July 2021

[donsutherland1]

Clouds broke for sunshine this afternoon sending temperatures into the 80s in many places. Tomorrow will see more clouds than sun, along with showers and thundershowers.

Out West, another bout of extreme heat is underway. Already, some impressive high temperatures have occurred. Select readings today included:

Death Valley: 129° (old record: 128°, 2002*)
Fresno: 111°
Las Vegas: 116° (old record: 114°, 2003 and 2012)
Needles, CA: 122° (old record: 121°, 2003)
Phoenix: 112°
Redding, CA: 114°

* - 134° in 1913 is unreliable.

Tomorrow will be another scorching day. By the end of the heatwave, Death Valley could be near or even above its annual record of 10 125° or above days. That record was set in 1913 (unreliable) and then tied in 2013 and 2017.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +16.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.814 today.

On July 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.003(RMM). The July 7-adjusted amplitude was 0.957 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.7° (0.2° above normal).

[ILoveWinter]

I like to experience summer time T storms as much as the rest of us but it's been relentless in the past week (here in Manhattan anyway) and looks to repeat this coming week. A few mostly sunny days without the need to worry about an afternoon or evening soaker would be nice!

[Rjay]

27 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it is almost mid july the days of summer are winding down..

Can't wait til I can start the winter is winding down posts on January 1st.  

[SI Mailman]

A view of the cell coming from CitiField.

[weathermedic]

11 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

A view of the cell coming from CitiField.

Slow mover which has prompted a flood advisory for Manhattan and Queens.

[Santa Claus]

49 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

it is almost mid july the days of summer are winding down..

what the f are you talking about

[SACRUS]

7/10

EWR: 86
New Brnswck: 85
PHL: 85
ACY: 85
TTN: 84
TEB: 84
LGA: 81
NYC: 81
BLM: 80
ISP: 80
JFK: 80

[TriPol]

Another day, another storm.

[nycwinter]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Another day, another storm.

haha i was about to post that

[nycwinter]

0.16 in central park..

[TriPol]

Something wrong with the local radars? Only accuweather is showing that it's rading. NOAA Radar and Weather.com don't show any rain in our area at all.

[stemwinder]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

it is almost mid july the days of summer are winding down..

Ha Ha - IMO the days of summer start winding down after about August 15, when the water is at its warmest, the trees are full of yakking katydids, the nights are (maybe) a bit cooler, and certainly deeper, and the fields are buzzing with crickets.  That's just the beginning of the best part of Summer, provided it hasn't been too dry.  Also, the hemp is maybe starting to show flowers, if that is of any interest, but that's only for the botanists among us.

 

[Santa Claus]

Just now, stemwinder said:

Also, the hemp is maybe starting to show flowers, if that is of any interest, but that's only for the botanists among us.

i, too, am a scientist

[psv88]

Perfect out here in Suffolk. Had our block party and it was flawless. No rain and warm 

[CIK62]

 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(72/88), or +2.0.

Month to date is  74.8[-2.2].        Should be  77.2[-0.3] by the 19th.

Precipitable water vectors keep clouds/some rain nearby till the 15th., I think.

72*(95%RH),here at 6am, overcast.

[bluewave]

Tuesday looks like it may be the first time that we had a 597 dm backdoor pattern in July. The forecast 597 dm height is among the highest on record for July. In the past, this has been associated with record heat instead of a cooler easterly flow. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly cloudy. An afternoon or evening shower or thundershower is possible as a warm front slowly edges northward. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 79°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 87°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers.

Extreme heat will topple additional records in parts of the western United States and also in Northern Africa and Spain.

[SACRUS]

Florida style pattern continues.  Plenty of clouds the next 2-3 days.  Piece of energy near the Bahamas now can be tracked Mon - Tue M riding along the rim of the Western Atlantic ridge as it builds westward.  That feature will enhance any storms Tue and into Wed and limit any 90 degree readings with more clouds.  Beyond there hazy, hot, humid later Wed (7/14 - Sat (7/17).  850 temps >18c by Thu (7/15) and Fri  (7/16).  

Sun (7/18) in to early next week looks a bit unsettled as the W Atlt Ridge is shoved east and the Western heat machine surgeds.  Should see pieces of the heat machine peel east pushing heat into the plains, GL and then into the NE.  Next surge of the Atlantic Ridge timing could develop into a very hot finish to July.

 

Overall Florida like humid, hot and plenty of rain chances.  No record heat the next 10 days but the warm to hot pattern continues.

[SACRUS]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

 

[gravitylover]

11 hours ago, Rjay said:

Can't wait til I can start the winter is winding down posts on January 1st.  

