July 2021

[psv88]

1 hour ago, binbisso said:

 Central Park 10 laguardia 10 White Plains 8 just did my research I'm not too far off and  they are less than half of what Newark has  would love to know what philly and Trenton  have as far as 90ﾟ days 

LGA I believe is 11. You bet that they all had less than 10

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, temperatures surged into the 80s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. South of there, especially from Newark, temperatures rose into the 90s.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 12):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 13 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 21 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 13 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 6 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 15 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 13 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 5 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 11 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 10 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 20 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 16 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 11 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 17 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 12 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 12 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and cooler in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Washington, DC to Philadelphia will likely see readings surge into the lower and middle 90s.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +17.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.253 today.

On July 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.381 (RMM). The July 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.329 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 46% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.3° (0.2° below normal).

 

[SACRUS]

7/12

EWR: 93
PHL: 92
BLM: 91
ACY: 91
New Brnswck: 90
TTN: 90
TEB: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 86
ISP: 82
LGA: 82

[SACRUS]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

LGA I believe is 11. You bet that they all had less than 10

2021:

PHL:  16 (April: 0; May: 3  ; June: 9 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug:  ; Sep:  )
EWR: 20(April: 0; May: 4  ; June: 12 ; Jul: 4 ; Aug: ; Sep:  )
TTN: 12 (April:0 ; May: 1  ; June: 8 ; Jul: 3 ; Aug: ; Sep: )
LGA: 11 (April: 0; May: ; June: 9 ; Jul: 2; Aug: ; Sep: )
ACY: 12 (April: 0; May:2 ; June: 6 ; Jul: 4  ; Aug:  ; Sep: )
TEB: 11 (April: 0; May: ; June: 9 ; Jul:  2  ; Aug: ; Sep:  )
NYC: 10 (April: 0 ; May:  ; June: 8; Jul: 2; Aug:  ; Sep: )
JFK: 5  (April: 0; May: 2 ; June: 3 ; Jul:  ; Aug: ; Sep: )
ISP: 3(April: 0; May:1 ; June: 1 ; Jul:1 ; Aug:   ; Sep: )
New Bnswk: 17 (April: 0 , May: 3, June: 10, July: 4; Aug:  ;Sep:;  )
BLM: 18

 

89 degree days

EWR: 3
ACY: 4
PHL: 4
TTN: 4
NYC: 2
ISP: 3
BLM: 2
TEB: 3 89
JFK: 2
LGA: 2

[lee59]

For whatever reason, Newark is the hottest major recording station in our area in the summer. I believe the local environment of concrete, maybe all the chemical and industrial facilities nearby, the wide open space of a major airport and with many large planes and that sun beating down on all the tarmac, probably has a play in those temperature readings. I don't think the readings are wrong, just a product of the environment, just like Central Park is a product of that environment.

[the_other_guy]

I wish there were as many complaints about the EWR readings as there were about CPK.

When you see EWR hotter than anywhere else including PHL, something is off

[doncat]

Have had 15,  90° days at my station so far.

[Rjay]

After all the evidence posted by Bluewave over the last couple of months we're still going with, "something must be wrong with Newark's temp readings!!".  

 

Also Newark is mostly in line with interior Queens as posted by Bluewave several times.  

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 94

Picked up 0.69" of rain for the day.

Current temp 72/DP 69/RH 93%

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 81 here yesterday. Current temp 67/DP 66/RH 93

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, Rjay said:

After all the evidence posted by Bluewave over the last couple of months we're still going with, "something must be wrong with Newark's temp readings!!".  

 

Also Newark is mostly in line with interior Queens as posted by Bluewave several times.  

Both are cement jungles isolated from the nearby water…thus skewing temp

readings warmer than surrounding areas.

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

I wish there were as many complaints about the EWR readings as there were about CPK.

When you see EWR hotter than anywhere else including PHL, something is off

 

Newark is accurate.This summer is an over the top heat pattern. So DCA to Philly is running cooler than points further north. Notice how Corona, Queens reached 103° like Newark at the end of June. The Caldwell station to the NW also has 20 days that reached 90° this year so far.
 

