Central PA - Summer 2021

[Blizzard of 93]

20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is some serious rains.  CMC like. 

Hopefully we get some rain, but not a total washout for the holiday weekend festivities.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully we get some rain, but not a total washout for the holiday weekend festivities.

That has been the vein of the PBP's the last few days. When does the trough carve out and move over us.  Trend has been for it to stay to our west more and more. 

[Bubbler86]

96 at MDT yesterday and a good chance it breaks 90 the final two days of June.  Will give them 1/3 of the days in the month at a 90 or higher.  We have been talking about heat waves.  The whole month has been an on and off one.   May we never get a June this hot again (unlikely but can hope). 

[mahantango#1]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

96 at MDT yesterday and a good chance it breaks 90 the final two days of June.  Will give them 1/3 of the days in the month at a 90 or higher.  We have been talking about heat waves.  The whole month has been an on and off one.   May we never get a June this hot again (unlikely but can hope). 

I have had 13 days so far this month that have hit 90 or higher.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I have had 13 days so far this month that have hit 90 or higher.

Hopefully not the new norm.  

[Voyager]

All this heat talk and what sticks in my mind we're the six mornings of 40 degree lows... 

[Bubbler86]

21 minutes ago, Voyager said:

All this heat talk and what sticks in my mind we're the six mornings of 40 degree lows... 

Some have but MDT has not.  Which brings into question all their records again.  The lowest temp they recorded was 53.  But I agree its been a month of extremes for those of us with the colder nights...see if Jones wants to track pre 80 June's and see where it ranks.  As of now it will probably rank as the second hottest June since 1980 (1994) unless the departures are so extreme the next two days that it makes up 1.3 degrees and passes 1994 to become the hottest. 

[sauss06]

looks like the weekend is a washout 

[TimB]

33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some have but MDT has not.  Which brings into question all their records again.  The lowest temp they recorded was 53.  But I agree its been a month of extremes for those of us with the colder nights...see if Jones wants to track pre 80 June's and see where it ranks.  As of now it will probably rank as the second hottest June since 1980 (1994) unless the departures are so extreme the next two days that it makes up 1.3 degrees and passes 1994 to become the hottest. 

Here’s the data. Based on current forecasts, MDT would finish the month with an average of 75.5.

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Here’s the data. Based on current forecasts, MDT would finish the month with an average of 75.5. 

Great, thanks.  So probable number 3 hottest all time.  1943 is almost surely out of reach.  That list goes back to 1888 and 6 of them are from the last 3 decades.  

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Great, thanks.  So probable number 3 hottest all time.  1932 is almost surely out of reach.  That list goes back to 1888 and 6 of them are from the last 3 decades.  

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org is what I use. Makes finding this data much easier.

[Bubbler86]

I will save that and try to remember to use it.  I usually go to the NWS CTP site and manually check year to year.  

[Streak]

22 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

looks like the weekend is a washout 

We planned our festivities for the 3rd this year. I was digging last week’s look that had us in the mid 70s, even when it included chance of showers. 

I got a pretty deep cut on my finger last week while pruning and doing general garden/landscape maintenance. Wonder if the weather gods would accept that as a “blood sacrifice” and reward us with a mid 70s - low 80s and sunny weekend with periods of abundant rain before Saturday and after Sunday … 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org is what I use.

Hey, I know you said the HRRR over does your area a lot but over here it is hinting at a 100 for MDT today.  I think I saw 97 and 98 on two different runs.  Has you mid 90's. 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hey, I know you said the HRRR over does your area a lot but over here it is hinting at a 100 for MDT today.  I think I saw 97 and 98 on two different runs.  Has you mid 90's. 

We did get to 92 yesterday so the HRRR was good.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

We did get to 92 yesterday so the HRRR was good.

So a 94 or 95 on tap today (in between hours).   Latest HRR has its first LSV 98 showing. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

So a 94 or 95 on tap today?  Latest HRR has its first LSV 98 showing. 

NWS is suggesting we get to just 90 today, but they also have a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. But I wouldn’t say 94 or 95 out here is impossible if we don’t get the clouds or convection. 

[Bubbler86]

78 here at 9AM so we are not going 100 today but Wundermap showing plenty of 85's and 86's near Harrisburg. 

[sauss06]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

78 here at 9AM so we are not going 100 today but Wundermap showing plenty of 85's and 86's near Harrisburg. 

we will be over 90 today. $2 on us hitting between 92-95

[Itstrainingtime]

This has been the hottest month that hasn't felt hot to me in a very long time. What I'll remember about June is the stretches of really nice weather. (I was out of town during the first heat wave back in early June)

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

78 here at 9AM so we are not going 100 today but Wundermap showing plenty of 85's and 86's near Harrisburg. 

Holy jeepers alive! I'm sitting at 86.6 already. I'll be poised to hit 90 during the 10am hour. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Heads up Lackawanna Valley:

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Holy jeepers alive! I'm sitting at 86.6 already. I'll be poised to hit 90 during the 10am hour. 

Whatever has been going on this month has really favored elevation.  Check out all these lower temps over here.

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

we will be over 90 today. $2 on us hitting between 92-95

I am not sure about individuals but I think MDT goes 98-100 unless a lucky storm heads their way. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This has been the hottest month that hasn't felt hot to me in a very long time. What I'll remember about June is the stretches of really nice weather. (I was out of town during the first heat wave back in early June)

I think some perception was based on lower forecast numbers on models turning into higher numbers when the actual days arrived.   10 days 90 or over out of 30?  That is pretty significant. 

[sauss06]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am not sure about individuals but I think MDT goes 98-100 unless a lucky storm heads their way. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

96 at MDT yesterday and a good chance it breaks 90 the final two days of June.  Will give them 1/3 of the days in the month at a 90 or higher.  We have been talking about heat waves.  The whole month has been an on and off one.   May we never get a June this hot again (unlikely but can hope). 

Yeah this entire month has been interesting. We'll get multiple days in the low-mid 90's and then get multiple days with really nice low temps in the low 50s and then back to heat again. It's definitely made me think this month hasn't been as hot as its been despite it being really hot lol

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am not sure about individuals but I think MDT goes 98-100 unless a lucky storm heads their way. 

Completely agree. We still have 100% sun, cumulus clouds haven't popped yet. "Feels" like a day when a run at 100 is in reach. 

[Streak]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This has been the hottest month that hasn't felt hot to me in a very long time. What I'll remember about June is the stretches of really nice weather. (I was out of town during the first heat wave back in early June)

Yes, I’ve been thinking about how it is that this June has seemed very pleasant so far where my memory of last June (and last summer in general) is that it was oppressive from start to finish.

I think canderson was right that even with lower temps overall, the omnipresent humidity made it seem worse to me. (I also think the excessive heat in July distorted my memory of the entire summer). 

Reminds me of what a few of you were saying about Orlando; that the high temps themselves aren’t extreme but the constant humidity from May to October is what makes it unpleasant.

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Yeah this entire month has been interesting. We'll get multiple days in the low-mid 90's and then get multiple days with really nice low temps in the low 50s and then back to heat again. It's definitely made me think this month hasn't been as hot as its been despite it being really hot lol

There were a lot of days where we talking about possible low record maxes and then in reality the temps got 5-10 degrees warmer than thought either due to midnight highs or the models being too low.  The midnight highs have a lot of say in this.  At least 2 or 3 days we had great weather in the 60's but the high that day was 75-80 because of the midnight high.   With all this said, 10 days in the 90's not very common at all.