Hoosier Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Ollie Williams said it best Details/locations tbd but somebody could get slammed with a ton of rain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 i thought there was a drought?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2021 Author Share Posted June 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: i thought there was a drought? . There is until there isn't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2021 Author Share Posted June 23, 2021 NAM has pockets of 10" through 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 All this talk of land tsunamis is great and all, but how do we stand in the severe/chasing department? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Chicago could get hit again this Friday imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 4 hours ago, Malacka11 said: All this talk of land tsunamis is great and all, but how do we stand in the severe/chasing department? Latest NAM is a lot farther south with the favorable parameters (closer in line with GFS) on Friday afternoon. Gonna have to be ready to fly south as soon as I get off work if it looks chaseworthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 From KIND Long Term...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Jun 23 2021 Potential for serious to life threatening heavy rain and flash flooding this weekend into next week as deep moisture advects northward ahead of a warm front over the lower Mississippi Valley and central Plains and a cold front over the northern Plains. The warm front is expected to lift northeast across central Indiana Friday as the cold front approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, a Canadian trough will dig southeast out of central Canada and result in southwest flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. The cold front will become aligned parallel to the upper flow as the front moves to just northwest of central Indiana this weekend. This will likely result in the front stalling out nearby with waves of low pressure moving along it. The persistent synoptic forcing will tap into the deep moisture, seen in precipitable water amounts greater than 2 inches, and instability and result in widespread thunderstorms starting Friday night. The alignment of the front with the upper flow will bring the threat for training and the potential for several inches of rain to fall over a widespread area this weekend into next week. The highest PoPs will start off over the northern Wabash Valley and gradually spread southeast over the weekend into next week. WPC is advertising over half a foot of storm total QPF over the Wabash Valley by next Tuesday with lesser but still impressive amounts over southeastern sections. With persistent warm advection, temperatures still look like they could make it to the lower 80s each day despite the extensive convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 80% chance of rain in my point last night, and wake up to some sunshine and the rain missing to my south. Definitely has not been my season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 miss south stank 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Keeping the drought train running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 miss south stankgonna go 0-2 within the past few days.not your season.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Models seem to be all over the place on where the most conducive environment will be Thursday and Friday afternoons. For quite a few runs central Nebraska looked pretty good (out of range for me unless I took tomorrow/Friday off). Now this morning's 12Z NAM suggests south-central to eastern Iowa (LIES!!!) to north-central and northeast Missouri (yuck!) and even west-central and northwest Illinois. Meanwhile the 3KM NAM highlights more eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri (likewise out of my range). NAM also paints a rather interesting/perhaps even ominous environment across parts of west-central Illinois (Jacksonville/Beardstown/Springfield area, roughly ground zero of the December 2018 outbreak) Friday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Looks like the floodgates are open. Big weekend outdoor plans that are rain or shine for me will not be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: gonna go 0-2 within the past few days. not your season. . i graduated and left champaign in 2006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2021 Author Share Posted June 23, 2021 NAM has a bullseye of like 20". Could be overdone but in this high/persistent pwat regime, you never know. Certainly think this setup is capable of producing double digit rains somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Imagine seeing that post in December 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 2 hours ago, KokomoWX said: Looks like the floodgates are open. Big weekend outdoor plans that are rain or shine for me will not be fun. Another good way to kill Summer with that much rainfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Plenty of rain to come as well for NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Spartman said: Another good way to kill Summer. yes, you are. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 euro looks like a chicagowx special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro looks like a chicagowx special no kidding thru Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 take it to the bank^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: NAM has a bullseye of like 20". Could be overdone but in this high/persistent pwat regime, you never know. Certainly think this setup is capable of producing double digit rains somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 WPC backed off rhe 7"+ area aside from a small blip South of Chicago Edit: Unless this morning's rain in that area was the reasoning for the 7+ totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: euro looks like a chicagowx special 59 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: take it to the bank^ Miss south stank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 yours to lose friend, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2021 Author Share Posted June 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: WPC backed off rhe 7"+ area aside from a small blip South of Chicago Edit: Unless this morning's rain in that area was the reasoning for the 7+ totals. That looks a bit broadbrush. In reality I bet we see area(s) of embedded higher amounts, but the issue is that it's practically impossible to pinpoint that this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 There's an emerging bust forecast from a couple models, at least for Thursday and Thursday night. Unfortunately, it looks very plausible. DVN is talking about this possibility as well. If a big MCS dives down through Missouri Thursday morning, then the Thursday evening MCS may fire up in Missouri again, along the boundary. If that happens, locations to the north will be in a major screw zone. Much of Iowa may need to wait til Friday night when a disturbance rides up through the state. Hopefully, the Missouri convection will die off before then. Here's the WPC forecast through Friday morning. Here's the HRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 23, 2021 Author Share Posted June 23, 2021 It's impressive to see the CAMs and the non-CAMs/globals showing the potential for a swath or two of extreme rain amounts. They are models with different capabilities/parametrizations, and yet both are suggesting the possibility that something pretty high-end could unfold somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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