Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: WOW, That would hammer us. It loops around 2-3 times and keeps coming back to visit your house. Agnes anyone? I could see 15" totals with that type of scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It loops around 2-3 times and keeps coming back to visit your house. Agnes anyone? I could see 15"" totals with that type of scenario. Craziness and yes, Agnes for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Hidden messages in any of my posts? Never! So when you say Haskins is your guy, you really mean it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have been discussing that this AM. Eastern Pa is definitely "in play" for flooding rains right now. May not transpire but would not be a total surprise. The QPF map you posted is an extreme surprise though. LOL. The SNE thread is doing all they can to ignore it. Just like winter, when the models start to go sour you have to pretend you’re not seeing it. Until it shows up on several runs, and several models. Could this be the start of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It loops around 2-3 times and keeps coming back to visit your house. Agnes anyone? I could see 15"" totals with that type of scenario. 15" equates to how much snow? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Craziness and yes, Agnes for sure. That is how we roll here. We have gone from planning picnics and hikes during a dry weekend to Agnes references. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, paweather said: 15" equates to how much snow? LOL. Kuch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Kuch? Kuch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It loops around 2-3 times and keeps coming back to visit your house. Agnes anyone? I could see 15"" totals with that type of scenario. 15" is the number here from September 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: So when you say Haskins is your guy, you really mean it? That might be a bridge too far. Haskins is 100% my guy in 2021 if Ben gets hurt. Mason Rudolph is a high floor, low ceiling quarterback. Neither is the permanent solution IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Just like winter, when the models start to go sour you have to pretend you’re not seeing it. Until it shows up on several runs, and several models. Could this be the start of that? Not sure but the GFS is king there right now. The RGEM depiction would be a non event for most of them...maybe some surge. No one is talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: 15" is the number here from September 2011... So I guess this could be happy 10th anniversary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: So I guess this could be happy 10th anniversary? 15" on top of what we just received will many many unhappy along waterways. But yeah...it would be something to remember I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12z GFS is still further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 I don't see this coming much more west than, say, Providence, RI. Also, the pavement is warm and the sun angle is a killer for accumulations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Not saying I’m buying what the 3k NAM is selling, but that is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: I don't see this coming much more west than, say, Providence, RI. Also, the pavement is warm and the sun angle is a killer for accumulations. D$mn sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Not saying I’m buying what the 3k NAM is selling, but that is a monster. A tight Cat 4. RI would lead to the end of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 15" is the number here from September 2011... My four-day total from Lee was 13.59", nine of which fell on one day. We really were in the jackpot for that event, not sure we'll see something like it again, at least not for our specific locale. Here is what I had in my notes for that period...... The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee combined with a stalled frontal boundary to make for a historic rainfall event over central PA. Our local area was hit the hardest with 13.59 inches total over a four day span, 9 of which occurred on Wednesday and resulted in epic flash flooding. Creeks like Swatara and Chickies massively overflowed their banks and hit record height levels. Multiple homes along Chickies were flooded and multiple bridges badly damaged, including one covered bridge being washed away entirely. Susquehanna crested at near record levels. The worst flooding I have ever seen in our area, and probably the worst since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. See link below. Also, for those who want to relive it, here is a fantastic summary write-up from NWS........ 4th Anniversary of the Flooding from Tropical Storm Lee (weather.gov) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 7 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Not saying I’m buying what the 3k NAM is selling, but that is a monster. NYC gets destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: NYC gets destroyed. Yeah, but take that with a grain of salt. That model is known for doing that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Yeah, but take that with a grain of salt. That model is known for doing that. Yep. Still looks like the further north track is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yep. Still looks like the further north track is the way to go. Track is one thing but that storm on the 3K would have an incredible amount of pent up energy in the storm surge even though it would be down to a high end Cat two at landing. It very well may cut LI in half with surge. Not going to happen but still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Biggest Run of the Century coming up on the EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Biggest Run of the Century coming up on the EURO. The Euro is being bashed pretty badly as it has been very, very bad with Henri. Just not it's cup of tea. The Hey Mon Hurricane Model continues the West Trend and brings it into Central NJ. Cat 1. Was into LI at 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Euro is being bashed pretty badly as it has been very, very bad with Henri. Just not it's cup of tea. The Hey Mon Hurricane Model continues the West Trend and brings it into Central NJ. Cat 1. Was into LI at 6Z. What is the Hey Mon Hurricane model never heard of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: What is the Hey Mon Hurricane model never heard of it? On TT go to Hurricane, HMON then pick the storm (Henri). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 31 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: My four-day total from Lee was 13.59", nine of which fell on one day. We really were in the jackpot for that event, not sure we'll see something like it again, at least not for our specific locale. Here is what I had in my notes for that period...... The remnants of Tropical Storm Lee combined with a stalled frontal boundary to make for a historic rainfall event over central PA. Our local area was hit the hardest with 13.59 inches total over a four day span, 9 of which occurred on Wednesday and resulted in epic flash flooding. Creeks like Swatara and Chickies massively overflowed their banks and hit record height levels. Multiple homes along Chickies were flooded and multiple bridges badly damaged, including one covered bridge being washed away entirely. Susquehanna crested at near record levels. The worst flooding I have ever seen in our area, and probably the worst since Hurricane Agnes in 1972. See link below. Also, for those who want to relive it, here is a fantastic summary write-up from NWS........ 4th Anniversary of the Flooding from Tropical Storm Lee (weather.gov) 15.11" to be exact in my gauge from Lee. Wednesday was my birthday, went out for dinner with my wife and didn't make it home that night. I had 10.62" fell here on that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I think anyone from OC, MD up to SNE should be on high alert. Several models are now bringing it into SNJ or CNJ. I remember Hurricane Charley, in 2004, was modeled and "destined" to send Tampa Bay back to the stone ages and over a matter of 4 hours, he said "Yoink" and took a hard right and destroyed Punta Gorda. I rode Charly out in Myrtle Beach. Good stuff 52 minutes ago, paweather said: WOW, That would hammer us. Yuck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: On TT go to Hurricane, HMON then pick the storm (Henri). Gotcha! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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