mahantango#1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 As we get closer to Ida's remnants, whats the take on rainfall we would actually receive in The Susquehanna Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 50 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: As we get closer to Ida's remnants, whats the take on rainfall we would actually receive in The Susquehanna Valley? CTP this morning is saying a general 2-4" across most of Central PA, with some spots potentially getting up to 6". This seems less than what the consensus was last evening, but I'm far from an expert with tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 See...even the NWS gets it. Look how they painted the 4-6 inch gradient AROUND Schuylkill County. There is ALWAYS a dip in qpf here.. Somehow, my location always ends up getting the shaft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 39 minutes ago, Voyager said: See...even the NWS gets it. Look how they painted the 4-6 inch gradient AROUND Schuylkill County. There is ALWAYS a dip in qpf here.. Somehow, my location always ends up getting the shaft... Man, this looks like our snow maps in the winter in Pittsburgh lol. honestly I’m fine with missing this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 I'm in the orange zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 @Blizzard of 93 540 progression: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Voyager said: See...even the NWS gets it. Look how they painted the 4-6 inch gradient AROUND Schuylkill County. There is ALWAYS a dip in qpf here.. Somehow, my location always ends up getting the shaft... Some of the models really trended south overnight...the NAM this morning was a fringe job for even my area. Heaviest precip was well south in MD/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Some of the models really trended south overnight...the NAM this morning was a fringe job for even my area. Heaviest precip was well south in MD/VA. That works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Some of the models really trended south overnight...the NAM this morning was a fringe job for even my area. Heaviest precip was well south in MD/VA. Just like winter. Hook you in and give you hope and then, boom. Fringe job. Let's hope, as in winter, they trend back north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 I hope some interviews the harbor master will that recorded the 149mph sustained winds with guest to 179mph from his ship’s instrument. This has to be the best verifiable high end CAT 4 ever and I suspect it will be upgraded on analysis. As soon as it started RI at the rate o f Wilma I knew she would be special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Travel spot weather update. Sunny and 88 in downtown Palmyra. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I hope some interviews the harbor master will that recorded the 149mph sustained winds with guest to 179mph from his ship’s instrument. This has to be the best verifiable high end CAT 4 ever and I suspect it will be upgraded on analysis. As soon as it started RI at the rate o f Wilma I knew she would be special . Strongest America storm ever, if verified. Which it basically has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Holy hell Euro.... Indeed, feeling like the heart of winter tracking with substantial model divergence inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Just now, Jonesy56 said: Holy hell Euro.... Indeed, feeling like the heart of winter tracking with substantial model divergence inside of 48 hours. 10.6 at MDT? Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 CTP's 2 pm forecast discussion on Ida's rain ... Quote The remnants of Ida will interact with a stalled frontal boundary as it progresses to the northeast, bringing ample moisture to the region. Model guidance continues to increase QPF amounts and bring greater QPF amounts more northward. However, the greatest QPF amounts will still remain in the southern half of Pennsylvania. The NAM, GFS, and Euro are in good agreement with the placement and amounts of QPF. The southern tier may receive 4 to 6 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. Central Pennsylvania will likely receive 2 to 4 inches of rain. Further north, totals are about an inch. Flash Flood Watch is in effect Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for most of Pennsylvania except for the northern counties. Turn around don`t drown. By Thursday afternoon, Ida moisture will be leaving the region and high pressure will be build in behind. All rain should end by late Thursday afternoon and early Thursday evening. The late-week air mass will be cooler and dry. Friday and Saturday will be clear with seasonable temperatures and low humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 26 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said: Holy hell Euro.... Indeed, feeling like the heart of winter tracking with substantial model divergence inside of 48 hours. If that was a QPF map for snow, Blizzard of 93 wouldn't sleep until Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Travel spot weather update. Sunny and 88 in downtown Palmyra. Sunny and 88 here as well. Storm just slid by to my SW a little bit ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 Just hit 90 once again. (43rd time this season) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Storms starting to fire up, whoever gets hit will make Tuesday worst if euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Icon stalls the low. Life threatening out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Icon stalls the low. Life threatening out this way. Gut tells me this trends south and heaviest runs northern MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Gut tells me this trends south and heaviest runs northern MD. TT does not have soundings availability for the Icon but the stall scenario, whether for us or south, is a huge deal if it happened. That is Lee/Agnes territory then. The only way my place gets into an actual flood is if something comes over the mountain (not impossible per some info I read) but my basement will not like double digit rain. The flood possibility here is the lake at Fort Ritchie. Apparently there is a scenario where that lake could flood my house in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Gut tells me this trends south and heaviest runs northern MD. I tend to agree, I think most here see 1.5-4" from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 30, 2021 Author Share Posted August 30, 2021 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Icon stalls the low. Life threatening out this way. 14 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Gut tells me this trends south and heaviest runs northern MD. Horst mentioned that he felt impacts would not be that significant due to the very fast movement of the low, so the Icon solution is interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: TT does not have soundings availability for the Icon but the stall scenario, whether for us or south, is a huge deal if it happened. That is Lee/Agnes territory then. The only way my place gets into an actual flood is if something comes over the mountain (not impossible per some info I read) but my basement will not like double digit rain. The flood possibility here is the lake at Fort Ritchie. Apparently there is a scenario where that lake could flood my house in PA. Lake Royer lol. My dad worked at Richie and Site R for many years and was one of the last to leave. Back in the 90’s the lake was stocked with fish and family members were allowed to get into the base. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst mentioned that he felt impacts would not be that significant due to the very fast movement of the low, so the Icon solution is interesting to say the least. Yea, not a forecast at all but not every day a 12-20" qpf map shows up. Cannot tell which shadow of yellow we are actually under and no soundings make it a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Lake Royer lol. My dad worked at Richie and Site R for many years and was one of the last to leave. Back in the 90’s the lake was stocked with fish and family members were allowed to get into the base. Good times Not sure if it is still stocked but there are a ton of fish there. During summer weekends there are lots of boats on the main lake. They are starting to open stores in the barracks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Jonesy56 said: Holy hell Euro.... Indeed, feeling like the heart of winter tracking with substantial model divergence inside of 48 hours. jesus lol...we got 10 inches from Lee over the span of 5 days in 2011...that would be Lee's amount but in less than half the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst mentioned that he felt impacts would not be that significant due to the very fast movement of the low, so the Icon solution is interesting to say the least. One thing I will add to this since there are 3 or more models showing double digits totals in PA....those models have the low taking about 24 hours to traverse the general area. Not a stall like the Icon but still fairly slow moving. So the fast moving theory is still open for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: One thing I will add to this since there are 3 or more models showing double digits totals in PA....those models have the low taking about 24 hours to traverse the general area. Not a stall like the Icon but still fairly slow moving. So the fast moving theory is still open for discussion. I’m more wish casting the rain to miss. I can handle 2-4” of rain but 6” or more would really damage the courses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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