Late June Heavy Rain/Severe Threats

[Hoosier]

Rain shield has been staying to my south so far, but the northern edge is creeping north.

[hawkeye_wx]

There continues to be some scattered cells in my area.  The rain is isolated, but quite heavy.  Fortunately, I am one of the lucky few.  I received 0.67" from a line that popped over me this evening and drifted north of Cedar Rapids.  Then the line stalled and sagged back south and dropped another 1.25" in my yard tonight.  My daily total is 2.05".  Meanwhile, there is a personal station 1.4 miles to my south that has only received 0.08".  In the other direction (ne), Marion has been clobbered.  There are stations going over 5 or even 6" tonight.

[cyclone77]

7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

There continues to be some scattered cells in my area.  The rain is isolated, but quite heavy.  Fortunately, I am one of the lucky few.  I received 0.67" from a line that popped over me this evening and drifted north of Cedar Rapids.  Then the line stalled and sagged back south and dropped another 1.25" in my yard tonight.  My daily total is 2.05".  Meanwhile, there is a personal station 1.4 miles to my south that has only received 0.08".  In the other direction (ne), Marion has been clobbered.  There are stations going over 5 or even 6" tonight.

Nice.  Yeah not sure why DVN hasn't issued a warning for that area, 6" of rain should definitely warrant a FFW IMO.

Looks like a quiet night here, as models mostly suggested.  Storms that were approaching are crapping the bed.  

[Hoosier]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1043 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TORNADO          1 WSW DANFORTH          40.81N 88.00W
06/25/2021                   IROQUOIS           IL   STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER VIDEO SHOWED A MULTI-VORTEX TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN OVER I-57 SOUTHWEST OF DANFORTH AND LIFTED AT SOME POINT NORTH OF THE TOWN. LOCAL EMA CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO SIDING OF A HOME AND A GRAIN SILO SOUTH DANFORTH WITH NO OTHER DAMAGE KNOWN AT THIS TIME. IT IS PRESUMED THE MAJORITY OF THE TORNADO REMAINED OVER OPEN FARM FIELDS. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR, AND LOCATION ESTIMATED BY STORM CHASER VIDEO.


&&

$$

BB

 

[hawkeye_wx]

23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice.  Yeah not sure why DVN hasn't issued a warning for that area, 6" of rain should definitely warrant a FFW IMO.

DVN FINALLY just issued a flash flood warning for Marion.

[Hoosier]

Definitely interested in the severe wx threat for Saturday.  If anything, it looks like a somewhat better tornado threat than this evening.  Could be centered very close by as well.

[Malacka11]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely interested in the severe wx threat for Saturday.  If anything, it looks like a somewhat better tornado threat than this evening.  Could be centered very close by as well.

Any more details? Friend just mentioned this. Roughly what time range?

[CheeselandSkies]

Location of warm front and triple point tomorrow evening would suggest threat for my backyard, but models seem to keep better parameters shunted south roughly along the same latitude where they were today. Will re-evaluate in the morning.

Edit: HRRR seems to have a secondary triple point (possible mesolow?) south of the Quad Cities late tomorrow afternoon which effectively "intercepts" the best parameters south of the main low over northeastern Iowa. Surface winds are a little veered in between the two.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Any more details? Friend just mentioned this. Roughly what time range?

Um, sometime in the afternoon?    I'm reluctant to narrow it down too much.

[Malacka11]

11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Um, sometime in the afternoon?    I'm reluctant to narrow it down too much.

I'll take even that much. Especially if it's local. Just really not a fan getting screwed by sunset.

[Indystorm]

SPC highlights a slight risk northeastward from nw IN for later this Saturday.  Watch the WF and outflow boundaries this afternoon from earlier convection. Multiple tornadoes in north central IN surprised me Friday evening.  Keep watching HRRR throughout the day which also puts north central IL and Chicago metro in the risk zone as well.

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzz

[Chicago WX]

Finally got under some legit rains here last night...2.02" here from the evening/overnight storms. Really, was expecting worse with how the radar looked when I went to bed.  My weather station had a peak hourly rainfall rate of 4.13" at 10:00pm. Ground soaked it up like a sponge though. 3.40" total since this shebang started on Thursday. 

[KokomoWX]

We had some action in adjacent counties...

 

[purduewx80]

The new day 1 sums it up nicely. I could foresee an enhanced/higher probs scenario across the southern Chi metro into far NW IN and SW MI. These festering shows could limit the heating over the rest of the Chicago area, but there is the potential for some last-minute destabilization given the fast flow at 925mb. There is quite a bit of clearing ahead of the main disturbance over SW Missouri now, and the 12Z ILX sounding has a convective temp in the mid-80s. Watching the stalling outflow boundary just west of STL to east of PIA closely.

Quote

...IL-MI...
   Scattered thunderstorms in multiple modes are expected to move
   northeastward across this area from midday through the afternoon,
   offering damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and isolated severe hail.

