Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: The GFS and CMC show some crazy stuff sometimes, but I no longer see them as inferior. Definitely not. At least not in terms of patterns and big picture stuff. If the GFS was the ONLY model we would be in trouble with localized rain totals and coverage. Big trouble! I like that the Euro tends to slowly change vs. jump like the others but otherwise I see no real advantage on LR stuff. I know the Euro scores the highest of them all, with the Ukie second, when it comes to front placement on the day of the event but unsure where they score it from re: 3 days out or -5 days out, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Definitely not. At least not in terms of patterns and big picture stuff. If the GFS was the ONLY model we would be in trouble with localized rain totals and coverage. Big trouble! I like that the Euro tends to slowly change vs. jump like the others but otherwise I see no real advantage on LR stuff. I know the Euro scores the highest of them all, with the Ukie second, when it comes to front placement on the day of the event but unsure where they score it from re: 3 days out or -5 days out, etc... RE: this point, yes it’s weird when the GFS shows a high of 50 on D10 one run and 80 the next, but to me that just goes to show the practical limits we as a human race have on weather forecasting. The uncertainty is part of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: RE: this point, yes it’s weird when the GFS shows a high of 50 on D10 one run and 80 the next, but to me that just goes to show the practical limits we as a human race have on weather forecasting. The uncertainty is part of the fun. Great point. If we were just watching the Euro, the PBP's could be really boring. The GFS gives up more of a roller coaster affair. Ha. 90 today at KPIT? HRRR says its in the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Great point. If we were just watching the Euro, the PBP's could be really boring. The GFS gives up more of a roller coaster affair. Ha. 90 today at KPIT? HRRR says its in the bag. One other point here: is it that far-fetched to believe that there could conceivably come a day hundreds or thousands of years from now when weather forecasting could advance to the point where they could say something like “you’ll get exactly 5.3 inches of snow a week from now and not a tenth more or less” and be completely accurate every time? That would be good news for the general public but would suck a lot of the fun out of this hobby for people like us. As for KPIT hitting 90 today, I hope it doesn’t, but I kind of have to hope it does so I don’t eat crow back on my home thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 And it's Monday....Up at 5:00am and its 70 degrees, Hi 93 today with real feel hitting 100...Yuck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: One other point here: is it that far-fetched to believe that there could conceivably come a day hundreds or thousands of years from now when weather forecasting could advance to the point where they could say something like “you’ll get exactly 5.3 inches of snow a week from now and not a tenth more or less” and be completely accurate every time? That would be good news for the general public but would suck a lot of the fun out of this hobby for people like us. As for KPIT hitting 90 today, I hope it doesn’t, but I kind of have to hope it does so I don’t eat crow back on my home thread. Your theory would also suck for all vacation spots. Especially on the MA and NE coast where they have a 4-6 month window. They are going to be full every weekend regardless of weather but if a model could have forecasted the Memorial Day debacle for the beaches, their bookings would have probably been less than ideal. Maybe they get filled up with introverts and such? LOL. I saw your home thread convo. If KPIT does not get 90 but KTIM does, would that could as victory? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Your theory would also suck for all vacation spots. Especially on the MA and NE coast where they have a 4-6 month window. They are going to be full every weekend regardless of weather but if a model could have forecasted the Memorial Day debacle for the beaches, their bookings would have probably been less than ideal. Maybe they get filled up with introverts and such? LOL. I saw your home thread convo. If KPIT does not get 90 but KTIM does, would that could as victory? :-) Haven’t invested in my weather station just yet, so I won’t know if my backyard hits 90 today. I realize that there are plenty of people that get irked by getting 89’d but it’s not like there’s some sort of curse that prevents us from getting to 90. But I hate getting 33’d in May or October so I understand the feeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Haven’t invested in my weather station just yet, so I won’t know if my backyard hits 90 today. I realize that there are plenty of people that get irked by getting 89’d but it’s not like there’s some sort of curse that prevents us from getting to 90. But I hate getting 33’d in May or October so I understand the feeling. I don't know about you but for me when its 89 out I feel like its a nice day but once it hits 90 the sweat starts rolling! