Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wait...you got rain and I didn't? How did this happen? At the risk of making some jealous, I just got jacked by a sun shower. T on the board. That is one step better than S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 90 / 71 at 4 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Johnstown south to just east of Confluence is getting trained right now. That seems to be the eastern most extent of significant convection right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest mesoanalysis has Mid level lapse rates creeping north with 6.5 tickling the m/d line which u don't see often as you said . Not quite enough forcing? Too far east possibly today for the SC pa ,N.Md area. I think the forcing was lacking from the very start. In Florida the daily Meso analysis says it is is prime for thunderstorms every day for months but they do not always take place because of very little forcing in the summer outside of wind direction based ocean breezes acting as the match to light everything else. I am so NOT a severe expert so I will not try to act like one but having a great CAPE is not always enough to squeeze that atmospheric sponge. That front in the mid west is a long way from us. As someone earlier pointed out, there is the possibility of cells after dark as the stuff that forms to our west is going to come by eventually though it looks more MSV/USV based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 95/75 at 6 pm it’s horribad out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: 95/75 at 6 pm it’s horribad out Too obscure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 I think State College should cancel that watch for the LSV…nothing is even happening. It’s a western PA day today for storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Just now, Storm Clouds said: I think State College should cancel that watch for the LSV…nothing is even happening. It’s a western PA day today for storms. Main activity isn’t until sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 In other news, the Mid Atlantic forum has already canceled next Winter in their Winter preview thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, canderson said: Main activity isn’t until sunset. Nws says showers, storms mainly before 3;00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: In other news, the Mid Atlantic forum has already canceled next Winter in their Winter preview thread! The fact that they are doing a winter preview thread in Mid July is evidence enough to place the thread on ignore, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The fact that they are doing a winter preview thread in Mid July is evidence enough to place the thread on ignore, right? Lol…you’re right, but I couldn’t resist taking a look just for entertainment! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 It looks like State College is getting a good storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It looks like State College is getting a good storm now. That line looks vicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 That is a nasty line moving into Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 26 minutes ago, canderson said: That is a nasty line moving into Williamsport. Speaking of Williamsport, I wonder how our good old friend from up there is doing these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 38 minutes ago, canderson said: That is a nasty line moving into Williamsport. Some new tornado warnings up that way in the past few minutes. Montgomery/Pennsdale area I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service State College PA 851 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania... Northwestern Montour County in central Pennsylvania... Southeastern Lycoming County in north central Pennsylvania... * Until 915 PM EDT. * At 850 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Delaware Run, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Muncy around 900 PM EDT. Exchange around 910 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Tornado appears to be on the ground just north of Muncy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 We finally got something worth talking about here in Williamsport. Both yesterday and today there were points where 2-3 inches would be predicted but the amount would go down, down, down. Before the storm came through at last Wunderground had us down for 0.14. We did a little better than that, needless to say. Just a minute ago we got a tornado warning cancelled. That's probably the fifth or sixth notice we've had tonight. Update: Another "strong thunderstorm" coming our way by 9:45pm according to special weather statement, with torrential rain and pea sized hail. Update 2: Another severe thunderstorm warning for us from 9:30-10:30pm. Is this the same one from the special weather statement or a new one? I don't know. It does not mention torrential rain or hail and includes more places. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 I can see lightning flashing high in the clouds from the storms way up north from way down here…damn! Constant flashes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 Watch was cancelled for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Watch was cancelled for the LSV. Until tomorrow’s is issued, you mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 14, 2021 Author Share Posted July 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, canderson said: Until tomorrow’s is issued, you mean Tomorrow is our turn, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Tomorrow is our turn, correct? Someone in this forum, for sure. Haven’t looked tonight at exact parameters for tomorrow if it’ll be LSV or more north. My guess is the entire line might run the length of the state. Shear should be less tomorrow but instability will be pretty high in the LSV. Prob more a straight line wind threat in storms here more so than hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 10:08pm Radar looks about the same for us as far as I can tell. I was out on the porch for at least five minutes watching the sky light up but no lightening bolts. Now while typing this I heard a crash. So will we have a full show? We will see. Very loud thunder now. Wind is not bad though. I hope we don't lose the electricity. By the way. Godfather II has been on. This storm ruined watching it sort of but provided some great music at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Surprise! Not over quite yet for Williamsport. Our radar is clear but we were getting a few lightening bolts spreading across the sky. Now I just heard a bit of thunder, I think. We have a flood advisory, watch and warning. I hope people aren't having big problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 Quite the interesting storm alignment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted July 14, 2021 Share Posted July 14, 2021 6 hours ago, canderson said: Someone in this forum, for sure. Haven’t looked tonight at exact parameters for tomorrow if it’ll be LSV or more north. My guess is the entire line might run the length of the state. Shear should be less tomorrow but instability will be pretty high in the LSV. Prob more a straight line wind threat in storms here more so than hail. 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Tomorrow is our turn, correct? I'll do a quick drive-by forecast here. Took a look at the parameters for tomorrow. Basically, the area I have outlined has the best shot for severe winds and MAYBE hail to quarter size, although that would be for the more robust storms with a sustained updraft. Shear is lacking overall with effective shear only between 20-30kts max. Best shear is located up over New England where the jet streak will still be close by to give a shear ~30-35kts, which is better for sustained updrafts. MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg with mid-level lapse rates around 6-7C will prompt a chance at severe downdrafts in a couple storms. Not a big day, but non-zero! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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