KEITH L.I Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 36 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Yeah, not much rain expected further north so Susquehanna should be ok. Creeks and streams will have major issues. . How much rain did this area have with Agnes in 1972?..I know the Susquehanna had major problems with flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: How much rain did this area have with Agnes in 1972?..I know the Susquehanna had major problems with flooding A pretty decent amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: How much rain did this area have with Agnes in 1972?..I know the Susquehanna had major problems with flooding 3 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: A pretty decent amount And as a few others have stated, the big difference between Agnes and Lee when comparing to Ida is how much more of the watershed that was affected by the first 2 storms. Susquehanna will swell down this area somewhat but won't have much extra flow coming down from farther north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And as a few others have stated, the big difference between Agnes and Lee when comparing to Ida is how much more of the watershed that was affected by the first 2 storms. Susquehanna will swell down this area somewhat but won't have much extra flow coming down from farther north. Something I noticed was that central PA's worst flooding events were in 1936, 1972 and 2011 and all of them had 40 years give or take between them. So us getting another potential record so soon after Lee would be kinda crazy if it can rival those 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Something I noticed was that central PA's worst flooding events were in 1936, 1972 and 2011 and all of them had 40 years give or take between them. So us getting another potential record so soon after Lee would be kinda crazy if it can rival thoseNew climate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 12Z HRRR, Whether you want to call it a stall or just a slower moving front that first though, it is raining varying intensities through out much of the area for ~28-30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Something I noticed was that central PA's worst flooding events were in 1936, 1972 and 2011 and all of them had 40 years give or take between them. So us getting another potential record so soon after Lee would be kinda crazy if it can rival those Some models (I just saw the NAM) focus the heaviest rain north of MDT so in those scenarios there would be some downstream raises I would suspect. Not upstream N PA style though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 12Z HRRR, Whether you want to call it a stall or just a slower moving front that first though, it is raining varying intensities through out much of the area for ~28-30 hours. Look where the rain has broken out this morning and look at current frontal position. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, Jns2183 said: Look where the rain has broken out this morning and look at current frontal position. . Frankly I do not have time to dive in unfortunately but did stop to look at the HRRR and Nam depictions to watch trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Frankly I do not have time to dive in unfortunately but did stop to look at the HRRR and Nam depictions to watch trends. The question I have is are these totals more likely to be under or over estimated. I’m not sure given it being a tropical system . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: The question I have is are these totals more likely to be under or over estimated. I’m not sure given it being a tropical system . I error on under with the pwats and situation. (Assuming all features fall in line exactly the way that specific model depiction says they will). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 My guess: Harrisburg 4.2"Lancaster 5.1" York 5.2"Tamaqua 2.9" Williamsport 2.9" State College 3.1" Chambersburg 5.4" Clearfield 1.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Harrisburg 7.1"Lancaster 6.3" York 5.7"Tamaqua 5.7" Williamsport 4.6" State College 4.8" Chambersburg 6.2" Clearfield 4.4" Lollipops over double digits in areas....maybe not at official reporting stations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Harrisburg 7.1"Lancaster 6.3" York 5.7"Tamaqua 5.7" Williamsport 4.6" State College 4.8" Chambersburg 6.2" Clearfield 4.4" Pillow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Pillow? 9.4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Pillow? This much 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Yet a different jackpot in this guessing game while the Icon is an MSV and Voyager mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Pillow is taking on water. GFS has the same though a bit less on top totals. Spotlight really north this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 CTP has proactively issued Flood Warnings for many streams and creeks in south-central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP has proactively issued Flood Warnings for many streams and creeks in south-central PA. I saw that. Surprising. The first shield of rain is already here out this way. So much for mowing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw that. Surprising. The first shield of rain is already here out this way. So much for mowing today. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow - as to be expected, axis of heaviest rains is shifting from run to run. The area getting "significant" rain is fairly small in size...latest GFS has the southeast half of Lanco getting 1" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Going to be an interesting day tomorrow - as to be expected, axis of heaviest rains is shifting from run to run. The area getting "significant" rain is fairly small in size...latest GFS has the southeast half of Lanco getting 1" total. Yea, one more shift North and I am going to suspend Operation Basement "Everything on plastic tables". 3-5" is not going to give us issues but this trend does give the Susquehanna people more to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 31, 2021 Author Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, one more shift North and I am going to suspend Operation Basement "Everything on plastic tables". 3-5" is not going to give us issues but this trend does give the Susquehanna people more to think about. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Pillow is taking on water. GFS has the same though a bit less on top totals. Spotlight really north this afternoon. Great, Cumberland county a pretty orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 19 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m more wish casting the rain to miss. I can handle 2-4” of rain but 6” or more would really damage the courses Your wishcasting is working but the wrong way. MA forum is talking about being cloudy and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, sauss06 said: Great, Cumberland county a pretty orange. The Icon has been at the upper end of qpf totals so extremes. I would wait for a few more model runs to make sure the USV is not the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Cam Newton in Steel Town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Great, Cumberland county a pretty orange. You might have a rough day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Yes i noticed the northward trend for the heaviest precip. I hope this is not another Lee. We were flooded in for 3 days from the Mahantango creek.Our area got 15 in. from that one. Seems to be favoring this area again. and were within abt. 12 hours of the event starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Cam Newton in Steel Town? Him and Juju can make tick tocks together. Perfect fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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