schoeppeya Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Signals for upcoming rounds seem to favor somewhere in central/southern LOT, so possible I could be well over 6" in the next day or two! First time for everything! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 I might really be jumping the gun on this one, but I think we're gonna go chase in northern Indiana, see if we can find anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I might really be jumping the gun on this one, but I think we're gonna go chase in northern Indiana, see if we can find anything You should definitely have enough time to get there, it's still raining and the lull hasn't started yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: You should definitely have enough time to get there, it's still raining and the lull hasn't started yet I just hope that there's actually enough going on for a Nader or two to spawn, I mean models look okay and the spc is nifty but I don't think the word "tornado" was mentioned once in the northern IN forecast discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 I might really be jumping the gun on this one, but I think we're gonna go chase in northern Indiana, see if we can find anything The first part of this statement says it all.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 this ended up a total dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The first part of this statement says it all. . Look, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, even if the shot is the equivalent of half courting it. Besides, I have nothing better to do today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Look, you miss 100% of the shots you don't take, even if the shot is the equivalent of half courting it. Besides, I have nothing better to do today If you’re gonna go anywhere, C IL would make more sense.That was my original plan, but it’s just a bit too marginal/conditional for the 3 hour drive (Or more).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 this ended up a total dudthought you were in best climo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: If you’re gonna go anywhere, C IL would make more sense. That was my original plan, but it’s just a bit too marginal/conditional for the 3 hour drive (Or more). . Really? For isolated supercell type stuff? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: If you’re gonna go anywhere, C IL would make more sense. That was my original plan, but it’s just a bit too marginal/conditional for the 3 hour drive (Or more). . I'd have about a 3.5-4 hour drive just to get to the edge of the 2%. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Really? For isolated supercell type stuff?C IL has been recovering fairly well in the wake of early day rain, storms and cloud debris. Meanwhile, IN has been stocked in with scattered showers and cloud debris much of the day.Obviously IN could still very well go later (And probably will in some fashion), but on paper to me the C IL potential is greater given the recovery.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 I'd have about a 3.5-4 hour drive just to get to the edge of the 2%. No thanks.I wouldn’t do it at that distance either...Too conditional and marginal.It’s a high risk - moderate reward setup.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Plenty of evidence for Chicagoland to get in on things tomorrow. AM convection should lay out the effective warm front. Shear looks decent on a lot of guidance, especially ahead of a weak surface low that tracks towards the area from the southwest during peak heating. Winds could locally back under fast, ~unidirectional flow aloft. That flow may also be parallel to some of the boundaries around which enhances the heavy rain potential. Gonna take a good amount of sun with temps well into the 80s to get decent convection, given the poor mid level lapse rates. If all that happens, a wet microburst setup and isol tornado threat is there. Perhaps some supercells mixed in initially given the 50KT of bulk shear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: C IL has been recovering fairly well in the wake of early day rain, storms and cloud debris. Meanwhile, IN has been stocked in with scattered showers and cloud debris much of the day. Obviously IN could still very well go later (And probably will in some fashion), but on paper to me the C IL potential is greater given the recovery. . What town would you suggest we head to for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Plenty of evidence for Chicagoland to get in on things tomorrow. AM convection should lay out the effective warm front. Shear looks decent on a lot of guidance, especially ahead of a weak surface low that tracks towards the area from the southwest during peak heating. Winds could locally back under fast, ~unidirectional flow aloft. That flow may also be parallel to some of the boundaries around which enhances the heavy rain potential. Gonna take a good amount of sun with temps well into the 80s to get decent convection, given the poor mid level lapse rates. If all that happens, a wet microburst setup and isol tornado threat is there. Perhaps some supercells mixed in initially given the 50KT of bulk shear. Indeed...It’s another day I’ve been watching. Have discussed it a bit with others off the board, as it definitely has some potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 What town would you suggest we head to for now?The I-72 corridor area is roughly the area to watch for now.Like I said though, it’s still a conditional kind of setup.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 ILX thoughts .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Surface analysis this afternoon depicts a stationary front stretched from northern IL into IA well north of the area. An outflow boundary is positioned across southeast IL into central MO with convection ongoing in our far southeast IL counties as well as new activity firing over central MO as of 3 PM. Elsewhere, a break from the precipitation is occurring with some breaks in the clouds noted across west-central portions of the state. SPC mesoanalysis depicts MLCAPE starting to build northward with clearing, though we remain capped (50-150 J/kg) from about I-70 northward from earlier convection. This will prevent anything from developing in these areas for the next few hours. Confidence in the evolution of activity going into tonight remains low. Once the CAP erodes, scattered storms should develop across west-central IL along the ouflow boundary sometime later this afternoon or early evening, which the 25.18Z HRRR picks up on. However, CAMs have not been performing well. The idea is that coverage will increase by tonight as a few mid-level waves ripple through the southwest flow aloft and the LLJ kicks in. Strong to severe storms remain possible across locations south of I-74 with damaging winds and large hail being the main threats. However, decent low- level shear with a boundary in the area could support a brief tornado or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: The I-72 corridor area is roughly the area to watch for now. Like I said though, it’s still a conditional kind of setup. . Going to Bloomington for now ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Malacka11 said: Really? For isolated supercell type stuff? I mean...weren't you going to do the same thing (drive for isolated supercell-type stuff) in Northern Indiana? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Areas affected...central Missouri to central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 252146Z - 252245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch appears warranted to account for expected upscale convective growth over the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Despite earlier MCS that spread across the Midwest, rapid air mass destabilization is occurring just southwest of the STL area. Further destabilization is expected downstream across central IL over the next few hours which should contribute to robust convection. Latest satellite imagery exhibits a line of deepening cumulus, with some showers, from near SPI to north of CMI. Thunderstorms will likely evolve along this corridor soon. Additionally, larger cluster of strong/severe storms should propagate across central into eastern MO with a threat for hail/wind. WW will likely be issued soon. ..Darrow/Grams.. 06/25/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39549270 40748829 39388781 38439003 38169268 39549270 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Going to Bloomington for now tyHopefully you’re racing down there, as there are several mini supercells currently along the I-72 corridor from SPI to CMI.Some are exhibiting weak/broad couplets as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Illinois Central and northeast Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters should develop and spread east-northeast from central Missouri through central Illinois this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Tornado warning north of Decatur IL. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 558 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... West central Piatt County in central Illinois... Southeastern De Witt County in central Illinois... Northeastern Macon County in central Illinois... * Until 630 PM CDT. * At 558 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Argenta, or 11 miles southeast of Clinton, moving northeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Weldon. This includes Interstate 72 between mile markers 153 and 160. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Decent rotation on it past couple frames 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 On the cell by Watseka, seems to be doing all right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 We have clearing here finally, sun is peaking out. IWX is saying storms should fire soon and could be tornadic for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: this ended up a total dud Slightly under 2” of rain this. Going as predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 Missouri doesn't even have much going on, definitely not "robust" This is the image I meant to post on the earlier central IL tornado warned storm. Might have had at least a funnel cloud under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 25, 2021 Share Posted June 25, 2021 0.06" more this morning to bring us up to 0.61" for the day, and 0.65" since last evening. Enough to keep me from watering at least. Some models keep us in sort of a dead zone for the heaviest rains, but all it takes is one good cell to come over and it could easily drop a quick inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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