mahantango#1 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 It was another great lightning show last night. I hope some of you got to experience it. We have had several of those this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Cloudier here now than any point I noticed yesterday. 68 but an uncomfortable 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Cloudier here now than any point I noticed yesterday. 68 but an uncomfortable 68. Sun is out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Sun is out here Its peeking out here but lots of higher level clouds. Would call it mostly cloudy. More clear off to the west. Looks like most of the state is partly or mostly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Obligatory post after looking at the overnight mid to long range models. GFS doesn’t look as trough-y in the D7-10 period as the others and more ridging than troughing on both the 0z and 6z. Mostly garden variety heat and no prolonged heat signal, though the hottest day (7/26) on the 0z GFS is pretty darn hot (94 at PIT and MDT at 18z and triple digits as close as northern Maryland). But if that stuff keeps getting kicked into fantasyland, maybe we can run out the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Obligatory post after looking at the overnight mid to long range models. GFS doesn’t look as trough-y in the D7-10 period as the others and more ridging than troughing on both the 0z and 6z. Mostly garden variety heat and no prolonged heat signal, though the hottest day (7/26) on the 0z GFS is pretty darn hot (94 at PIT and MDT at 18z and triple digits as close as northern Maryland). But if that stuff keeps getting kicked into fantasyland, maybe we can run out the clock. I was just about to post that I was happy, in the MR, to see the CMC get the front hung up near us this weekend and offer the hope of some rain. Bad that its on the weekend of course. GFS was still very dry for parts of PA but moved the focus of it north over the N Central part of the state. Previously mentioned front gives Southern PA rain early next week. That GFS period of heat you mentioned would definitely be a triple digit watch for MDT area. Edit-Euro hangs up the weekend front along S Pa as well so game on for beneficial rains this weekend...until 12Z at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was just about to post that I was happy, in the MR, to see the CMC get the front hung up near us this weekend and offer the hope of some rain. Bad that its on the weekend of course. GFS was still very dry for parts of PA but moved the focus of it north over the N Central part of the state. Previously mentioned front gives Southern PA rain early next week. That GFS period of heat you mentioned would definitely be a triple digit watch for MDT area. Edit-Euro hangs up the weekend front along S Pa as well so game on for beneficial rains this weekend...until 12Z at least. Fingers crossed that you get the best rains out of that one. Those of us that are living in a tropical jungle, however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Fingers crossed that you get the best rains out of that one. Those of us that are living in a tropical jungle, however... LOL, yes I should have said "those of us that need beneficial rains". Although even the rain forest known as Harrisburg will be pretty dry by this weekend if there is no rain before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL, yes I should have said "those of us that need beneficial rains". Although even the rain forest known as Harrisburg will be pretty dry by this weekend if there is no rain before then. And hopefully that infamous Mount Joy rain shadow can be overcome too. I’m learning all kinds of things about the geography and microclimates of the hinterlands of this state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 What a difference a day makes! After not seeing much sun until late morning yesterday, sun has been fully out here since virtually all morning. Just a few wisps of high clouds in the sky here at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Its peeking out here but lots of higher level clouds. Would call it mostly cloudy. More clear off to the west. Looks like most of the state is partly or mostly cloudy. LOL. Just saw this after making my post - I'm definitely in that ribbon of clear that roughly runs up along the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, TimB84 said: And hopefully that infamous Mount Joy rain shadow can be overcome too. I’m learning all kinds of things about the geography and microclimates of the hinterlands of this state. If we get nearby stalled frontal lift and forcing I think a more general "one for all" type rain could commence. Still some storms but as we know the storms only are too finicky sometimes plus heating would be really limited with the front so close/clouds. It was quite the reversal from yesterdays very dry runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: LOL. Just saw this after making my post - I'm definitely in that ribbon of clear that roughly runs up along the river. I thought it interesting the the Susq Valley was the majority of the non cloud covered area this Am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Full Sun here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Full Sun here. What is your call for today? Fair weather ruled the day in the LSV yesterday and you called that. Do we get rain today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: What is your call for today? Fair weather ruled the day in the LSV yesterday and you called that. Do we get rain today? I am thinking no today again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: I am thinking no today again. HRRR focuses south of us but does have some scattered in the LSV. Rap as well since it was brought up yesterday. Rap's LSV line is a little better than the HRRR. I think there is a much better chance for us today but no slam dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: HRRR focuses south of us but does have some scattered in the