wdrag Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Just borrowed on some of the on-going themes for July... as written in June threads, with past 40 year temperature trends supporting some of our posted long range statistical outlooks including those of CPC through today-June 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Newark NJ average July temperature buy decade... 1980-89..........78.31 1990-99..........78.72 2000-09..........76.63 2010-19..........79.89 2020................80.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2021 Share Posted June 29, 2021 Once passed the front/ ULL Jul 1 - 4th, heat rebounds by Jul 6th and it looks very warm - hot into the second week of Jul from this distance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 30, 2021 Author Share Posted June 30, 2021 Invest modeled to turn northward for a possible USA landfall in early July and is it far enough west to contribute to PWAT up here the second week of July? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 another atlantic ridge episode being hinted at on the eps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another atlantic ridge episode being hinted at on the eps Peak climo + mega ridge equals widespread 100s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 30, 2021 Share Posted June 30, 2021 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: another atlantic ridge episode being hinted at on the eps last day on your map is july 10 by that time the sun sets at 828 pm.. already we have lost 3 minutes on the back end of daylight from june 21.. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 That ridge may steer tropical antics towards the SE coast / Florida. Overall warm to hot continues. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Saturday high may be 40 degrees cooler than today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Saturday high may be 40 degrees cooler than today that would be near record low max's if it happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Weekend looks better on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 High for the day yesterday was 100 here. Current temp 75/DP 70/RH 88% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 7 hours ago, SACRUS said: Saturday high may be 40 degrees cooler than today Our next bout of extreme heat and chances for 100 degree temps to the coast? If it does happen I think it will be after July 20th. The heat post July 4th I've been looking at looks like it wont be at these extreme levels (low 90s perhaps?) and then it looks like we'll have a slight cool down (upper 70s and low 80s) going into the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Currently 73*/RH 88%/DP 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 June ended at 74.3[+2.3]. The first 8 days of July are averaging 76degs.(67/84), or slightly BN. It should be raining by early afternoon. GFS,CMC have TS near EC for 7/7-9. EURO is earlier, weaker and completely OTS. 76*(85%RH) here at 6am., scattered clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 72/70 waiting on some rain...the garden needs a good drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Morning thoughts... It will be variably cloudy and cooler today, but still warm. Showers and heavy thunderstorms are likely. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 86° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.1° Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 86.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.6° Daily Rainfall Records for July 1: New York City-JFK: 1.04”, 1960 New York City-LGA: 1.12”, 1971 Newark: 1.22”, 1971 Three-day rainfall through Friday will likely reach a general 1.00”-2.00” with some locally higher amounts. Highest amounts could exceed 3.00”. 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 82.4° Average temperature: 82.5° Average error: 1.2° Newark: Average daily forecast: 86.9° Average temperature: 86.5° Average error: 1.4° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 84.5° Average temperature: 85.6° Average error: 0.9° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 I think Forkies MCS happens today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 As hot as it was at times in June, the average temp was only between 1 and 2.3 degrees above normal at Bridgeport, Islip, Kennedy, Laguardia and Central Park. Then you have Newark, that was 3.5 degrees above normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, lee59 said: As hot as it was at times in June, the average temp was only between 1 and 2.3 degrees above normal at Bridgeport, Islip, Kennedy, Laguardia and Central Park. Then you have Newark, that was 3.5 degrees above normal. The whole area had a top 6 warmest June. The one exception was JFK with strong sea breezes with the ocean still cooler. Parts of New England like Boston and Portland had their warmest June. Since the 30 year climate normals were updated to incorporate the record warmth of the last 10 years, departures won’t be as relevant a metric. That’s why we need to incorporate the actual temperatures and rankings to get a full picture of the warmth. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.2 0 2 1966 75.4 0 3 1994 75.2 0 4 2010 74.7 0 - 1899 74.7 0 5 1984 74.5 0 6 2021 74.3 0 - 1957 74.3 0 - 1925 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.4 0 2 2010 76.0 0 3 2020 75.9 0 4 2008 75.7 0 5 2021 75.6 0 - 1994 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 71.9 0 - 1999 71.9 0 2 2008 71.6 0 3 1994 71.3 0 4 2001 70.9 0 5 2020 70.7 0 6 2021 70.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2008 72.2 0 2 2010 71.8 0 3 1994 71.7 0 4 1957 71.6 0 5 2021 71.5 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Western Atlantic Ridge slipping east and with it comes 2-3 days of storms and some heavy rains. Clouds about an hour to two away, storms coming in this PM and period of storms and rain next 48 - 72 hours should put up some nice totals. Saturday looks cloudy and much cooler where highs could be stuck in the 60s and in the extreme EWR 103 (Wed) and maybe mid 60s (Sat) a near 40 degree difference. Models still showing an unsettled Sunday morning but overall Fourth of July looks like light / widely scattered shower AM and then some in the evening. The last day of the of fourth of July weekend (Monday) starts a return to warmth and heat / humidity as heights come up. Piece of the western heat which the southwest / rockies heat dome pulses up, pushes east Jul 6 - 9, humidity returns as heights increase with more 90s likely. Tues and Wed look very hot. More widespread pop up storms Tue night (7/6) - Wed (7/7) and Thu (7/8) before we watch remnants or possibly intact Elois. Overall warm to hot pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Our next bout of extreme heat and chances for 100 degree temps to the coast? If it does happen I think it will be after July 20th. The heat post July 4th I've been looking at looks like it wont be at these extreme levels (low 90s perhaps?) and then it looks like we'll have a slight cool down (upper 70s and low 80s) going into the following weekend. Tue/ Wed 850 temps look >18c, pending on when clouds/storms may form could yield some mid to perhaps upper 90s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: As hot as it was at times in June, the average temp was only between 1 and 2.3 degrees above normal at Bridgeport, Islip, Kennedy, Laguardia and Central Park. Then you have Newark, that was 3.5 degrees above normal. PHL: +1.6F ABE: +0.4F ACY: +1.3F ILG: +1.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Newark made it to 103°yesterday for a new all-time June monthly maximum temperature. This was matched by the new Corona, Queens micronet station. Several other stations reached 100° also. So Essex and Queens counties were the warmest around the area in June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of JunClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 101 0 - 1952 101 0 2 2021 100 0 - 2008 100 0 https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona 103 Astoria 100 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 that storm complex is very slow moving-NAM spitting out 2-4 inches for some areas later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 Saturday temps might break some record low max's in the area if some models are correct. July 3rd at KLGA and KJFK is 71. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 34 minutes ago, FPizz said: Saturday temps might break some record low max's in the area if some models are correct. July 3rd at KLGA and KJFK is 71. that will probably come down to whether it's raining or not....some models have an area of rain but the placement varies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 1, 2021 Share Posted July 1, 2021 2 hours ago, FPizz said: PHL: +1.6F ABE: +0.4F ACY: +1.3F ILG: +1.2F Remember that is based off of the 1990-2020 numbers, we no longer use the 1980-2010 records as of this year...I am sure if you ran the departures from 1980-2010 the numbers area wide appear different...the real metric is what @bluewave posted, where the month ranks in actual monthly temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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