Central PA - Summer 2021

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I actually have read a study on that (can't recall by whom or when) and indeed there is evidence that cities receive more prcip from convective elements than their surrounding locations, for precisely the reason you stated.  The difference was not huge, perhaps something on the order of 5-10% more, but it was statistically significant.  So your instincts were correct!

 

This does not include yesterday but seems they are doing well....

 

That is a wet looking PA map as a whole.   As we stated a few days ago, it can be very misleading both up or down.  MDT has received about 3" more than the Dauphin county number shows. 

[TimB]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is a wet looking PA map as a whole.   As we stated a few days ago, it can be very misleading both up or down.  MDT has received about 3" more than the Dauphin county number shows. 

But isn’t Pillow the unofficial official site for Dauphin County now?

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

But isn’t Pillow the unofficial official site for Dauphin County now?

@Itstrainingtime seemed a bit peeved at his being represented by MDT yesterday so I think some discussion has been ongoing to find a more neutral site.  Pillow was up for it but I think everyone was going to sleep on it.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

As the hot'n'muggies roll on, Mount Joy Snowman (yes I reserve the right to occasionally refer to myself in third person) has some random tidbits.  For one, all is right with the world when the national high/low temps are dominated by Death Valley and Peter Sinks, as has been the case for much of the last couple weeks.  By the way, 127 in Death Valley yesterday, yahtzee!  Moving on to more local goodies.......

LNS got 2" yesterday, nice.  However, the big winner was Philly's Northeast Airport (KPNE), which recorded the top hourly rainfall total in its history (records back to 1948) yesterday, with 2.42" falling between the hours of 5 and 6pm, culminating with a daily total of 4.16".  Another fun fact, which I am full of today, is that Selinsgrove was the only ASOS station to not record any rainfall yesterday.

Poe Valley State Park got hit with a potent little microburst on Sunday, which you may read about here: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=CTP

Here are my thoughts for today's severe potential.  Note, these are totally NOT the thoughts of CTP as taken from their forecast discussion page.....carry on chaps.....

Heating of moist, unstable air mass should lead to scattered
convection by early this afternoon, focused primarily along the
elevated heat source along the spine of the Appalachians.
However, increasing large scale forcing ahead of a shortwave
approaching from the Ohio Valley should lead to increasing
coverage late in the day and into the evening hours. Latest HREF
supports the highest POPs in vicinity of a weak warm front over
the Middle Susq Valley, where pwats around 2 inches are
progged. The high-pwat air, combined with moderate to high
instability, should result in locally heavy downpours and the
potential of localized flooding. The wettest members of the 00Z
HREF indicate the potential of 2-3 inches in a few spots of the
central mountains and Middle Susq Valley.

Increasing winds aloft ahead of approaching shortwave will lead
to respectable deep layer shear late in the day and evening,
supporting a few supercells and even the chance of a tornado,
where low level shear is enhanced near warm front over the Susq
Valley. The highest HREF UH and greatest mesocyclone potential
lie across the Middle Susq Valley.

[TimB]

19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I actually have read a study on that (can't recall by whom or when) and indeed there is evidence that cities receive more prcip from convective elements than their surrounding locations, for precisely the reason you stated.  The difference was not huge, perhaps something on the order of 5-10% more, but it was statistically significant.  So your instincts were correct!

 

This does not include yesterday but seems they are doing well....

 

19 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I actually have read a study on that (can't recall by whom or when) and indeed there is evidence that cities receive more prcip from convective elements than their surrounding locations, for precisely the reason you stated.  The difference was not huge, perhaps something on the order of 5-10% more, but it was statistically significant.  So your instincts were correct!

I wouldn’t have expected it to be a massive difference, just on those days when it’s marginal for convective temps to be breached, so statistically significant is good enough for me. I wouldn’t be shocked if it had an even smaller, but still there, effect on precip totals downstream (in areas generally slightly E/NE of cities) if storms are able to form in the slightly warmer environment of cities and then move out of those areas.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Here are my thoughts for today's severe potential.  Note, these are totally NOT the thoughts of CTP as taken from their forecast discussion page.....carry on chaps.....