Summer 2021 highs so far

Boston…….100°

Hartford…..99°

LGA…….….100°

Corona……103°

Newark…..103°

Philly……….97°

DCA………..95°

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2021	20	172

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
2021	20	172

[the_other_guy]

Per the NWS. And what you find is that when you look at an urban place you can’t meet that standard

https://www.weather.gov/coop/sitingpolicy2

 

Temperature sensor siting: The sensor should be mounted 5 feet +/- 1 foot above the ground. The ground over which the shelter [radiation] is located should be typical of the surrounding area. A level, open clearing is desirable so the thermometers are freely ventilated by air flow. Do not install the sensor on a steep slope or in a sheltered hollow unless it is typical of the area or unless data from that type of site are desired. When possible, the shelter should be no closer than four times the height of any obstruction (tree, fence, building, etc.). The sensor should be at least 100 feet from any paved or concrete surface.”

 

 

 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.[73/88], or +2.0.

Month to date is  75.0[-2.0].          Should be 77.0[-0.4] by the 21st.

EURO/CMC have  1  90 between them for the next 10 days.    The GFS has 5.{06Z has 7} {12z has 8}    All keep nuisance rains or worse, till about the 19th/20th, in the mix.

71*(96%RH), here at 6am---fog and misty rain.    70* at 7am.

 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

100 feet from any paved or concrete surface.”

It may be easier to do this at the airport since the ASOS units are placed on open grassy strips away from the paved surfaces. In the downtown parts of the city, it may be harder to find grassy areas away from buildings or pavement. So you can see how our only really compromised site is Central Park since it sits underneath trees.

 

[tim]

...beach weather this month so far has been NG..many days of clouds, wind,fog  has made the 1st 13 days of July not exactly chamber of commerce weather..i guess it helps the stores..Westhampton Beach village was packed on sunday afternoon with people opting to stay off the beaches.

[doncat]

Only rain here yesterday was from the 2am storm which dropped 0.41"...Mtd of 7.35". 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler today. There could still be a scattered shower or thundershower.  Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Philadelphia to Washington, DC will see readings in the 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer.

[bluewave]

This is probably our first mid-July backdoor pattern with such a strong ridge. In the past, these near record heights were associated with around 100° heat. So all the clouds, onshore flow, and rain are keeping temperatures significantly lower.

[rclab]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler today. There could still be a scattered shower or thundershower.  Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Philadelphia to Washington, DC will see readings in the 90s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 91°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.3°; 15-Year: 88.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.1°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer.

 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It may be easier to do this at the airport since the ASOS units are placed on open grassy strips away from the paved surfaces. In the downtown parts of the city, it may be harder to find grassy areas away from buildings or pavement. So you can see how our only really compromised site is Central Park since it sits underneath trees.

 

Good morning Don and BW. I’ve been having a friendly dialogue with John Ceglarek, Project Manager/Central Park Conservancy. I explained to him that I was a non professional member of our weather forum and issues with the accuracy of the readings from the CPK ASOS were often discussed by the Meteorologists, pro forecasters, competent, well versed hobbyists and the basic members like myself. I mentioned to him that from what I could gather, from the discussions, was that the vegetation in, around and encroaching over the ASOS were effecting the accuracy of its temperature readings. His reply stated that “We have not been notified by the Weather Service of any concern they have about the readings for the station or any impact that the surround vegetation may have on it”. I, in reply, asked if the NWS has performed any evaluation of the site, since it’s installation. His response “I am not aware of any assessment that has been performed by the NWS. My understanding is that they would reach out to us if there was any concern about the equipment site”. My original inquiry to the Conservancy is as follows:

“The validity of the temperature readings from the ASOS has been questioned. The American Weather Forum, of which I am a member, often comments on this situation. The comments/observations come from both Meteorologists and well versed hobbyists. The remedy might be as easy as keeping the trees and foliage trimmed around the ASOS site. I dislike the idea that the the long-standing temperature records of the grandest park is in question. Thank you for your time, as always …”.

I believe the sincerity of Mr Ceglarek response and wonder if the board or, at least our sub-forum (with NWS contacts) should pursue this. As always ….

