahead of the front EWR: 90 ACY: 90 New Brnswck: 90 BLM: 88 PHL: 88 EWR: 87 NYC: 87 LGA: 87 TEB: 87 TTN: 87 ISP: 85 JFK: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is an odd looking departure map for July. Looks more like a spring backdoor pattern. Warmer west of NYC away from the onshore influence. July 3 and Jul 13 were the main culprits so far with this month's lower departures but that is aninteresting catch on the onshore NE sections and NE. We'll see if Sunday can reach 80 with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, SACRUS said: July 3 and Jul 13 were the main culprits so far with this month's lower departures but that is aninteresting catch on the onshore NE sections and NE. We'll see if Sunday can reach 80 with storms. It’s the reason that EWR has 23 days of 90° and LGA only 14 through yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 17, 2021 Share Posted July 17, 2021 43 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is an odd looking departure map for July. Looks more like a spring backdoor pattern. Warmer west of NYC away from the onshore influence. I'm further inland and it has definitely been quite hot even for July standards (1-2F AN). I do think we'll get closer to normal with more near normal to even below normal weather after today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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