I often wondered if one typed in that size and font would readers just take it as gospel.   The HRRR is not at all feeling good about LSV rains today. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

LNS got 2" yesterday, nice.  However, the big winner was Philly's Northeast Airport (KPNE), which recorded the top hourly rainfall total in its history (records back to 1948) yesterday, with 2.42" falling between the hours of 5 and 6pm, culminating with a daily total of 4.16".  Another fun fact, which I am full of today, is that Selinsgrove was the only ASOS station to not record any rainfall yesterday.

I understand the fine people of Smethport refer to such events as a light sprinkle.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Aaaahhhh okay now that I view it on google's street view I do recall that place.  Where we turn off for my buddy's cabin is a couple miles past there in Watrous, head down Elk Run Road through the Marshlands and deep into the hinterlands from there.

I know it well.  Always used to like to climb suicide hill pipeline w/ the snowmobiles.  We sled over that way a lot as Marshlands/Ridge/cedar mtn/thompson hollow are all big connecting roads to other areas.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Yinzerland stands in solidarity with you on this one. Best overnight storm in recent memory out here.

we (like many), got ROCKED last night.  Vivid ass lighning show and i think all 4 corners of the house were hit .

that was one to remember.  Almost put a pillow over my head for protection....hehe

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Itstrainingtime seemed a bit peeved at his being represented by MDT yesterday so I think some discussion has been ongoing to find a more neutral site.  Pillow was up for it but I think everyone was going to sleep on it.  

Ha! No, not peeved by being represented by MDT, my point was that I represent myself. What happens at MDT is meaningless to me because I don't live there. As we know painfully well, you only need to go a very short distance to experience a wide variety of weather. I don't care what MDT gets because it's not reflective of my house. My home weather station takes care of that for me.   

[pasnownut]

36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just scanned the GFS and that ridge really is displaced East.  A bit surprised we are so dry but that is not the look of heat like you said.  An average looking depiction temp wise.  With that said, I have a bit less confidence in the MR and LR of the GFS right now.  Really flopping more, IMO, than the last couple months of solid work it has done. 

if that ridge gets far enough East, we'd be in better shape w/ boundary being close enough to have influence.  Bring it west....we bake.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ha! No, not peeved by being represented by MDT, my point was that I represent myself. What happens at MDT is meaningless to me because I don't live there. As we know painfully well, you only need to go a very short distance to experience a wide variety of weather. I don't care what MDT gets because it's not reflective of my house. My home weather station takes care of that for me.   

LOL, I figured and understood.  Having some fun.  But 10 years from now MDT will be what stands for all of us when others look from afar. My only closer location is HGR but it is not looked at as being as official as MDT for some reason.  No full time Met's in place I guess.  

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if that ridge gets far enough East, we'd be in better shape w/ boundary being close enough to have influence.  Bring it west....we bake.

Yes, West is bad for those that want normal temps.  So far July has been almost exactly normal at MDT. 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, West is bad for those that want normal temps.  So far July has been almost exactly normal at MDT. 

parsing over 6z beyond mid range, it loses the SER and verbatim would shut down the sticky heat pump.  

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

parsing over 6z beyond mid range, it loses the SER and verbatim would shut down the sticky heat pump.  

Yea, that is what it was looking like.    Really leads to decent summer temps albeit dry.  All 3 of GFS, CMC and Euro were not wanting to spit out much qpf though Euro was at least close to normal. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

LOL, I figured and understood.  Having some fun.  But 10 years from now MDT will be what stands for all of us when others look from afar. My only closer location is HGR but it is not looked at as being as official as MDT for some reason.  No full time Met's in place I guess.  

Yeah...I understand that. It just doesn't make me feel any better when MDT records 17" of snow while I got 9" followed by rain. I'll never look back on that event as a 17" of snow when that's not what happened at my locale. 

Granted, that's an extreme example for snow perhaps but just a few days ago, MDT received over 2" of rain on the same day that I got .27". 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah...I understand that. It just doesn't make me feel any better when MDT records 17" of snow while I got 9" followed by rain. I'll never look back on that event as a 17" of snow when that's not what happened at my locale. 

Granted, that's an extreme example for snow perhaps but just a few days ago, MDT received over 2" of rain on the same day that I got .27". 

But does it bother you when MDT records 2” of snow and you get 6”?