[FPizz]

Thanks rclab.  Someone needs to take a current picture of it and send it to them.  The one pic that I always see posted seems like it has been going around for years.  Maybe having a current pic of the overgrown vegetation would get them to the site to take care of things.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, rclab said:

 

Good morning Don and BW. I’ve been having a friendly dialogue with John Ceglarek, Project Manager/Central Park Conservancy. I explained to him that I was a non professional member of our weather forum and issues with the accuracy of the readings from the CPK ASOS were often discussed by the Meteorologists, pro forecasters, competent, well versed hobbyists and the basic members like myself. I mentioned to him that from what I could gather, from the discussions, was that the vegetation in, around and encroaching over the ASOS were effecting the accuracy of its temperature readings. His reply stated that “We have not been notified by the Weather Service of any concern they have about the readings for the station or any impact that the surround vegetation may have on it”. I, in reply, asked if the NWS has performed any evaluation of the site, since it’s installation. His response “I am not aware of any assessment that has been performed by the NWS. My understanding is that they would reach out to us if there was any concern about the equipment site”. My original inquiry to the Conservancy is as follows:

“The validity of the temperature readings from the ASOS has been questioned. The American Weather Forum, of which I am a member, often comments on this situation. The comments/observations come from both Meteorologists and well versed hobbyists. The remedy might be as easy as keeping the trees and foliage trimmed around the ASOS site. I dislike the idea that the the long-standing temperature records of the grandest park is in question. Thank you for your time, as always …”.

I believe the sincerity of Mr Ceglarek response and wonder if the board or, at least our sub-forum (with NWS contacts) should pursue this. As always ….

It’s more than likely that any NWS outreach occurred prior to Mr. Ceglarek’s tenure, possibly the late 1990s or early 2000s.

[psv88]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Both are cement jungles isolated from the nearby water…thus skewing temp

readings warmer than surrounding areas.

The newark sensor is not even at the airport…it’s located in an adjacent property over grass. Read that statement again.

next, much of the city and NE NJ is a concrete jungle, so the readings are representative of the area. 

[SACRUS]

 

Cloudy most of the day but any clearing for any prolonged gaps/periods should see temps spike to near 90 S/CNJ perhaps north.  Western Atlantic Ridge is pumping the humidity and heat and associated Florida like routine storms/rain.  Wed (7/14_ - Sat (7/17) 850 temps >16c peaking near 18-19C by Fri.  Look for temps in low to mid 90sperhaps an upper 90s Thu or Fri when rain chances are less.

By Sat evening (7/17)  / Sun (7/18) cold front and upper level weakness in the ridge should produce additional rain/clouds to end the weekend and start the work week (7/19)  Western ridge pumps heights centered into the Rockies then Plains and pieces of that heat ride east and delivery more heat into the region by the middle /end of next week. 

 

Overall warm to hot with Florida style humidity and frequent storms continues.  

[SACRUS]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

 

[SACRUS]

Departures through the 12th 

EWR:  +1.4
TTN: +0.9
NYC: -1.1
JFK: -0.5
LGA: -0.2

[forkyfork]

i drive by the newark asos all the time. the grassy area under it isn't as small as some think it is

[uncle W]

43 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s more than likely that any NWS outreach occurred prior to Mr. Ceglarek’s tenure, possibly the late 1990s or early 2000s.

then they don't care about the problem...it could be a question about who will pay for the foilage trimming...

[495weatherguy]

On 7/7/2021 at 2:36 PM, forkyfork said:

what happened to the heat?

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s more than likely that any NWS outreach occurred prior to Mr. Ceglarek’s tenure, possibly the late 1990s or early 2000s.

Yeah, that is probably the case. Recent studies have shown how much lower the temperatures are under an urban tree canopy. The older Central Park observations weren’t located under the canopy like they are now. So it’s no surprise that NYC had more 90° and 100° days back then. This recent study found significant temperature differences between open and forested parts of parks. The differences in Central Park summer high temperatures before 1990 and after seem to match their study. The paper in the link goes into more detail than the news article. The 1990 date is around the time that the canopy began to cover the observation site.

https://www.ncel.net/2019/09/01/canopy-tree-cover-can-drastically-reduce-heat-island-effect/

Results: Researchers found an urban tree canopy of at least 40% results in the most cooling – as much as four to five degrees Celsius (seven to nine degrees Fahrenheit). Anything less than 40% canopy cover results in very small amounts of cooling.

Since this threshold was previously unknown, researchers hope this will guide strategies for increasing tree cover. Trees are often planted in wealthier neighborhoods. Therefore, distributing planting to be more equitable can help to not only lower temperatures but also bring mental and physical health benefits to the community. 

Resources:

• Read the full study through PNAS.