Central PA - Summer 2021

[Blizzard of 93]

Beautiful morning with a breeze and no humidity.

A splendid mid Summer day is underway!

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

No complaints here. Of course there will be some heat at some point, but I really feel if PIT never sees 95 (or MDT never sees 100), we dodged a bullet the way this summer is going elsewhere in the nation.

And living in the present and not fantasy land, my DP is in the 50s and will likely remain there all day. Official low at the airport was 54 and weather stations near me went to ~52-53. Good shot at my 6th day this month with a high in the 70s after seeing none last July. Life is good.

A normal July instead of a frying pan.  What a concept! :-).  MDT stands at a negligible +.3 for the month 1/3 through. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes. For many years my weather investment was $11 - consisted of a garden rain gauge and a window thermometer. Over time, I upgraded each of those until I decided to splurge on my own station. So worth it! At the same time, as nice as it is...it's still a luxury that I feel fortunate to own but let's face it...even for a weenie like myself, it's still far from a necessity in life. 

Well said. I would add that I much prefer a good old fashioned hand gauge to any type of automated measuring system. To me there is nothing better than a properly sited official cylinder gauge, checked every morning, for accurately measuring precipitation. But maybe that’s just me. By the way, .46” for my official tally yesterday. 

[CarlislePaWx]

28 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Well said. I would add that I much prefer a good old fashioned hand gauge to any type of automated measuring system. To me there is nothing better than a properly sited official cylinder gauge, checked every morning, for accurately measuring precipitation. But maybe that’s just me. By the way, .46” for my official tally yesterday. 

I've got both types!  I've got my weather station tipping bucket to have an error rate of less than 3%.  On Thursday my Clear-Vue gauge measured 1.31" while my tipping bucket measured 1.34".

As for yesterday's precip I received only a trace so the see-saw continues.  Month-to-date I have 2.07".  It was already feeling great by 11pm last night when my temp was 74 and dew point had dropped to 63 with a nice breeze.  After spending most of the day with dew points in the low to mid 70's a drop to the mid 60's felt wonderful.  Right now my dp is 62.  Low this morning was 62.2.

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP has slashed my rain chances for tomorrow from 70% down to 30%. We just might salvage a dry weekend.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I've got both types!  I've got my weather station tipping bucket to have an error rate of less than 3%.  On Thursday my Clear-Vue gauge measured 1.31" while my tipping bucket measured 1.34".

As for yesterday's precip I received only a trace so the see-saw continues.  Month-to-date I have 2.07".  It was already feeling great by 11pm last night when my temp was 74 and dew point had dropped to 63 with a nice breeze.  After spending most of the day with dew points in the low to mid 70's a drop to the mid 60's felt wonderful.  Right now my dp is 62.  Low this morning was 62.2.

Last night was beautiful indeed. My wife and I spent time relaxing on our Adirondacks and watched the stars. Great summer evening!

[Jns2183]

I've got both types!  I've got my weather station tipping bucket to have an error rate of less than 3%.  On Thursday my Clear-Vue gauge measured 1.31" while my tipping bucket measured 1.34".
As for yesterday's precip I received only a trace so the see-saw continues.  Month-to-date I have 2.07".  It was already feeling great by 11pm last night when my temp was 74 and dew point had dropped to 63 with a nice breeze.  After spending most of the day with dew points in the low to mid 70's a drop to the mid 60's felt wonderful.  Right now my dp is 62.  Low this morning was 62.2.

Did you hear or see a large fireworks display near you last night?


.

[CarlislePaWx]

6 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Did you hear or see a large fireworks display near you last night?


.

I didn't, but all my windows were closed and I had my headphones on between 9pm and midnight.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I've got both types!  I've got my weather station tipping bucket to have an error rate of less than 3%.  On Thursday my Clear-Vue gauge measured 1.31" while my tipping bucket measured 1.34".

As for yesterday's precip I received only a trace so the see-saw continues.  Month-to-date I have 2.07".  It was already feeling great by 11pm last night when my temp was 74 and dew point had dropped to 63 with a nice breeze.  After spending most of the day with dew points in the low to mid 70's a drop to the mid 60's felt wonderful.  Right now my dp is 62.  Low this morning was 62.2.

Carlisle you’re a beast haha. Love it!

[Streak]

Hearing the first cicadas in central/east York county today. 

[Bubbler86]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP has slashed my rain chances for tomorrow from 70% down to 30%. We just might salvage a dry weekend.

Have not been watching Sunday much but just scanned models and they are pretty gung ho on morning and evening rain chances tomorrow. I still need more goods over here :-).   GFS paints a rainy few days in a row.  I remember @losetoa6 was calling that out as a possible setup. 

[Itstrainingtime]

54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Have not been watching Sunday much but just scanned models and they are pretty gung ho on morning and evening rain chances tomorrow. I still need more goods over here :-).   GFS paints a rainy few days in a row.  I remember @losetoa6 was calling that out as a possible setup. 

While CTP has significantly lowered rain chances, they seem somewhat "enthused" about severe:

The warm front should arrive in the srn counties Sunday
morning.

Some breaks in the clouds should heat things up again during the
late morning and afternoon right along with the dewpoint rise
and juicy PWATs around 2 inches.

Sct convection is expected with rather meager CAPE to be found
in the aftn according across the NE half of the state, while the
combination of a better chance for periods of sunshine and more
broad- looping hodographs in the low-levels across southern and
perhaps central PA, creates the better chance for strong to
severe convection with 0-1 km EHIs in the 1-3 M2/S2 range in the
afternoon and early evening. in addition, the low-level shear
vector, storm motion and close proximity of the warm front,
suggest the most favorable area for TSRA ingestion of moderately
strong llvl streamwise vorticity will be over south- central PA
and the Laurel Highlands between 20Z Sunday and 02Z Monday when
0-1KM EHIs could peak in the 2-3 M2/S2 range.

