WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 We've got a hot one! Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite imagery and nearby buoy and ship observations indicate that a small low pressure system has formed about 500 miles east-southeast of the Georgia-South Carolina border. Surface pressures have begun to fall across the area, and showers and thunderstorms have recently become better organized. Some additional development of this system will be possible later today, and especially on Monday when the system will move across the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, and a tropical depression could form before the system makes landfall along the southern U.S. coast. The low is expected to move westward today, and then west-northwestward at about 15 mph on Monday, reaching the coast of the southeastern United States by late Monday. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 My feeling is that if they’re going to investigate this that it be today rather than tomorrow afternoon, when it would already be nearly onshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2021 Author Share Posted June 27, 2021 This wasn't totally shocking. The guidance, while not explicitly forecasting TC genesis, had been trending stronger with the disturbance. Given the SST profile, and window for lower shear, we're seeing what could be some modest development. Let's see what the convective trends are over the next 12 hours as it approaches a better SST environment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 This wasn't totally shocking. The guidance, while not explicitly forecasting TC genesis, had been trending stronger with the disturbance. Given the SST profile, and window for lower shear, we're seeing what could be some modest development. Let's see what the convective trends are over the next 12 hours as it approaches a better SST environment. Good instability. If the MCS can persist and drive due west, we might have a named TS at landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 Beyond the marginal SSTs right now and few areas of interest, more importantly it's the overall synoptic pattern setting into place that is a bit eye-popping right now. July might have a few early MDR systems, but August may be far more active this year versus previous recent active years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 27, 2021 Share Posted June 27, 2021 I'm shocked But that's a TS tonight on satellite. With out question. Broad circulation but obviously a small compact LLC. Near the flare up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A small low pressure system is located about 425 miles east-southeast of Savannah, Georgia. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized since earlier this afternoon, becoming displaced to the northwest of the surface center due to strong upper-level winds. The low is forecast to move quickly west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream Monday morning, and it has some potential to become a tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina by Monday evening. If the system becomes more organized overnight or on Monday, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Regardless of development, a few inches of rain are possible along the immediate coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through Monday night. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 This looks like at least a TD to me, even though the center is exposed. Up to 70/70 odds of development on the latest TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 It's definitely got some Organizing to do and not a lot of time to do it. We....GA...do NOT need the rain!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Well, it’s clearly organized enough with a well defined LLC. There’s just no big convection near the center. As the NHC said, any organization would bring advisories. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Maybe what I meant is "stacking". Definitely needs some larger convection to fire around that swirl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Pretty swirl, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 13 minutes ago, a5ehren said: Pretty swirl, at least. Looks terribly dry in the swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 The area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past couple of days has developed into a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina this morning. The inner-core cloud structure noted in high-resolution visible satellite imagery has continued to tighten up and deep convection with cloud top temperatures of -60 deg C have persisted northwest through southwest of the center, yielding a Dvorak shear pattern intensity estimate of 30 kt. This intensity estimate is consistent with overnight scatterometer surface wind data of 31-32 kt just north of the well-defined center. The initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The small tropical cyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next couple of days, resulting in landfall along the south-central coast of South Carolina later this evening. The small cyclone is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner, when the system will be located over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The NHC track forecast lies close to the tightly packed GFS- and ECMWF-based Beta-Advection models due to the lack of any significant inner-core convection, which is allowing the cyclone to be steered more by the low-level flow rather than the deep-layer flow as depicted by the global and regional models. There is a narrow window of opportunity this afternoon for the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall occurs. During the next few hours, the small cyclone will be passing over the warmer Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are around 28 deg C. In addition, as the outer wind field begins to interact with land, low-level frictional convergence along and just offshore should help to generate deep convection just prior to landfall, helping to spin up the wind field. The NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm before landfall, and as a result a tropical storm warning has been issued for a portion of the South Carolina coast. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system this afternoon beginning around 1800 UTC, providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is possible from coastal southern South Carolina and Georgia, inland across the Piedmont of Georgia into northeast Alabama. Isolated flooding is possible across urban areas of the southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of the South Carolina coast late this afternoon and tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect portions of the South Carolina coast this afternoon and tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.9N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 32.8N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/1200Z 34.2N 83.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 35.2N 85.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 What a strange looking system. Would love to go watch this thing make landfall this evening though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Rain trying to wrap up thanks to divergence Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Can’t find recon data for the life of me, but TWC suggests that recon is finding TS winds near that convective burst around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Can’t find recon data for the life of me, but TWC suggests that recon is finding TS winds near that convective burst around the center. It is, recon is on cyclonicwxSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Looking like we’ll have a named storm before landfall. Weak and limited impacts but always fun to watch tropical on radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 That convective burst and continued organization has allowed for TD 4 to reach TS strength. Can really see the burst well on radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 Tropical Storm Danny Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042021 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 28 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Doppler radar data from Charleston, South Carolina, along with preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, indicate that the depression has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Danny. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A Weatherflow station at Folly Beach, South Carolina, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). SUMMARY OF 305 PM EDT...1905 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Might head out to Folly in a bit here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Well, I'll be Danny it got a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Webcam on Surfside Beach, SC: https://surfoff.com/webcam/ They have a stiff breeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Per radar and trends, we (SAV) look to get the heaviest rainfall from a couple of bands on the west/SW side of Danny starting shortly and going for a couple of hours on and off. I wouldn't want to be driving then as tropical bands like this are often very heavy. It looks to be coming at a bad time, drive home time. So far, only occasional very light rain has fallen with light winds but is getting dark now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Folly Beach Cam: https://www.surfchex.com/cams/folly-beach-web-cam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 5pm1009mb45mphSent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Pretty tame out there to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 This has definitely been the oddest system in quite some time. Not very often you see a direct landfall and westward trajectory into that area. Usually it's a skirt and skoot along that area of coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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