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Central PA - Summer 2021


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8 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Whoever likes this weather and cheers on 90+ degree days with 99% humidity should be forced to pay my electric bill since my AC can barely keep up with this. 
 

I really hope this is the worst stretch all summer.

Those of us warmanistas could say the same when it comes to polar blasts in the winter when my furnace almost never shuts off...

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23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

No one here does it at the cost of other around them.  That is another forum were people are uncaring of your A/C. Ha.   I am in the same boat.    A/C has trouble keeping the house a constant temp. 

Wait, there are no holds barred weather forums where people don’t give a rat’s *** about their fellow weather enthusiasts?

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Started this AM at 70.   HRRR has me getting to 98 today.     Weekend front is very progressive on the EC this AM.  Even Friday turns out ok as to not much in the way of steady rain around.  Other two are still a lot more unsettled for the weekend. 

I had 75. feels more muggy today then yesterday. The sun will be out in full force here soon.

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56 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Those of us warmanistas could say the same when it comes to polar blasts in the winter when my furnace almost never shuts off...

Trust me I don’t root for subzero weather either lol. Nothing worse than 10 degrees and no snow.

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5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I hit 98 yesterday.  Might have a chance to reach or top that today.  HRRR says there's a chance, MOS guidance is not as enthused. 

We've been matching each other on temps a lot - I'll live vicariously through your updates until I replace my equipment. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm not sure why I post the WPC maps as often as I do - as frustrated as I get over snow maps, these QPF maps aren't much more accurate. 

It's not your fault.  It's like me mentioning WGAL future radar.  LOL.  But my point was it would be better for verbiage and guidance in word form otherwise the WPC maps just look like qpf maps from the latest model runs.   The maps we post are just a piece of the puzzle. 

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12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

According to channel 27 in Harrisburg, Brett Thackeray said the risk is low. And would be north of Harrisburg if there is any.

He must not be a fan of the Meso models as to location of storms.  LOL.  Its fair not to be.  But here is the 3K qpf map through this evening with the majority of LSV storms being south or central.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capture3.JPG

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14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

According to channel 27 in Harrisburg, Brett Thackeray said the risk is low. And would be north of Harrisburg if there is any.

 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

He must not be a fan of the Meso models as to location of storms.  LOL.  Its fair not to be.  But here is the 3K qpf map through this evening with the majority of LSV storms being south or central.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Capture3.JPG

he is my least favorite Met. I turn channel if he is on

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's not your fault.  It's like me mentioning WGAL future radar.  LOL.  But my point was it would be better for verbiage and guidance in word form otherwise the WPC maps just look like qpf maps from the latest model runs.   The maps we post are just a piece of the puzzle. 

Preach it! 

By the way, there is a lot of high level cloudiness over here already. Sun is filtered out pretty good at this moment. 

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13 minutes ago, paweather said:

What are the ratios for tomorrow? LOL.....Just thought I would add some winter into the discussion. 

0:1. BUT, we’re less than 16 weeks away from the date that we know measurable snow can fall in these parts.

Looks like the last measurable snow at MDT was 128 days ago. And 128 days from now would put us at Nov. 5. It’s at least possible (maybe not likely yet) that you’re past the halfway point.

But not me. My last measurable snow was 70 days ago, and I don’t think I’ll be seeing any on 9/8.

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45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We've been matching each other on temps a lot - I'll live vicariously through your updates until I replace my equipment. 

Yes I've noticed that, a bit surprising in that my low location off the ridge line usually has me as one of the hotter spots around, but perhaps you get a bit of UHI to offset that?  Not sure how "downtown" you really are ha.

