CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 18Z models seem less supportive of a chase-worthy severe weather threat within my range either tomorrow or Friday afternoon. Sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Going to need Noah's Ark if this keeps up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Here's the 00z HRRR through Friday evening. It has a bit more up into Iowa, but still focused south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 There's gonna be widespread 80 degree dews about the 2nd week of July across much of the region after all this rain and mature corn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 00z NAM continues with a bullseye of at least 15" Gotta say, I have been watching models for 20+ years and I can't remember too many times when a model showed those kind of amounts on that time scale in the Midwest. A hurricane near the coast, sure. And it has been on multiple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 00z 3 km NAM... through 12z Saturday If these excessive amounts occur and find their way to an urban area, look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 RGEM went nuts and drops 6-9" of rain just southwest of the QC tomorrow night alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: RGEM went nuts and drops 6-9" of rain just southwest of the QC tomorrow night alone. Totals through 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 this feels like a spartman thread.a lot of useless maps.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 ^ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: this feels like a spartman thread. a lot of useless maps. . For precise details, sure. But as mentioned earlier, we are seeing a signal for really big amounts on much of the guidance, CAM and non-CAM alike. And I think it's useful to illustrate that as long as every run of every cycle isn't getting posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 47 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: RGEM went nuts and drops 6-9" of rain just southwest of the QC tomorrow night alone. Go ahead and throw out the RGEM. It doesn't even see the MCS blowing up in Nebraska, which will dive into Missouri by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 UKMET placement is pretty far north. Might be a little dangerous to bet on a northernmost outcome imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 These sw flow set ups always sag south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 MCS up north of Stevens Point will miss us to the north/east, one in Iowa will miss to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 @frostfern GRR is going to make you happy with mention of a warm front The sfc front is expected to move southeast of Lower Michigan on Sunday in the wake of the low passage. There is uncertainty on how long it takes to return north as a warm front, but eventually it does and more heavy rain becomes possible later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Hydrologic Outlook ILC017-019-021-023-029-035-039-041-045-057-095-107-113-115-123-125- 129-137-139-143-147-167-169-171-173-175-179-183-203-241700- Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Lincoln IL 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021 ...Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential Tonight through this Weekend... A prolonged periods of showers and thunderstorms tonight through this weekend will likely bring widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible along and north of I-72. Heaviest rainfall rates from thunderstorms could exceed 2 inches per hour. This amount of rainfall could lead to flooding in streams and urban areas as well as in low lying areas prone to flooding. CONFIDENCE STATEMENT: Confidence is medium to high on the storm system impacting the region. Confidence on the exact locations of heaviest rainfall and impacts of flooding across central Illinois remains low at this time. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: If you reside in a flood prone location you should monitor forecasts through this weekend on this developing hazardous weather situation. Now is the time to think about preparedness and plan for impacts in the event the heavy rainfall and flooding materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Slight risk expanded some across southern WI at 13Z, I'm now solidly in the 15/15/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Going to be another I-80 and south show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Going to be another I-80 and south show. counterpoint - riding the 0z euro and joe to big totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 The HRRR continues to predict a huge bust for some areas. One MCS after another blows up in Missouri, which leads to a screw zone to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Rather prolific lightning on this cell coming towards me.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 Incoming line should pour nicely. Gentlemen start your engines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 This is awful. And only the beginning of several days of rain. So bad… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Usually, unless there is a strong system with a LLJ, the outflows sag south and the heavy rains fall south of the models...like the HRRR is showing It is very rare you have the models dumping this much rain around here...I have seen see it in southern IL/KY into the mid south in winter/early spring flooding events near the OH river into TN...and of course tropical systems July 1996 deluge fell during a drought if a recall correctly NE IL is in drought but areas SW near me are not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2021 Author Share Posted June 24, 2021 37 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: This is awful. And only the beginning of several days of rain. So bad… Western Kankakee county getting hit hard now, and it's moving slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 29 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: Usually, unless there is a strong system with a LLJ, the outflows sag south and the heavy rains fall south of the models...like the HRRR is showing It is very rare you have the models dumping this much rain around here...I have seen see it in southern IL/KY into the mid south in winter/early spring flooding events near the OH river into TN...and of course tropical systems July 1996 deluge fell during a drought if a recall correctly NE IL is in drought but areas SW near me are not I agree. Heavy rain events in our region are almost always modeled too far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 looking into next week GFS moves the low out and high pressure builds in CMC, is similar to 00z EURO, and keeps the low over northern plains and keeps high PW water into the midwest over areas hit this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now