   Enhanced low/middle-level flow is expected east and southeast of the
   midlevel MCVs/troughs, contributing to effective-shear magnitudes
   potentially reaching the 35-45-kt range, in support of organized
   multicells and a few supercells.  A 40-50-kt LLJ and backed surface
   flow along boundaries will enlarge hodographs, yielding pockets of
   effective SRH in the 250-350 J/kg range.  As such, any supercells or
   suitably oriented QLCS segments interacting with the boundaries may
   pose a locally magnified tornado threat.  Mid/upper-level lapse
   rates will be modest, but a combination of diurnal heating near the
   boundaries, rich low-level moisture (e.g., surface dew points upper
   60s to mid 70s F), minimal MLCINH, and boundary lift should ensure
   considerable convective development with access to an adjoining
   warm-sector corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.  Given the largely
   boundary-parallel flow aloft, training bands/clusters and
   messy/high-precipitation modes are likely to evolve over time.

 

[Chicago Storm]

The new day 1 sums it up nicely. I could foresee an enhanced/higher probs scenario across the southern Chi metro into far NW IN and SW MI. These festering shows could limit the heating over the rest of the Chicago area, but there is the potential for some last-minute destabilization given the fast flow at 925mb. There is quite a bit of clearing ahead of the main disturbance over SW Missouri now, and the 12Z ILX sounding has a convective temp in the mid-80s. Watching the stalling outflow boundary just west of STL to east of PIA closely.

...IL-MI...  Scattered thunderstorms in multiple modes are expected to move  northeastward across this area from midday through the afternoon,  offering damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and isolated severe hail.  Enhanced low/middle-level flow is expected east and southeast of the  midlevel MCVs/troughs, contributing to effective-shear magnitudes  potentially reaching the 35-45-kt range, in support of organized  multicells and a few supercells.  A 40-50-kt LLJ and backed surface  flow along boundaries will enlarge hodographs, yielding pockets of  effective SRH in the 250-350 J/kg range.  As such, any supercells or  suitably oriented QLCS segments interacting with the boundaries may  pose a locally magnified tornado threat.  Mid/upper-level lapse  rates will be modest, but a combination of diurnal heating near the  boundaries, rich low-level moisture (e.g., surface dew points upper  60s to mid 70s F), minimal MLCINH, and boundary lift should ensure  considerable convective development with access to an adjoining  warm-sector corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE.  Given the largely  boundary-parallel flow aloft, training bands/clusters and  messy/high-precipitation modes are likely to evolve over time.

 

Can pull that corridor back down into C IL as it looks.


.

[purduewx80]

42 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

 Can pull that corridor back down into C IL as it looks.

Yeah looks like it’ll go quick. 

[Indystorm]

That bit of clearing in central IL does concern me as it adds to instability but it probably won't last too long.  Partly sunny here.

[CheeselandSkies]

Looks like no hope for clearing around here.

[ILSNOW]

Getting pounded last 1/2 hour here in buffalo grove and have the neighbors kids swimming in a newly created lake in my backyard 

[Chicago Storm]

Going to head down into C Illinois here shortly.

Some of the activity in NE Illinois is rotating a bit, which is a good sign for further south.


.

[michsnowfreak]

Some crazy flooding scenes around Detroit and just to the North.. Some rainfall totals, my area definitely just missed the heavy stuff.

Garden City: 6.61"

Grosse Pointe: 6.50"

SE Ann Arbor: 5.34"

Ypsilanti: 4.75"

Detroit City: 4.74"

Ann Arbor: 4.22"

Detroit Metro: 2.38"

Wyandotte: 1.62"

[WeatherMonger]

SPC extended the light risk SW into east central MO, 5% tornado didn't change.

 

 

 

 

 

...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
   from east-central Missouri to parts of Lower Michigan, and over
   parts of the southern High Plains.  Damaging winds and perhaps hail
   are possible in those areas, along with a tornado or two over the
   Illinois-Michigan corridor.

   ...MO to MI...
   A convectively aided baroclinic zone is shown on recent surface
   analysis from south-central MO into central IL - then northeastward
   into lower MI. Relatively strong heating is occurring along this
   boundary, and ample moisture is present to the south.  This will aid
   in moderate MLCAPE values and the development of scattered
   thunderstorms along this entire corridor later today.  Low and
   mid-level wind fields are southwesterly and relatively
   uni-directional, but are strong enough to pose a risk of some
   convective organization.  Bowing structures as well as occasional
   supercell storms are expected.  Damaging winds appear to be the main
   threat, but sufficient shear will be present to pose some risk of a
   tornado or two as well.  The severe threat should diminish by
   mid-evening as nocturnal cooling ensues.

[A-L-E-K]

Thunderless but getting a real soak

[WeatherMonger]

Tornado Warning just south of Reading IL

[Indystorm]

Tor warnings already popping for Livingston and Will Counties.

[vortex]

Not mine but from Danforth last night. 

[Indystorm]

Current Wilmington warned tor cell is out in front of the line moving northeast.

[purduewx80]

Quality flash flooding disco from WPC.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Current Wilmington warned tor cell is out in front of the line moving northeast.

I don't know what it is but today just kinda has the feeling of something happening close by.  

Low level flow is slightly veered out ahead of current activity, but still have some low level directional shear to play with.