I'll do my best to support you during these difficult times but I must admit I don't love my current station.  It's one of those La Crosse models that looks cute but isn't great for tracking data.  Heck, I still haven't figured out how it keeps its high/low temps, seems to only go back a few hours when doing so.  Basically, I have to keep pretty good tabs on it to get accurate readings.  Also, in the interest of full disclosure, during these long-path sun days in the dead of summer my sensor gets some direct sun during the early morning and late evening hours that causes it to read high during those times, particularly the morning where I basically have to ignore the temps for an hour or two.  This despite being stationed on the north side of my house and of course having the housing piece around it that is supposed to prevent that, but naturally doesn't fully do so.  I really liked my old station that tracked data better and measured to the tenth of the degree, even though the display wasn't "pretty" ha, but it took a crap after years of service and in a pinch I got one of the trendy Amazon recommended ones.  I have a real nice one that was gifted to me in the basement (brand name eludes me at the moment) that I'm waiting to set up until we move to a new location.  I've said too much.....

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56 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

According to channel 27 in Harrisburg, Brett Thackeray said the risk is low. And would be north of Harrisburg if there is any.

Literally the past 3 days there have been storms that appeared directly west of harrisburg but they eventually disappeared and didn't move far enough to get directly over harrisburg afik. I was actually wondering if the same thing'll happen again today

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That map will verify. Book it. 

No updates on temps from me for the time being. My station needs a new sensor.  :(

if we get the qpf modeled (and likely) for thursday.....I'll take the NAM weekend maps for $1,000 Alex....

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2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

According to channel 27 in Harrisburg, Brett Thackeray said the risk is low. And would be north of Harrisburg if there is any.

Frontal boundary still pretty far NW.  I think he's more right than wrong, but afternoon max heating might surprise.  Watch WV as thats where our show will come from.  Boundary gets close enough and mixes w/ max heating and maybe so.  These pesky SE ridges usually need better forcing for LSV as we are too far east of the domes western edge.

 

 

Static map

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11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Frontal boundary still pretty far NW.  I think he's more right than wrong, but afternoon max heating might surprise.  Watch WV as thats where our show will come from.  Boundary gets close enough and mixes w/ max heating and maybe so.  These pesky SE ridges usually need better forcing for LSV as we are too far east of the dome.

 

 

 

Good graphic.  I think that frontal boundary is more a Thursday thing for us and the pop up variety is our destiny for today.   The models showing storms a bit father south are doing it under the premise that being close but a bit too far south of that boundary is going to be the "loser zone".   They all seem to have dry zones just to the south and east of the boundary influence areas. 

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yes I've noticed that, a bit surprising in that my low location off the ridge line usually has me as one of the hotter spots around, but perhaps you get a bit of UHI to offset that?  Not sure how "downtown" you really are ha.

I'll do my best to support you during these difficult times but I must admit I don't love my current station.  It's one of those La Crosse models that looks cute but isn't great for tracking data.  Heck, I still haven't figured out how it keeps its high/low temps, seems to only go back a few hours when doing so.  Basically, I have to keep pretty good tabs on it to get accurate readings.  Also, in the interest of full disclosure, during these long-path sun days in the dead of summer my sensor gets some direct sun during the early morning and late evening hours that causes it to read high during those times, particularly the morning where I basically have to ignore the temps for an hour or two.  This despite being stationed on the north side of my house and of course having the housing piece around it that is supposed to prevent that, but naturally doesn't fully do so.  I really liked my old station that tracked data better and measured to the tenth of the degree, even though the display wasn't "pretty" ha, but it took a crap after years of service and in a pinch I got one of the trendy Amazon recommended ones.  I have a real nice one that was gifted to me in the basement (brand name eludes me at the moment) that I'm waiting to set up until we move to a new location.  I've said too much.....

I have an Ambient Weather Station - not the most high tech nor super expensive (about $200 for my model) but it has been extremely accurate, save for wind. And that is on me, because I didn't mount it high enough nor far enough away from my house to get accurate wind measurements. Overall though, I've been super pleased with my station! 

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55 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if we get the qpf modeled (and likely) for thursday.....I'll take the NAM weekend maps for $1,000 Alex....

 

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

The trend for any meaningful rain is rapidly going away, which really really really sucks. 

1" is my bar - I don't need 4-6" of rain to be satisfied. If we can get an inch, perhaps a little more, I'd be thrilled. Though there is some cause for concern that at least some areas might not get that. 

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