TimB Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 First July day since 2018 that failed to reach 80 at MDT. Now there’s a stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 3 hours ago, TimB84 said: First July day since 2018 that failed to reach 80 at MDT. Now there’s a stat. July going to start with a negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: July going to start with a negative. And a positive for precip! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 6 hours ago, TimB84 said: First July day since 2018 that failed to reach 80 at MDT. Now there’s a stat. There is a chance that today also does not make it to 80 at MDT, but it’s going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs day 5 clustering Has really pulled away from the Florida coast destroy theory. Exactly as @Superstorm predicted. WAR...what is it good for...saving TPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 This includes 1/4-1/2" over the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 Picked up .04" since midnight, giving me an "event" total of .58". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 10 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My buddy’s cabin that I’ve been going to for decades is just west of you, a few miles south of Gaines on top of a hill. It really is like leaving the modern world behind when you go up there, love it. I'm betting you know where the gift shop w/ the caboose is?? I'm up on top of that "hill". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Saw this spotter report....is it saying he picked up 1.75" in 45 min? Did not know Lancaster County had rain on that level yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Saw this spotter report....is it saying he picked up 1.75" in 45 min? Did not know Lancaster County had rain on that level yesterday. The cell that was warned for our area around 2pm yesterday both strengthened and slowed as it moved into eastern Lanco. Yes, there were some nice totals from the eastern part of the county. I believe that neighboring Chester was under a Flash Flood Warning as a result of that cell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The cell that was warned for our area around 2pm yesterday both strengthened and slowed as it moved into eastern Lanco. Yes, there were some nice totals from the eastern part of the county. I believe that neighboring Chester was under a Flash Flood Warning as a result of that cell. There must be a huge disparity between different parts of Lanco for the Spring and Summer. That area near Gap/Chester keeps piling it on. Blizz might have to loan them some of his grass mowing apparatus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Elsa is officially a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Elsa is officially a Hurricane. It seems to happen so fast these last couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: It seems to happen so fast these last couple years. And almost always before models prog it. The Euro is out of this discussion because it has had almost nothing right with the intensification but not sure anything else had it popping this quickly. I have so very little faith in model intensity forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: And almost always before models prog it. The Euro is out of this discussion because it has had almost nothing right with the intensification but not sure anything else had it popping this quickly. I have so very little faith in model intensity forecasts. I mean the NHC’s 5am forecast never had it reaching hurricane intensity through 5 days. The CMC might also be of interest, it never puts Elsa into the Gulf at all and runs it just off the east coast before landfall in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: I mean the NHC’s 5am forecast never had it reaching hurricane intensity through 5 days. The CMC might also be of interest, it never puts Elsa into the Gulf at all and runs it just off the east coast before landfall in SC. I saw that and yea the NHC forecasts are always behind as well. At least the last few years, like you said. I suspect the NHC was letting the Euro weigh in some with their thoughts. Between the Hwrfurf GFS, HeyMon, and CMC all of Florida should certainly be thinking about what they will do if they are under a Hurricane Warning Monday. I checked the news papers down there and they are all hyping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw that and yea the NHC forecasts are always behind as well. At least the last few years, like you said. I suspect the NHC was letting the Euro weigh in some with their thoughts. Between the Hwrfurf GFS, HeyMon, and CMC all of Florida should certainly be thinking about what they will do if they are under a Hurricane Warning Monday. I checked the news papers down there and they are all hyping it. The thing that especially seems to be a meteorological unknown is the whole rapid intensification thing. May not apply with this storm because we’re early in the season and there should be a fair amount of land interaction before it gets to Florida. Still, there’s definitely a decent chance this makes landfall in Florida and is at hurricane strength when it does so. Also, we’re running several days ahead of even last year’s schedule with the timing of the “E” storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: The thing that especially seems to be a meteorological unknown is the whole rapid intensification thing. May not apply with this storm because we’re early in the season and there should be a fair amount of land interaction before it gets to Florida. Still, there’s definitely a decent chance this makes landfall in Florida and is at hurricane strength when it does so. Also, we’re running several days ahead of even last year’s schedule with the timing of the “E” storm. Another thing that is usually not very good. Hurricane seasonal forecasting. But anyone that think this could NOT gain Cat 4 or 5 strength is fooling themselves. It could go from 2-4 in the Straights of Cuba alone if it slowed down by then. So I agree that this part of the forecast is usually off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 I almost forgot: the peak of daily mean temperatures per climo is in GFS range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 17 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I almost forgot: the peak of daily mean temperatures per climo is in GFS range! Good. Let's get it over with and make the descent (in a fabulous way) towards Autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Elsa is officially a Hurricane. Let it go... (I hope that you got that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Let it go... Florida is going to get rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Florida is going to get rocked. Yes. And speaking of Florida, when Bubbler posted about Elsa being a hurricane, I immediately thought of Elsa from Frozen. And that's why I simply said "Let It Go" (for those who know anything about Frozen, there's a song called Let It Go) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes. And speaking of Florida, when Bubbler posted about Elsa being a hurricane, I immediately thought of Elsa from Frozen. And that's why I simply said "Let It Go" (for those who know anything about Frozen, there's a song called Let It Go) Gotcha! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Let it go... (I hope that you got that) I got it . Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 On 6/24/2021 at 11:51 AM, Itstrainingtime said: Every day like this is one potential hot, miserable day that won't happen. Bump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Bump. Exactly! Nice little stretch of weather where we push pause before the heat really comes back next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Exactly! Nice little stretch of weather where we push pause before the heat really comes back next week. 65/53 at 11am in the ‘burgh. I know you guys are a bit warmer than that but still good enough for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 2, 2021 Share Posted July 2, 2021 Cold Front should be coming through soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 2, 2021 Author Share Posted July 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 65/53 at 11am in the ‘burgh. I know you guys are a bit warmer than that but still good enough for July. 73 here - far cry from the 91-93 degree readings at this time Monday through Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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