Just start the winter cancel thread around Halloween and save the frustration.

[JustinRP37]

I’ve spent a lot of time in Florida during my life and the biggest difference is they still actually see sunshine on days when it rains. I feel like we are more tropical rain forest like with rain every few hours and constant clouds. Lately once it starts to rain it just doesn’t let up. So far this has not been an enjoyable summer for seasonal businesses, pools, golf courses, etc. 

[ILoveWinter]

39 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I’ve spent a lot of time in Florida during my life and the biggest difference is they still actually see sunshine on days when it rains. I feel like we are more tropical rain forest like with rain every few hours and constant clouds. Lately once it starts to rain it just doesn’t let up. So far this has not been an enjoyable summer for seasonal businesses, pools, golf courses, etc. 

Completely agree, its been cloudy fairly persistently with occasional breaks. I'd typically expect a few sunny days in a row in the summer before a system or t storms threaten.  

[donsutherland1]

Clouds yielded to some sunshine this afternoon sending temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The humidity made temperatures feel closer to 90° in many spots.

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and heavy thunderstorms could develop producing flooding in poor drainage areas and adjacent to streams and rivers following the wettest first 10 days on record in July in parts of the region.

Out West, another bout of extreme heat is underway. Already, some impressive high temperatures have occurred. Select readings today included:

Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 127°, 2002)*
Las Vegas: 114°
Needles, CA: 116°
Phoenix: 111°

* - 129° in 1913 is unreliable.

Tomorrow will be another scorching day. Afterward, the heat will ease. By the end of the heatwave, Death Valley could be near or even above its annual record of 10 125° or above days. That record was set in 1913 (unreliable) and then tied in 2013 and 2017.

In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +14.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.913 today.

On July 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.333 (RMM). The July 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.000 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (near normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

7/11

PHL: 88
New Brnswck: 85
ACY: 84
TTN: 84
EWR: 82
LGA: 82
TEB: 82
BLM: 81
ISP: 80
JFK: 79
NYC: 78

[Santa Claus]

saw a beaver on the D&R canal path today

[SRRTA22]

Thats a nice MCS in PA

[Santa Claus]

Tornado Warning
PAC043-120115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.TO.W.0006.210712T0052Z-210712T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
852 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Dauphin County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 915 PM EDT.

* At 852 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both
  tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located over
  Millersburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* These dangerous storms will be near...
  Elizabethville around 900 PM EDT.
  Lykens around 910 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Enders, Gratz, Wiconisco and Halifax.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said:

Thats a nice MCS in PA

Sounds like it could hold together 

 

 

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Mid-Atlantic...New York
and Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120214Z - 120814Z

SUMMARY...The threat for some areas of flash flooding will
continue into the overnight hours from areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...A low amplitude shortwave impulse embedded in deep
layer southwest flow continues to advance progressively off to the
northeast with the energy crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic and
advancing toward southern NY and adjacent areas of southern New
England.

This energy has been driving a fairly large area of heavy showers
and thunderstorms this evening along and adjacent to a
quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across PA. In
fact the latest radar imagery continues to show a forward
propagating MCS advancing toward eastern PA which has been
sustained by a pool of MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg focused
across much of southeast to east-central PA. Stronger mid-level
flow/shear also continues to play a role in storm organization
with this activity.

Well to the north of the front, there has been some heavy
stratiform rain and embedded elevated convection associated with
the warm air advection pattern impacting areas of north-central to
northeast PA and adjacent areas of south-central NY. In fact,
there has also been a notable corridor of enhanced low-level
frontogenetical forcing in the 1000 to 850 mb layer which has
helped to sustain a narrow axis of more enhanced rainfall with
efficient rainfall processes yielding heavier rain rates. PWs have
continued to increase with values of 1.8 to 2 inches in place
given the deeper layer southwest flow advancing through the
Mid-Atlantic states and toward southern NY and southern New
England.

Going into the overnight hours, the aforementioned band of
convection will foster heavy rainfall and at least some flash
flooding concerns for areas of eastern PA, and potentially getting
into parts of northern NJ and far southeast NY. However, this
activity should generally begin to weaken after midnight given an
increasingly stable boundary layer. 

[SRRTA22]

Went from a maritime like airmass with llvl drizzle and easterly winds to a complete sauna.

Can feel the moisture in the air

[Santa Claus]

6 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Went from a maritime like airmass with llvl drizzle and easterly winds to a complete sauna.

Can feel the moisture in the air

storms should hold up enough to drop a bunch of moisture on the ground for tomorrow’s sun-heated steam bath.  which may prompt a more interesting day tomorrow.