Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: So true. Take Lancaster County for instance, my little area in the northwest part of the county is well under average the past couple of months while the rest of the county is fine. I've only gotten an inch in the past three and a half weeks. 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I've only mowed twice since returning from vacation on June 12th. Or I should say, I've only mowed once since June 13th. Seems to be a regular summer these days with large areas facing drought concerns even if on D0 or D1. The drought map may be coming back next week if the pattern plays out like the GFS and Euro predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Seems to be a regular summer these days with large areas facing drought concerns even if on D0 or D1. The drought map may be coming back next week if the pattern plays out like the GFS and Euro predict. There is a remarkable difference between my home and work, which is 12 miles south of me. Yards look healthy and rain has been plentiful. The dry areas seem to be more spotty in nature this year, but where it's dry it's been very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: There is a remarkable difference between my home and work, which is 12 miles south of me. Yards look healthy and rain has been plentiful. The dry areas seem to be more spotty in nature this year, but where it's dry it's been very much so. Compared to last year, I have received a cornucopia of rain. But it has dried up the last several weeks and the constant above average temps and beating down sun are working their magic. I feel like there have been more days with hit or miss showers this year vs. last but its been much warmer this year (up to this point) which is nullifying some of the extra rain we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 I am not amused. Our best shot over here may be with the weak frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Still holding out hope for some action this evening, as some of the other models want to bring something through. But the best of Elsa's remnants almost certainly seem to be staying east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I am not amused. Our best shot over here may be with the weak frontal passage tomorrow afternoon. Still holding out hope for some action this evening, as some of the other models want to bring something through. But the best of Elsa's remnants almost certainly seem to be staying east. The Nam is an LSV kick in the groin today. Tropical systems can but just as bad as good if you just miss them. Leaves behind drying air and limits convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The Nam is an LSV kick in the groin today. Tropical systems can but just as bad as good if you just miss them. Leaves behind drying air and limits convection. Screw the NAM only good in the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: Screw the NAM now only good in the winter but it is the king in the winter! Speaking of Kings, I reading somewhere that they "upgraded" the Euro late last year. Since then has been its run of questionable skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam is an LSV kick in the groin today. Tropical systems can but just as bad as good if you just miss them. Leaves behind drying air and limits convection. Oh don't I know it. On the other side of those intense outer swirling bands are often strong zones of subsidence. Such is the game of chance we call weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Speaking of Kings, I reading somewhere that they "upgraded" the Euro late last year. Since then has been its run of questionable skills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Oh don't I know it. On the other side of those intense outer swirling bands are often strong zones of subsidence. Such is the game of chance we call weather. GFS broad brushes some rain over the LSV this evening but certainly nothing to get excited about. Don't tell your daughters but Elsa has failed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 One positive. GFS is on board with the very refreshing Sat Am temps now. Someone in Western PA/Tim Land may get into the 40's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Speaking of Kings, I reading somewhere that they "upgraded" the Euro late last year. Since then has been its run of questionable skills. Just before they upgraded the GFS, which began its run of superiority then. 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: One positive. GFS is on board with the very refreshing Sat Am temps now. Someone in Western PA/Tim Land may get into the 40's. GFS has really cut those numbers the past few runs. Loving it. Also currently a rain induced 69/68 at noon in the ‘burgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 CTP is sticking to their "it's def going to rain today" stance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: CTP is sticking to their "it's def going to rain today" stance. Maybe they believe there is a 90% chance that 10% of us see rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Just before they upgraded the GFS, which began its run of superiority then. GFS has really cut those numbers the past few runs. Loving it. Also currently a rain induced 69/68 at noon in the ‘burgh. 3K nam leading the way on Sat temps? I would be willing to put up with an 82/81 if it meant we got some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 8, 2021 Author Share Posted July 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP is sticking to their "it's def going to rain today" stance. They did just update temperatures though - early this morning my forecast high was near 80, now it's 85. Good thing they did that, it's currently partly sunny and 84 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 39 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Just before they upgraded the GFS, which began its run of superiority then. GFS has really cut those numbers the past few runs. Loving it. Also currently a rain induced 69/68 at noon in the ‘burgh. The GFS is a boon for your weekends. Again, 70ish at noon the following Saturday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: They did just update temperatures though - early this morning my forecast high was near 80, now it's 85. Good thing they did that, it's currently partly sunny and 84 here. That is how they are always right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: They did just update temperatures though - early this morning my forecast high was near 80, now it's 85. Good thing they did that, it's currently partly sunny and 84 here. Don’t you just hate when that happens? That and when you’re expecting, say, 4 days of heat, but the front keeps slowing down and you get through the first day and there are still 4 more days of heat, then you get through the second day and there are STILL 4 more days of heat, etc.? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 12Z GFS was a huge step in the right direction. We'll see if the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS is a boon for your weekends. Again, 70ish at noon the following Saturday, Ah, the ridge we knew was coming looks like it might finally make an appearance later on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Ah, the ridge we knew was coming looks like it might finally make an appearance later on the GFS. I just hope we get some rain prior to it. If we push it back far enough into July the 100's club starts to lose steam each day we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS broad brushes some rain over the LSV this evening but certainly nothing to get excited about. Don't tell your daughters but Elsa has failed us. Yeah and the HRRR has been hinting at some areas of moderate to heavy rain this evening but unfortunately one of the GFS's greatest known biases is overdoing the extent of light precipitation. Failed Elsa has, into exile she must go *my best Yoda voice* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I just hope we get some rain prior to it. If we push it back far enough into July the 100's club starts to lose steam each day we go. Forgot we’re getting close to the date when climo starts working in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 All apologies to the dry/clean/subsidence side of a tropical storm, its probably not that often that a Tropical Storm warning is this close to Lancaster, from a storm well inland to the S/W, yet Lancaster could have not little to no apparent weather effect from it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Ah, the ridge we knew was coming looks like it might finally make an appearance later on the GFS. Just kidding, the “entertainment purposes only” portion allows a massive Canadian trough to beat down the ridge and push 40s into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Forgot we’re getting close to the date when climo starts working in our favor. After July 25th, MDT has only reach 100 eleven of the potential 50 days into Early Sept...so a bit over 20%. The month prior going back to June 25th, MDT has reach 100 23 of the potential 31 days or 75%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: After July 25th, MDT has only reach 100 eleven of the potential 50 days into Early Sept...so a bit over 20%. The month prior going back to June 25th, MDT has reach 100 23 of the potential 31 days or 75%. With apologies to Sauss and Voyager and Western PA’s leading summer poster and a certain orange tagger and a certain green tagger in an unnamed subforum, there may be light at the end of this tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Just kidding, the “entertainment purposes only” portion allows a massive Canadian trough to beat down the ridge and push 40s into PA. @paweather @ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 8, 2021 Share Posted July 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: @paweather @ Bring the 540 down! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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