Jns2183 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Should I not camp in the far north east of PA Sunday and Monday. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm rooting for a last minute shift west for sure . I'm fine with a couple wraparound downpours but a 2-4" or 3-5" event would be fun to track I think those qpf totals are crazy for the Hrrr. Scary. I would double the totals from the Hrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Should I not camp in the far north east of PA Sunday and Monday. . Might be wet and wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 21 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm rooting for a last minute shift west for sure . I'm fine with a couple wraparound downpours but a 2-4" or 3-5" event would be fun to track Oh boy. You bet it would! it would also make for an interesting ride from Tamaqua to Tower City to Sunbury Monday morning. Perhaps a soggy, wet Pillow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 7 hours ago, Voyager said: Oh boy. You bet it would! it would also make for an interesting ride from Tamaqua to Tower City to Sunbury Monday morning. Perhaps a soggy, wet Pillow? Even Mike Lindell wouldn't be able to wring out a soggy Pillow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 45 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Even Mike Lindell wouldn't be able to wring out a soggy Pillow. But he would have all the data showing who had hacked HRRR. Unfortunately only he and The Sleestack can read the data so you will just have to trust him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 A surprising 62 this Am. Watching Henri so much I forgot to to watch temps in the back yard. Humid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: A surprising 62 this Am. Watching Henri so much I forgot to to watch temps in the back yard. Humid though. My low was 66.4 this morning. If it was 0.2 degrees warmer it would have been hell outside...lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Well this is a kick in the nuts this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 @Voyager most of us don’t need more heavy rain at this time after the storms from a few days ago. @Bubbler86 might disagree, but otherwise I am good with missing more heavy rain this time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 I almost spit out my morning coffee when I just read in the Tropical Storm Henri New England thread this post from our old friend Eskimo Joe. “Yup. Lots of early "storm cancel" posts here in this thread.” He is the king of early storm cancel every year….unbelievable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 @paweather In the Winter, a Henri like storm that bullseyes Eastern PA, NYC and SNE would be devastating. I am good with it happening now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @Voyager most of us don’t need more heavy rain at this time after the storms from a few days ago. @Bubbler86 might disagree, but otherwise I am good with missing more heavy rain this time! I was more following the model madness vs. Begging on the rain. Do not want anyone's basement to flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I almost spit out my morning coffee when I just read in the Tropical Storm Henri New England thread this post from our old friend Eskimo Joe. “Yup. Lots of early "storm cancel" posts here in this thread.” He is the king of early storm cancel every year….unbelievable! And he was the "man" for my first back in PA snowstorm in NOV of '18. He called it while others were poo poo. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 56 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And he was the "man" for my first back in PA snowstorm in NOV of '18. He called it while others were poo poo. Lol He famously canceled the January 2016 blizzard on here 3 days before the storm because of 1 off run of the Euro that showed “only” a foot of snow instead of 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: He famously canceled the January 2016 blizzard on here 3 days before the storm because of 1 off run of the Euro that showed “only” a foot of snow instead of 2 feet! He Is a heat meister so he has mixed feelings about it. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 EJ is also incredibly smart and knows what he's talking about- I think the thing about him is, he is a true weenie at heart that likes "big game" weather. If he gets a sense that the threat of a big game is diminishing, he moves on. Sometimes he might end up looking foolish but way more often he's on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: EJ is also incredibly smart and knows what he's talking about- I think the thing about him is, he is a true weenie at heart that likes "big game" weather. If he gets a sense that the threat of a big game is diminishing, he moves on. Sometimes he might end up looking foolish but way more often he's on to something. He is smart and is very knowledgeable. I was just amused with his warning others of being too early with canceling the storm, when that is his specialty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The HRRR still giving parts of LSV a thumping. Waynesboro just picked up 3/4"" of rain in 40 min. Rain Forest tropical downpour. Nothing in the 'Ville so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR still giving parts of LSV a thumping. Waynesboro just picked up 1 1/4" of rain in 40 min. Rain Forest tropical downpour. Nothing in the 'Ville so far. I was just going to post this. The HRRR has been pretty consistent with bringing Henri into Eastern PA. I'd get 5-6 inches of rain out of it if it verified as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: I was just going to post this. The HRRR has been pretty consistent with bringing Henri into Eastern PA. I'd get 5-6 inches of rain out of it if it verified as depicted. Yea and I keep posting it because 1) The Hrrr usually does not show qpf in that amounts. 2) It will not let go of the low coming in so far south and west them looping back over PA. I know better than to try and forecast this myself but still something to keep an eye on. And with tropical systems the model qpf's are frequently low in the areas that end up with the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea and I keep posting it because 1) The Hrrr usually does not show qpf in that amounts. 2) It will not let go of the low coming in so far south and west them looping back over PA. I know better than to try and forecast this myself but still something to keep an eye on. And with tropical systems the model qpf's are frequently low in the areas that end up with the most. True, and tropical systems don't always follow the GFS/NAM/EURO depictions. There always seems to be a surprise or two in how it eventually plays out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 48 minutes ago, Voyager said: True, and tropical systems don't always follow the GFS/NAM/EURO depictions. There always seems to be a surprise or two in how it eventually plays out. Even if it does not loop as far west as the HRRR is predicting, I bet there are some 2-4" totals in this area of PA as the moisture streams back upon the trough....loop back and we go 6-10" lollipops and expanding the zone up into NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Henri looks so disorganized right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Henri looks so disorganized right now. IMO, that is good if you want rain in Pallemschteddel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: IMO, that is good if you want rain in Pallemschteddel. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Just now, paweather said: We shall see. 18Z HRRR continues to be a drought ender (for those in drought). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z HRRR continues to be a drought ender (for those in drought). And on another note. Someone put this out there: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: And on another note. Someone put this out there: I saw that. This might be a good winter to spend some time with my mom. Maybe for 2-3 months...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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