LSV. Rap as well since it was brought up yesterday. Rap's LSV line is a little better than the HRRR. I think there is a much better chance for us today but no slam dunk. I hope for you for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: I hope for you for sure. Thanks, I will get some eventually (hopefully). As of today, it is not nearly as bad as last year. Feel a bit better with the AM model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Total of .04" yesterday from my one very brief mini afternoon pop-up. As expected, looks like the Williamsport area was the focus of the best action. As some others have stated, pretty wild seeing the lightning light up the sky from 60-80 miles away last night. Never ceases to amaze me how far lightning can reflect through the clouds in the night sky, "heat lightning" as some like to call it, which of course we weather nerds know is not a real thing. Looks like another shot for some severe today, albeit perhaps not quite as widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: What is your call for today? Fair weather ruled the day in the LSV yesterday and you called that. Do we get rain today? 12 minutes ago, paweather said: I am thinking no today again. paweather took me behind the woodshed and gave me a good 'ole fashioned butt whooping yesterday, that's for sure! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: What is your call for today? Fair weather ruled the day in the LSV yesterday and you called that. Do we get rain today? You gotta be careful with those MRGL risk days from the SPC. I say either you get severe thunderstorms everywhere or you don’t see a drop of rain. Nothing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: paweather took me behind the woodshed and gave me a good 'ole fashioned butt whooping yesterday, that's for sure! LOL. Not a chance my friend. I just felt like it was going to happen yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: You gotta be careful with those MRGL risk days from the SPC. I say either you get severe thunderstorms everywhere or you don’t see a drop of rain. Nothing in between. You know, if their maps were never posted here I am not sure I would ever go look. No offense to them but they are in a bad position. They are almost always going to be wrong for some areas when they post large areas of MRGL. I think that probably is in line with your thought. The MRGL tag is like saying "30% chance of". A bit of a CYA. Though the folks in the USV got their fair share of MRGL yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You know, if their maps were never posted here I am not sure I would ever go look. No offense to them but they are in a bad position. They are almost always going to be wrong for some areas when they post large areas of MRGL. I think that probably is in line with your thought. The MRGL tag is like saying "30% chance of". A bit of a CYA. Though the folks in the USV got their fair share of MRGL yesterday. Unfortunately you’re probably right. Depending on the day, it could mean they’re fairly certain storms will develop and could but more likely won’t reach severe levels, or it could mean there’s a solid chance storms don’t develop but if they do, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Total of .04" yesterday from my one very brief mini afternoon pop-up. As expected, looks like the Williamsport area was the focus of the best action. As some others have stated, pretty wild seeing the lightning light up the sky from 60-80 miles away last night. Never ceases to amaze me how far lightning can reflect through the clouds in the night sky, "heat lightning" as some like to call it, which of course we weather nerds know is not a real thing. Looks like another shot for some severe today, albeit perhaps not quite as widespread. I happened to speak to someone yesterday that said it was raining at the Ice Cream Shoe, not too far from you, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Unfortunately you’re probably right. Depending on the day, it could mean they’re fairly certain storms will develop and could but more likely won’t reach severe levels, or it could mean there’s a solid chance storms don’t develop but if they do, look out. I think someone can go into the day with the skills and knowledge like (Hello) Newman or Canderson seem to have, add on the model depictions for guidance, and do fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think someone can go into the day with the skills and knowledge like (Hello) Newman or Canderson seem to have, add on the model depictions for guidance, and do fairly well. I just don’t follow severe the way I did when I was in Wisconsin, so I rarely look at the short range models for severe (unless there’s a rare blockbuster event in PA) and don’t even read the SPC discussions as much as I used to. As you said, at this point if I’m interested in knowing what’s going to happen during a severe event anywhere, I would trust any of the severe weenies on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Well one good piece of news on the comfort front for today is the dew points. Near 80 degrees yesterday afternoon, it looks like they'll be about 10 degrees lower today. Who would think that a 70-degree dew point could feel "comfortable"?...lol. The sun has been in and out of clouds over me this morning. Current temp is 82 and the dew point is 69. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I just don’t follow severe the way I did when I was in Wisconsin, so I rarely look at the short range models for severe (unless there’s a rare blockbuster event in PA) and don’t even read the SPC discussions as much as I used to. As you said, at this point if I’m interested in knowing what’s going to happen during a severe event anywhere, I would trust any of the severe weenies on this forum. I think that if a met degree did not requires ridiculously advanced mathematics, this type of forum proves it would be an oversaturated job market :-). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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