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Central PA - Summer 2021


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24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest mesoanalysis has Mid level lapse rates creeping north with 6.5 tickling the m/d line which u don't see often as you said .  Not quite enough forcing? Too far east possibly today for the SC pa ,N.Md area.

I think the forcing was lacking from the very start.  In Florida the daily Meso analysis says it is is prime for thunderstorms every day for months but they do not always take place because of very little forcing in the summer outside of wind direction based ocean breezes acting as the match to light everything else.   I am so NOT a severe  expert so I will not try to act like one but having a great CAPE is not always enough to squeeze that atmospheric sponge.   That front in the mid west is a long way from us.   As someone earlier pointed out, there is the possibility of cells after dark as the stuff that forms to our west is going to come by eventually though it looks more MSV/USV based. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
851 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Montour County in central Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Lycoming County in north central Pennsylvania...

* Until 915 PM EDT.

* At 850 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Delaware Run, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Muncy around 900 PM EDT.
  Exchange around 910 PM EDT.
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We finally got something worth talking about here in Williamsport.  Both yesterday and today there were points where 2-3 inches would be predicted but the amount would go down, down, down.  Before the storm came through at last Wunderground had us down for 0.14.  

We did a little better than that, needless to say.  

Just a minute ago we got a tornado warning cancelled.  That's probably the fifth or sixth notice we've had tonight.

Update: Another "strong thunderstorm" coming our way by 9:45pm according to special weather statement, with torrential rain and pea sized hail.

Update 2: Another severe thunderstorm warning for us from 9:30-10:30pm.  Is this the same one from the special weather statement or a new one?  I don't know.  It does not mention torrential rain or hail and includes more places.

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Tomorrow is our turn, correct?

Someone in this forum, for sure. Haven’t looked tonight at exact parameters for tomorrow if it’ll be LSV or more north. My guess is the entire line might run the length of the state. 

Shear should be less tomorrow but instability will be pretty high in the LSV.  Prob more a straight line wind threat in storms here more so than hail. 

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10:08pm Radar looks about the same for us as far as I can tell.  I was out on the porch for at least five minutes watching the sky light up but no lightening bolts.  Now while typing this I heard a crash.  So will we have a full show?  We will see.  Very loud thunder now.  Wind is not bad though. I hope we don't lose the electricity.  

By the way. Godfather II has been on.  This storm ruined watching it sort of but provided some great music at times.

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Surprise! Not over quite yet for Williamsport.  Our radar is clear but we were getting a few lightening bolts spreading across the sky.  Now I just heard a bit of thunder, I think.

We have a flood advisory, watch and warning.  I hope people aren't having big problems.

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6 hours ago, canderson said:

Someone in this forum, for sure. Haven’t looked tonight at exact parameters for tomorrow if it’ll be LSV or more north. My guess is the entire line might run the length of the state. 

Shear should be less tomorrow but instability will be pretty high in the LSV.  Prob more a straight line wind threat in storms here more so than hail. 

 

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Tomorrow is our turn, correct?

I'll do a quick drive-by forecast here. Took a look at the parameters for tomorrow. Basically, the area I have outlined has the best shot for severe winds and MAYBE hail to quarter size, although that would be for the more robust storms with a sustained updraft. Shear is lacking overall with effective shear only between 20-30kts max. Best shear is located up over New England where the jet streak will still be close by to give a shear ~30-35kts, which is better for sustained updrafts. MLCAPE around 2000 j/kg with mid-level lapse rates around 6-7C will prompt a chance at severe downdrafts in a couple storms. Not a big day, but non-zero! 

549105978_JulyPAStormPot.thumb.PNG.c9f37c387244a41555d906929cf05607.PNG

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