Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Latest WPC map almost doubles these numbers. If my eyes are correct, we are in the 7-10” range. I hope not Talk about a south central jackpot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 22 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Latest WPC map almost doubles these numbers. If my eyes are correct, we are in the 7-10” range. I hope not Send it my way. I'll gladly take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Getting Lee vibes with all that rain. Damn. We got 10 inches from Lee. This isn't that far from it if it rains that much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 57 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Latest WPC map almost doubles these numbers. If my eyes are correct, we are in the 7-10” range. I hope not Have to convert from Golf to Water Polo. I think someone is going to get that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Congrats Rouzerville! Those of you mowing twice a week will need to strategically plan out your activities to get that in :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Have to convert from Golf to Water Polo. I think someone is going to get that much. Remember when parts of our area were under a drought . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 River flooding potential already up Question is will there be significant training possible where a few isolated areas get 10-15” in 12 hours and cause a repeat of swatera with Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Remember when parts of our area were under a drought . We we officially in drought two weeks ago. It was lifted this week after the 2" from Fred and then last week was the wettest week LSV wide in a long time. I know a lot of the Capital area missed out and other small areas like around Cash but lots of people booked 3-7 inches over the last 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 We we officially in drought two weeks ago. It was lifted this week after the 2" from Fred and then last week was the wettest week LSV wide in a long time. I know a lot of the Capital area missed out and other small areas like around Cash but lots of people booked 3-7 inches over the last 7 days. A few weeks ago in camp hill we had a 7” rain week. It’s been swampy since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I know there is a trough that forms, but why are we a jackpot for rain? Is it cause that trough prevents the system from moving once it gets here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Lee.. Elizabethtown and Pine Grove were around 15" ...Agnes like totals I lived in New Cumberland then and I will always remember how thick the rain was and how every road was under a foot of water just do the intensity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: A few weeks ago in camp hill we had a 7” rain week. It’s been swampy since . Yea, good thing they did not get it again this week. I think parts of Lanco are close to 10" for this week but going off memory on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I know there is a trough that forms, but why are we a jackpot for rain? Is it cause that trough prevents the system from moving once it gets here?Just pray we don’t get a wind event anytime soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: Just pray we don’t get a wind event anytime soon after . That is a nightly prayer I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Yea, good thing they did not get it again this week. I think parts of Lanco are close to 10" for this week but going off memory on that. People on NY board were talking about a signal for a PRE. I believe we had that with LEE. CTP seems very confident this is setting up to be a classic crush job with easterly flow, tropical moisture, and trough setting up right over is for enhancement and training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 IDA looks to me likes it could be getting ready to take her turn "toward us" as it starts to head more North and eventually North East....will see how much of NOLA/Suburbs gets into the eye wall area. Only west side at this point is up for possible it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Most guidance have heavy rain chances of 36 hours duration . Tuesday evening through Thursday amDespite the last year or two this area has been a damn near rainforest for the last 20 years with 85% of them above average . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 So no drought thread anytime soonThe way things go here we will average out by bringing back the dust bowl era in a few years . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: So no drought thread anytime soon My neighbor (farm) got about $400K in drought relief last summer so he took the whole thread to the bank. He lost his whole crop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Hopefully that covered most of the losses Not sure how much he makes in a year. I always joke with him and say I got screwed having to pay for his crop since it was Trump bucks that paid for it. That is how I got to know the hydrologist based out of Hagerstown...when he was up here doing property surveys. Speaking of USGS, here are the current PA stream levels. We have gone back up to the normal area. Lots of much above in Eastern LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hopefully that covered most of the losses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k crushes NO So does the HRRR...especially west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: People on NY board were talking about a signal for a PRE. I believe we had that with LEE. CTP seems very confident this is setting up to be a classic crush job with easterly flow, tropical moisture, and trough setting up right over is for enhancement and training . And yet, my point&click forecast for Wednesday went from rain likely, heavy at times, this morning, to showers likely with no mention of heavy this evening. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 And yet, my point&click forecast for Wednesday went from rain likely, heavy at times, this morning, to showers likely with no mention of heavy this evening. . I wouldn’t trust a point n click for anything, especially without a huge wording change in AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/18/6/jhm-d-16-0195_1.xml. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Ida definitely represents a pretty significant flooding threat for the area, especially for the southern half of PA. Talking big picture of our region as a whole, we’ve been fairly wet as of late.. with the remnants of Fred being the big recent rain event. We’re not saturated, but flash flood and headwater guidance are such that a 3-6”+ type event would likely send tributaries to moderate or major flood categories. For example, here’s today’s headwater guidance in CTP region. So this shows the estimated rainfall to reach each category (minor, moderate, major) at 1hr, 3hr, 6hr, and 12hr timeframes. The Swatara at Harper Tavern for example would need about 5” in 12hrs to reach major flood stage.. definitely doable with the numbers the models are cranking out. Big key as always, track of what will be probably either a depression or remnant low once it gets to us. Track of the low just underneath PA in this setup puts at least some part of our region into where what’s left of the core tracks through, and that’s where the business end of this potential major rainfall and flooding will be at. Given how organized this hurricane was (and still is), it’s likely to maintain a notable core remnant. That is where within the overall event you could see say 2-4”+ in under 6hrs, which would deal major issues on small and some bigger tributaries. As far as the main stem Susquehanna, its going to depend on the location of the swath of excessive rainfall. If it targets southern half of PA like the Euro does, it doesn’t quite get the whole basin and might not deal much more than minor flooding on the lower end of the Susquehanna main stem. If it tracks more like the GFS seems to have today, which catches more of northern PA and all the West Branch and Juniata basins.. response on the main stem would likely be more significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 It's amateur hour over on the main IDA thread. Seeing posts saying 'I was not expecting" or "It's going to do this" from people who not qualified to be making definitive statements about anything of this magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It's amateur hour over on the main IDA thread. Seeing posts saying 'I was not expecting" or "It's going to do this" from people who not qualified to be making definitive statements about anything of this magnitude. lmao yeah i saw this on other boards. people were like WOW I WASNT EXPECTING THIS!! despite the fact NHC had this getting to 140mph the day before. there was just a ton of people downplaying it or thinking they somehow knew it wouldn't get powerful lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Ida made landfall around 6 hours ago is still a 130 mph storm. Swampland does nothing to a storm. It has slowed down so much those small shrimping communities are going to be wiped off the map and part of the Gulf. NOLA is in for a world of wind damage itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Lee.. Elizabethtown and Pine Grove were around 15" ...Agnes like totals Yep - I actually received 15.11" from Lee (I'm 5 miles south of Elizabethtown) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now