Per Coordination with SPC, they expanded their DY2 MRGL risk for
severe across practically all of our CWA, with an inclusion of
2% tornado risk.

There is also a bit of CIN to be found in the soundings. Thus,
the convection could struggle to get going, or be elevated
enough to mitigate any worries of wind gusts, at least initially
over the south, and perhaps for a longer period over the
northern zones.

Highs Sunday will be in the m70s N and low-mid 80s in the South.

[Bubbler86]

57 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

While CTP has significantly lowered rain chances, they seem somewhat "enthused" about severe:

The warm front should arrive in the srn counties Sunday
morning.

Some breaks in the clouds should heat things up again during the
late morning and afternoon right along with the dewpoint rise
and juicy PWATs around 2 inches.

Sct convection is expected with rather meager CAPE to be found
in the aftn according across the NE half of the state, while the
combination of a better chance for periods of sunshine and more
broad- looping hodographs in the low-levels across southern and
perhaps central PA, creates the better chance for strong to
severe convection with 0-1 km EHIs in the 1-3 M2/S2 range in the
afternoon and early evening. in addition, the low-level shear
vector, storm motion and close proximity of the warm front,
suggest the most favorable area for TSRA ingestion of moderately
strong llvl streamwise vorticity will be over south- central PA
and the Laurel Highlands between 20Z Sunday and 02Z Monday when
0-1KM EHIs could peak in the 2-3 M2/S2 range.

Per Coordination with SPC, they expanded their DY2 MRGL risk for
severe across practically all of our CWA, with an inclusion of
2% tornado risk.

There is also a bit of CIN to be found in the soundings. Thus,
the convection could struggle to get going, or be elevated
enough to mitigate any worries of wind gusts, at least initially
over the south, and perhaps for a longer period over the
northern zones.

Highs Sunday will be in the m70s N and low-mid 80s in the South.

Will be interesting to see who (if any)score tomorrow AM.  Not often we get showers in the AM without a decent front of SLP in the vicinity.   The low is depicted to be well west of us at the time. 

[Bubbler86]

7 hours ago, TimB84 said:

No complaints here. Of course there will be some heat at some point, but I really feel if PIT never sees 95 (or MDT never sees 100), we dodged a bullet the way this summer is going elsewhere in the nation.

And living in the present and not fantasy land, my DP is in the 50s and will likely remain there all day. Official low at the airport was 54 and weather stations near me went to ~52-53. Good shot at my 6th day this month with a high in the 70s after seeing none last July. Life is good.

Looks like the 18Z GFS has Big Ben being benched in Game 5.  Still in fantasy land though! 

[Bubbler86]

6 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like latest guidance likes north of the turnpike on north for the best shot at training storms ...but I think the m/d line still does ok Sunday-Tues .

Decent coverage this Am.  We scored about .15" but see some better cells to my east.

[Bubbler86]

Another line forming from the Burg down to Thurmont.  I think Losetoa should have scored quite well this AM.   1/2-3/4"? 

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Another line forming from the Burg down to Thurmont.  I think Losetoa should have scored quite well this AM.   1/2-3/4"? 

That cell just east of Taneytown is def going to be a bingo 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

That cell just east of Taneytown is def going to be a bingo 

Strafing the M/D Line in Adams.  Afternoon rains look less likely now so get it while you can. 

[Voyager]

12 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

A couple more pics of my modified  Buick GN . It was a beautiful low humidity day to take the Turbo Buick out man . Methonal injection is awesome . You can see the reflection of my RUSH T shirt in the center cap of the steering wheel lol. Love freaking Rush .

 

That's one sweet ride! I had always wanted a Buick Grand National. I always thought they were much cooler than a Monte Carlo SS.

 

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Strafing the M/D Line in Adams.  Afternoon rains look less likely now so get it while you can. 

I got nothing this morning...

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

That's on sweet ride! I had always wanted a Buick Grand National. I always thought they were much cooler than a Monte Carlo SS.

 

I got nothing this morning...

Afternoon rains are a lot closer to you on the HRRR but you still may be a tad too south. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Picked up exactly. 25" of rain this morning from 2 intense, but very brief downpours.

[Storm Clouds]

Sun is starting to come out here now…hopefully that is a good sign for later! 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

.40" 

Have to start mowing 2 days a week again 

I mowed yesterday for the first time in 2 weeks. Looks like I'll probably mow again by Wednesday.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

Sun is starting to come out here now…hopefully that is a good sign for later! 

Storm clouds are definitely clearing here as well.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Picked up exactly. 25" of rain this morning from 2 intense, but very brief downpours.

Only .06” over here. Familiar story haha. 

[Newman]

Tornado risk for much of west central PA today

[TimB]

@Bubbler86

Deep into GFS fantasy land, a nightmare emerges.

[Cashtown_Coop]

26 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86

Deep into GFS fantasy land, a nightmare emerges.

With so many parts of the country having excessive heat this summer, you’d have to think that the east coast will have its turn at some point.   I think there will be a 3 to 5 day period where major cities hit 100+.  I hope I’m wrong.   

[Itstrainingtime]

57 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Highest dewpoint of the season 

77 

86/76 here. It honestly feels worse than when it was 96. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

With so many parts of the country have excessive heat this summer, you’d have to think that the east coast will have its turn at some point.   I think there will be a 3 to 5 day period where major cities hit 100+.  I hope I’m wrong.   

I hope you're wrong too, but betting money says you're likely right. 

It's coming. Eventually.