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I don't know about you but for me when its 89 out I feel like its a nice day but once it hits 90 the sweat starts rolling! That said, PBZ isn’t buying the HRRR mid-90s hype. They actually adjusted their p&c at the airport DOWN to 88 for both today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: That said, PBZ isn’t buying the HRRR mid-90s hype. They actually adjusted their p&c at the airport DOWN to 88 for both today and tomorrow. If this was MDT/LSV I would definitely go with the HRRR but with the lack of real weather today, the KPIT temp is the big news and thing to watch. I hope it makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If this was MDT/LSV I would definitely go with the HRRR but with the lack of real weather today, the KPIT temp is the big news and thing to watch. I hope it makes it. The wildcard is cloud cover, and I feel like the HRRR underdoes that sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 That hot tag for this thread is literally appropriate today. It's 9:30am and I'm already up to 81 in my backyard, and 84 here in Sunbury where I'm delivering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: That hot tag for this thread is literally appropriate today. It's 9:30am and I'm already up to 81 in my backyard, and 84 here in Sunbury where I'm delivering. We are pulling the whole forum through the summer months. If Randy sold ads we would be getting kick backs. If I have a chance this afternoon I am going to Wunderground a bit and expect to see some triple digit readings if cloud cover stays limited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Taking the 12Z Nam verbatim, MDT could have a Heat Advisory tomorrow. Borderline call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 55 minutes ago, TimB84 said: The wildcard is cloud cover, and I feel like the HRRR underdoes that sometimes. 3K Nam does not get you there but 3K's temps are almost always a few degrees under reality when I have done spot checks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 3K Nam does not get you there but 3K's temps are almost always a few degrees under reality when I have done spot checks. Doing quality control for the models is a dirty job, but someone’s gotta do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Doing quality control for the models is a dirty job, but someone’s gotta do it. While my WFH role has been fairly steady its not been dramatic recently so I enjoy checking from time to time. I am the group Naminista in the winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: While my WFH role has been fairly steady its not been dramatic recently so I enjoy checking from time to time. I am the group Naminista in the winter months. I’m in the same boat, though my WFH job is approaching it’s busiest season now so I won’t have as much time to look at the models soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: I’m in the same boat, though my WFH job is approaching it’s busiest season now so I won’t have as much time to look at the models soon. Well then may you have two straight days over 90 so that monkey is off your back. Ha. When you get busy who is going to be here to grind these runs each time? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: We are pulling the whole forum through the summer months. If Randy sold ads we would be getting kick backs. If I have a chance this afternoon I am going to Wunderground a bit and expect to see some triple digit readings if cloud cover stays limited. My sig links to my Ambient Weather page, but I'm also on Wunderground, so be sure to check out my station as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: My sig links to my Ambient Weather page, but I'm also on Wunderground, so be sure to check out my station as well. Already done. Here is a snip of my desktop with yours and Cash there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Already done. Here is a snip of my desktop with yours and Cash there. Awesome! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Awesome! Thanks! You are 3.4 degrees higher than yesterday at this time :-). That is a great feature. You will probably be at 90 before lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 Time for a cold wave! 2 months until September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: You are 3.4 degrees higher than yesterday at this time :-). That is a great feature. You will probably be at 90 before lunch. Quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Time for a cold wave! 2 months until September. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted June 28, 2021 Author Share Posted June 28, 2021 88 and sunny - temp is running just about one degree ahead of yesterday here. Fewer clouds (slightly) in the sky than this time yesterday. Thinking 95 or so is a good call...we'll see soon enough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 I just hit 90 at work. bright and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted June 28, 2021 Share Posted June 28, 2021 85 here at noon. Feels hotter in the sun. First Wunderground of the day. Plenty of 90's around already. Pitt local stations most 88-89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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