Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Bands will set up north of us. Still 24 hours of north trends yet. Like watching our foot of snow turn into 2” of slush to rain If you look at the current radar it is very similar to the EC depiction early in the storm. We stay fairly dry well into tomorrow. Spotty rains and less than 1" until later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Bands will set up north of us. Still 24 hours of north trends yet. Like watching our foot of snow turn into 2” of slush to rain Been thinking this very thing all day. This is why I get most excited about winter storms that bullseye BALT/WASH at 48 hours out. Unless there's a legit compelling reason why it won't happen, the north trend is real and has taken that 1' of snow and turned to to mush here more times than I can count or even want to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Someone here is going to see 10”+ . Tropical systems are wild cards for sure - I just wonder if the forward motion prohibits double digit totals. I got 15" from Lee but it took many, many hours to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Been thinking this very thing all day. This is why I get most excited about winter storms that bullseye BALT/WASH at 48 hours out. Unless there's a legit compelling reason why it won't happen, the north trend is real and has taken that 1' of snow and turned to to mush here more times than I can count or even want to. Me too. Almost every winter storm that was supposed to miss us to the south ended up being crush jobs for us.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Tropical systems are wild cards for sure - I just wonder if the forward motion prohibits double digit totals. I got 15" from Lee but it took many, many hours to get there. I know what Horst said but 24 hours of rain (varying intensity) is a pretty slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I know what Horst said but 24 hours of rain (varying intensity) is a pretty slow mover. I didn't think we were looking at that long of duration? If so, that changes things. I was thinking this was a 6-10 hour deal...at least the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Me too. Almost every winter storm that was supposed to miss us to the south ended up being crush jobs for us. . And when you and I are in the bullseye 2 days out, get ready for a mixed mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I didn't think we were looking at that long of duration? If so, that changes things. I was thinking this was a 6-10 hour deal...at least the main show. Just taking the 3K as an example, the moderate rain starts at MDT 3Z Wed and stays moderate to heavy until about the same time Thursday. The super heavy stuff is not 24 hours but MDT already has about 2" when that arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 And when you and I are in the bullseye 2 days out, get ready for a mixed mess. Exactly!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It's time to get Voyager off the schneid. Make him the jackpot. Yes!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 18Z HRRR doubles down on Mid PA (for Central and East) for the longest duration of Rain ++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The trend is undeniable atm...but the further north this drives severe weather becomes more possible. I expect lots of surprises with Ida remnants. Knocking on the m/d line Yep, I alluded to that earlier. I'm becoming more concerned about things that spin than things that flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep, I alluded to that earlier. I'm becoming more concerned about things that spin than things that flood. HRRR really shows off the severe potential south of the Turnpike. Lots of the QPF down here is more cell based vs. heavy strat rain. Big Strat LSV totals are Cumberland/Dauphin and North. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
717WeatherLover Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 It's interesting in the office today. The atmosphere feels like we have an impending snow storm with everyone strategizing and excited. Fortunately, we have the option to work from home (so why did our company force us all back into the office?). Hurricane season is my second favorite weather tracking season (even though I lost a home to hurricane Andrew in Homestead). And we thought winter systems were squirrelly? LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I think York/Lancaster counties might see a tornado tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Will Ida put a damper on fall colors? Just saw the first article suggesting as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Basically since May 2019 there was only one high risk for flooding put out until now. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 48 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hrrr pops a few cells later on this evening fwiw Boy that would be crazy way to kick off this rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I called it earlier my district already issued an early dismissal for tomorrow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: I called it earlier my district already issued an early dismissal for tomorrow! When I was a kid we swam across the English Channel against the current both ways while German U boats shot at us. Kids today …. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 None of the rain on radar near HBG is reaching the ground fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: None of the rain on radar near HBG is reaching the ground fwiw. Interesting, light rain at home with less on radar than up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, canderson said: None of the rain on radar near HBG is reaching the ground fwiw. I was out on 81 near the Pike and was having it drizzle a bit but that was about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I thought this was kinda interesting. I guess it gives more perspective on being in a high risk for flooding. Kinda mindblowing places in high risk accounted for 92% of all flood damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Quick take on gfs from a phone view...continues to increase the severe threat for the lsv but also lessens flooding threat from direct rain though susky more at risk. Am I reading it wrong on my 5.5" phone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Conestoga flood warning issued.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 KPHL still my favorite AFD to read.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just one mans observation....the line of precip in the "southern middle" of the state continues to set the stage for the area with the greatest threat of eventual flash flooding from falling rain (vs. upstream runoff). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 And the Extreme qpf model moved a bit North and East. Is that Yellow Tamaqua? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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