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah...I understand that. It just doesn't make me feel any better when MDT records 17" of snow while I got 9" followed by rain. I'll never look back on that event as a 17" of snow when that's not what happened at my locale. 

Granted, that's an extreme example for snow perhaps but just a few days ago, MDT received over 2" of rain on the same day that I got .27". 

I totally agree with your assertion.  You keep good records and for your own knowledge, yours trump MDT and the HIA. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

31 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

 

I wouldn’t have expected it to be a massive difference, just on those days when it’s marginal for convective temps to be breached, so statistically significant is good enough for me. I wouldn’t be shocked if it had an even smaller, but still there, effect on precip totals downstream (in areas generally slightly E/NE of cities) if storms are able to form in the slightly warmer environment of cities and then move out of those areas.

Yes, I believe the study concluded that as well, minor but provable downstream effects.  Your intuition is on point yinzer.

 

32 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I often wondered if one typed in that size and font would readers just take it as gospel.   The HRRR is not at all feeling good about LSV rains today. 

You aren't kidding, hard to find a lot of support for the LSV for today.  It may by a @mahantango#1 special, or even more likely according to some of the Mesos is a Williamsport jackpot.

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

But does it bother you when MDT records 2” of snow and you get 6”?

Not at all. I received 6", 6" in going in my records. And I'm out enjoying that amount. 

What bothers me somewhat is when people that I've gotten to "know" on here get hosed while I score big. I know how it feels to be on the outside looking in...it's tough. Snow is thing, you know. But what happens on a concrete tarmac? Couldn't care less. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I totally agree with your assertion.  You keep good records and for your own knowledge, yours trump MDT and the HIA. 

Exactly! 

You said that in a much more succinct way than I did.  

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes, I believe the study concluded that as well, minor but provable downstream effects.  Your intuition is on point yinzer.

 

You aren't kidding, hard to find a lot of support for the LSV for today.  It may by a @mahantango#1 special, or even more likely according to some of the Mesos is a Williamsport jackpot.

That’s one of the things I love about weather. The underlying principles can be so simple and intuitive, but the actual results on the ground can be so chaotic and unpredictable.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

That’s one of the things I love about weather. The underlying principles can be so simple and intuitive, but the actual results on the ground can be so chaotic and unpredictable.

That...is so true. See this all time in the winter as well. 

[Itstrainingtime]

I opened this thread 24 days ago...a summer thread that is now 71 pages long. 

Last year's summer thread went through early September and reached 76 pages. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I opened this thread 24 days ago...a summer thread that is now 71 pages long. 

Last year's summer thread went through early September and reached 76 pages. 

And the previous Summer was a combo Spring/Summer thread with only 40 pages. 

And with apologies to @CarlislePaWx, we have not even spoken much about the Australia win over the USA after Canderson brought it up.  After looking at the Aussie roster, they have a lot of NBA talent so not really that big of an upset.  Australia is missing Ben Simmons though.  If Ben had played the US may have had a better shot with Hack-a-Ben tactics.

[canderson]

Still believe there will be much more severe weather and possibly a few tornados today than we've had yet. Conditions are ripe in a huge swath of this region, especially going north of HBG and up toward Wilkes Barre. 

[sauss06]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Still believe there will be much more severe weather and possibly a few tornados today than we've had yet. Conditions are ripe in a huge swath of this region, especially going north of HBG and up toward Wilkes Barre. 

Its not heating up so fast today, no sun. 

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And the previous Summer was a combo Spring/Summer thread with only 40 pages. 

And with apologies to @CarlislePaWx, we have not even spoken much about the Australia win over the USA after Canderson brought it up.  After looking at the Aussie roster, they have a lot of NBA talent so not really that big of an upset.  Australia is missing Ben Simmons though.  If Ben had played the US may have had a better shot with Hack-a-Ben tactics.

You just had to go there...

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

You just had to go there...

I am trying to soften the market for him so the Mav's can swing a deal and bring him to big D. 

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, canderson said:

Still believe there will be much more severe weather and possibly a few tornados today than we've had yet. Conditions are ripe in a huge swath of this region, especially going north of HBG and up toward Wilkes Barre. 

 

7 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Its not heating up so fast today, no sun. 

Not wishing severe on anyone. Hope that doesn't materialize.