Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: As of now, there's nothing to suggest on radar that you're wrong. Cells are forming to our NW and moving NE. There's nothing yet to our south that would move up into our area. Here is my current view toward Paw Paw and the Southwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Sun's been out a while here now. But severe looks more toward middle of the region, Williamsport-ish area. The severe is most likely to ramp up as it gets dark, too, as weird as that sounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Bingo. Light NNW wind. I knew I was missing something. Thanks! Add to that, I should know better. The flow has W PA on the eastern edge of that ridge so of course the winds would be out of the north. Damn work getting in the way of hobbies again. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Add to that, I should know better. The flow has W PA on the eastern edge of that ridge so of course the winds would be out of the north. Damn work getting in the way of hobbies again. LOL. The way I look at it...the models are never wrong (Edit-In the way they have been programmed) in coming to their conclusion. The parts they use to come to that conclusion might be wrong in apparent weather but if everything happens the way they depict through the column, winds, etc....they would be right. So if it showed something there is always a reason for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 So for the second time since noon, a fairly small and minor cell has popped just south of Carlisle. Weird microclimate thing going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Granted it’s still early, but cells that pop are very small and don’t last long before falling apart. Maybe things will change as we head towards evening. I mean look what happened late last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Here is my current view toward Paw Paw and the Southwest. That's sunnier than it is here. Clouds here are bigger, taller, and darker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The way I look at it...the models are never wrong (Edit-In the way they have been programmed) in coming to their conclusion. The parts they use to come to that conclusion might be wrong in apparent weather but if everything happens the way they depict through the column, winds, etc....they would be right. So if it showed something there is always a reason for it. And that’s true too. Presumably if two days hypothetically had the exact same atmospheric conditions at the exact same time of the year, they would always be exactly identical RE: observed weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: And that’s true too. Presumably if two days hypothetically had the exact same atmospheric conditions at the exact same time of the year, they would always be exactly identical RE: observed weather. Imagine if the models were better figuring out the variables? There would be no weather boards. (as has been said here before). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Imagine if the models were better figuring out the variables? There would be no weather boards. (as has been said here before). Hypothetically there could and probably will come a day when this hobby is ruined by technology and, well, science. I’m glad I’ll be dead long before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Severe t-storm watch issue for this entire region* through 11 p.m. * it's basically the PA/MD border from roughly Pittsburgh to Lancaster to Scranton and all the up north to the Canadian border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 #fringed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Bulk shear values are actually pretty impressive compared to previous days across PA. I picked the Harrisburg area as a pinpoint for SPC tornado climatology, the red bars represent current values. I'm not expecting any tors per-say, but low LCLs, high bulk shear, high supercell composite values, high CAPE, high STP values means it's certainly not out of the question. Problem always seems to be mid-level lapse rates around here, they are on the meager side if you're looking for something to nitpick and enjoy severe weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Newman said: Bulk shear values are actually pretty impressive compared to previous days across PA. I picked the Harrisburg area as a pinpoint for SPC tornado climatology, the red bars represent current values. I'm not expecting any tors per-say, but low LCLs, high bulk shear, high supercell composite values, high CAPE, high STP values means it's certainly not out of the question. Problem always seems to be mid-level lapse rates around here, they are on the meager side if you're looking for something to nitpick and enjoy severe weather. Lapse rates get quite a bit better around 80, right? Last I looked at least that was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Ugggghhh! My dew point just hit 79 degrees! That's about as high as it can ever get around here. "Luckily" my temp is only 87 degrees with humidity at 76% so the heat index is only 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Getting a little but more active over here now. Fair weather clouds replaced with a few gray cumulus clouds that I bet have some sprinkles under them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, canderson said: Lapse rates get quite a bit better around 80, right? Last I looked at least that was forecast. Looks like Low level lapse rates will slowly improve through the day as the residual cloud cover from the east continues to burn off. That's almost a given, the surface heating will almost always bump LLLRs to >7C/km range. MLLRs are forecast by the RAP to improve throughout the day as well, into the evening. In fact, the SCP is expected to increase from the already high value its at right now, likely aided by the increased lapse rates. Same with helicity values.... basically what I'm getting at is things are conducive for tornados later. Whether or not we can get any is of course the big question. With the cold front approaching from the west, only into the Indiana region, I think western areas will see the greatest area/influence of enhanced frontal lifting so hence why much of the CAMs keep convection further to the west. We'll see though, I'll be keeping an eye out. It's been active here in Lanco recently, that's for sure 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Getting a little but more active over here now. Fair weather clouds replaced with a few gray cumulus clouds that I bet have some sprinkles under them A few stray cells have popped in the MD/WV panhandle now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 We are still solid overcast and even fog on the top of the Blue Mountain on 309. We need to clear, and fast, for anything significant to happen later, but I'm not feeling it for areas east of 81 and south of 80 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 hour ago, TimB84 said: Bingo. Light NNW wind. I knew I was missing something. Thanks! Ha I do the same thing all the time, see the heights and no precip and wonder why temps don't align and then it hits me, aaaaahhhhhh surface winds, and sure enough...... 1 hour ago, canderson said: Sun's been out a while here now. But severe looks more toward middle of the region, Williamsport-ish area. The severe is most likely to ramp up as it gets dark, too, as weird as that sounds. Models have been keying on that, similar to last night, don't let your guard down when the sun goes down, particularly those up around the Lycoming Valley...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Ha I do the same thing all the time, see the heights and no precip and wonder why temps don't align and then it hits me, aaaaahhhhhh surface winds, and sure enough...... But the map in question was this, so yeah, major brain fart. Some things just scream northerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: But the map in question was this, so yeah, major brain fart. Oh yeah I gotchya.....sometimes I'm zoomed it too far to get the big picture as well, first day stuff haha..... 38 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Ugggghhh! My dew point just hit 79 degrees! That's about as high as it can ever get around here. "Luckily" my temp is only 87 degrees with humidity at 76% so the heat index is only 101. Tell me about it brotha, I have a dew of 80 to go along with a temp of 90 for a heat index of 108! Think my dew may have spiked a touch from a mini pop-up cell that rolled over me earlier and dropped a few hundredths of an inch, just gnarly outside..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Oh yeah I gotchya.....sometimes I'm zoomed it too far to get the big picture as well, first day stuff haha..... Tell me about it brotha, I have a dew of 80 to go along with a temp of 90 for a heat index of 108! Think my dew may have spiked a touch from a mini pop-up cell that rolled over me earlier and dropped a few hundredths of an inch, just gnarly outside..... Wait...you got rain and I didn't? How did this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Voyager said: We are still solid overcast and even fog on the top of the Blue Mountain on 309. We need to clear, and fast, for anything significant to happen later, but I'm not feeling it for areas east of 81 and south of 80 right now. This is what it's like here right now at 3:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 The sun makes it feel like 1,000 degrees out. It's one of the worst days of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: This is what it's like here right now at 3:30pm. Jeez that’s crazy…completely different story down here in York! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: Jeez that’s crazy…completely different story down here in York! That is some mighty green grass! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Fair Weather Clouds are there right now for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wait...you got rain and I didn't? How did this happen? haha I know it caught me off guard as well, seemed to dissipate as quickly as it formed.......Farmdale jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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