WeatherMonger Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 Areas affected...Parts of east central Missouri through central/northeastern Illinois and adjacent northwestern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261645Z - 261845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development likely will continue to increase through 1-3 PM CDT, posing at least some risk for isolated tornadoes and damaging downbursts. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is ongoing along a narrow corridor of destabilization largely driven by daytime heating. This is occurring near a remnant convectively generated surface boundary, along which low-level convergence is focused and maintaining mid 70s F surface dew points, from the Greater St. Louis metro area north-northeastward into the Greater Chicago area. This is also along the southeastern periphery of a lower/mid tropospheric cyclone centered over Iowa, with a remnant MCV also migrating northeast of the Springfield, MO area, toward St. Louis. Lapse rates are generally weak, but the low-level moisture appears to be contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, which could increase to 1500-2000 J/kg with continuing insolation. Furthermore, the axis of destabilization is aligned with a south-southwesterly 850 mb jet migrating across the middle Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes region. Moderate to strong low-level shear will support rotation in developing updrafts, some of which may occasionally strengthen and pose a risk for at least brief tornadoes. Otherwise, consolidating/ upscale growing storm clusters are also possible and may be accompanied by a risk for damaging downbursts. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/26/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutlew Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 ^little late for a watch considering I just got emergency alert on my phone for tornado warning over the city 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Me looking for the tor 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Gee, Chicago Storm didn't have to head too far south to central IL for his tornado chase today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I don't know what it is but today just kinda has the feeling of something happening close by. Low level flow is slightly veered out ahead of current activity, but still have some low level directional shear to play with. Didn't take long for that to verify... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 1202 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021 ILC063-099-105-261730- /O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-210626T1730Z/ LIVINGSTON IL-LA SALLE IL-GRUNDY IL- 1202 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON...EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE AND SOUTHERN GRUNDY COUNTIES... AT 1201 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR DWIGHT, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DWIGHT, GARDNER, MAZON, CORNELL, SOUTH WILMINGTON, RANSOM, VERONA AND KINSMAN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 not recognizing text on copy and paste. Tornado watch issued for central and NE IL, NW IN and Lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Helicity is greater....150 to 250 as storms cross the line into IN, but as has been mentioned...lapse rates are rather meager although this could be compensated for by rich moisture and dews. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Insane amounts of rain here. Nearly 3” alone this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 In addition to my own Calumet region I am also getting really concerned for north central IN because of higher helicity, breaks in the overcast, and discrete cells starting to pop up ahead of the main line. Although cells are moving ne at around 40 mph the line seems to be moving fairly slowly eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 28 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Me looking for the tor Haha. Went up to the 30th floor and took this as it was passing the South Loop 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Very nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 The goods 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 7 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: zzzzz ^^^Premature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 ^^^Premature. has a history of bad warm season calls on the reg.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: has a history of bad warm season calls on the reg. . Just warm season ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Some crazy flooding scenes around Detroit and just to the North.. Some rainfall totals, my area definitely just missed the heavy stuff. Garden City: 6.61" Grosse Pointe: 6.50" SE Ann Arbor: 5.34" Ypsilanti: 4.75" Detroit City: 4.74" Ann Arbor: 4.22" Detroit Metro: 2.38" Wyandotte: 1.62" What's really crazy is that, based on everything I can find, there was virtually no lightning with this activity. It's extremely unusal to see those type of rainfall amounts (outside a Tropical Storm / Hurricane) without lightning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 Been getting some decent gusts out ahead of this activity. The corridor as a whole does not seem to be in a hurry to shift eastward so looks like it will still be a while til anything gets in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 other than some swift cloud motion and entertaining scud, pretty sedate view of the warned area from near old comiskey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sokolow Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 you can just hear the sirens going off to the northwest 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Has begun pouring now in Griffith. Unless this initial line stabilizes the atmosphere I will be concerned about possible recovery and the storms now ne of St. Louis moving up this way because of boundaries this line will set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 On the way back to the IN/IL border and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 TOG allegedly on the Chicago Heights cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 Funnel. Needs a warning. Called it in. Looking west from E. Bemes and S. Klemme Rd. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 208 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 208 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CRETE, OR OVER STEGER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ST. JOHN AROUND 215 PM CDT. SAUK VILLAGE, LYNWOOD AND FORD HEIGHTS AROUND 220 PM CDT. SCHERERVILLE, LANSING AND DYER AROUND 225 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIGHLAND, MUNSTER, MERRILLVILLE, GRIFFITH AND GARY. THIS INCLUDES... ILLIANA MOTOR SPEEDWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, Indystorm said: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE 208 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2021 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT. * AT 208 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CRETE, OR OVER STEGER, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ST. JOHN AROUND 215 PM CDT. SAUK VILLAGE, LYNWOOD AND FORD HEIGHTS AROUND 220 PM CDT. SCHERERVILLE, LANSING AND DYER AROUND 225 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIGHLAND, MUNSTER, MERRILLVILLE, GRIFFITH AND GARY. THIS INCLUDES... ILLIANA MOTOR SPEEDWAY. Looks to be on a similar path to the one in Dyer on Memorial Day 2019. Gonna be a close pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 From my vantage point although it wound up quite nicely there was not a touchdown.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2021 Author Share Posted June 26, 2021 Appeared to weaken as it got into Indiana. More activity behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 26, 2021 Share Posted June 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Powerball said: What's really crazy is that, based on everything I can find, there was virtually no lightning with this activity. It's extremely unusal to see those type of rainfall amounts (outside a Tropical Storm / Hurricane) without lightning. I can attest...no thunder, no lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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