Newman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 18z 3k NAM not backing down, in fact it increased the already impressive bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values from it's previous run. And my God, SCP of 20.2 and STP of 6.2. I know the NAM is notorious for overhyping these types of things, but look no further than what we're seeing in the SE today for what could be instore for us tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Paw Paw to Pillow should be on the watch for this possibility. Yep. I am thinking the same. Nothing for Palmyra although CTP thinks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yep. I am thinking the same. Nothing for Palmyra although CTP thinks so. That line would strafe Palmyra as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: That line would strafe Palmyra as well. Yeah it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Yeah it would. I think for the Eastern 1/2 or maybe Eastern 2/3 of the state, the flood watch is for torrential downpours with convective lines vs. being in the way of Fred's actual shield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I think for the Eastern 1/2 or maybe Eastern 2/3 of the state, the flood watch is for torrential downpours with convective lines vs. being in the way of Fred's actual shield. I think even I'm too east for anything from Fred. I'll prob have to get rain from the afternoon line, and that's hit/miss as always (though likely a hit as it looks solid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, canderson said: I think even I'm too east for anything from Fred. I'll prob have to get rain from the afternoon line, and that's hit/miss as always (though likely a hit as it looks solid) I keep trying to watch my words as technically the Pwats and moisture that will be conducive to what could be multiple afternoon lines of storms really is 'Fred Related' so I keep saying Fred's shield. And except for the initial punch that hits the LSV first thing tomorrow, the shield gets no where near anyone in the eastern half of the state, until in the Northern areas, on most prog's right now. Fred still shows that stop and jump east look up there but much later than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I keep trying to watch my words as technically the Pwats and moisture that will be conducive to what could be multiple afternoon lines of storms really is 'Fred Related' so I keep saying Fred's shield. And except for the initial punch that hits the LSV first thing tomorrow, the shield gets no where near anyone in the eastern half of the state, until in the Northern areas, on most prog's right now. Fred still shows that stop and jump east look up there but much later than yesterday. I’m making a prediction that either Adams or Franklin counties score a tornado warning tomorrow. I remember in tropical events over the years where storms with rotation like to run the south mountain ridge up from Frederick County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’m making a prediction that either Adams or Franklin counties score a tornado warning tomorrow. I remember in tropical events over the years where storms with rotation like to run the south mountain ridge up from Frederick County. All in from Cashtown. But I just want rain (only 1/3" so far the last few days) so make it Adams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: All in from Cashtown. But I just want rain (only 1/3" so far the last few days) so make it Adams. I just want rain myself. Managed 0.42” at Adams course. Rooting for at least 1” tomorrow. Amazing the difference in how green it is in the the Dover / Manchester area of York county compared to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I just want rain myself. Managed 0.42” at Adams course. Rooting for at least 1” tomorrow. Amazing the difference in how green it is in the the Dover / Manchester area of York county compared to our area. Yea, that is the mow twice a week area. The yards in our areas are damaged for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Precursor for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Precursor for tomorrow? Good catch. The put a HWO out for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Good catch. The put a HWO out for it. #wedgechase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Good catch. The put a HWO out for it. Franklin PA- 655 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Franklin County through 730 PM EDT... At 655 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Greencastle, moving northeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Chambersburg, Greencastle, St. Thomas, Marion, Claylick, Williamson and Upton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, that is the mow twice a week area. The yards in our areas are damaged for years. Don’t worry, you and Cashtown will jackpot in the Winter and hopefully revive your grass in time for next Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 11 hours ago, pasnownut said: For some of us the takeaway is that summer is on its last legs, no matter what heat wave may be showing up. Whatever the heat, the days are shortening, and nights are starting to cool a bit (although sticky still seems to be haning tough). I'm down w/ whatever summer has left. I'll deal like I've been, and just roll w/ it. My time is coming..... Exactly! This is well said good sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm working on getting Mike Trout to post here. He is a huge weather weenie. I would welcome him on here as another huge Eagles fan! Lol… Also, I suppose that it would be extremely cool to have a future Hall of Fame player posting on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Don’t worry, you and Cashtown will jackpot in the Winter and hopefully revive your grass in time for next Spring. Thanks but the dirt spots will unfortunately stick around for a bit unless I plant more seed and even that will take a summer to catch on. Canderson is shaking his fist and rum and coke at me right now and yelling clover. But we did have a lot of snow this winter. Helped avoid any well issues this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I have a inking that we may have our most tornadic day of the year tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I should be able to make some obs and discussion as this unfolds tonight and tomorrow. Since I literally sat on the edge of the precip with Isaias pretty close to this time last summer, it’s been awhile since I’ve had a decent tropical remnant event come right through here. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Nam 3k is really emphasizing the overnight rains for the lsv. Some areas near an inch before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 A moderate rain shower just moved through here in Marysville that lasted for about 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Where the most shear and CAPE overlap... Leads to parameters like this: And ultimately the chance for something like this: I would never call for tornados, that's something you simply can't do. Look at that severe event a few weeks ago that looked great for tornados: it ended up missing our area but smacked the Jersey and Philly area. Simply put, every CAM is pointing towards lots of shear and helicity with the remnants of Fred tomorrow. In the warm sector, discrete rotating cells are a real possibility. There were 13 tornado reports out of the SE today -> That's heading this way tomorrow (does it remain as potent or weaken?). Each NAM and HRRR run today kept to the idea of potential tornados tomorrow, the scariest part being the timing leaning towards dusk and overnight. In 24 hours we'll see if they had the right idea or not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: A moderate rain shower just moved through here in Marysville that lasted for about 20 minutes. Just the green getting greener! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Just the green getting greener! Lol. Lol…another heavy shower is moving through here now around 12:30 am. It doesn’t look like it should last too long according to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Its just been dumping rain here the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Its just been dumping rain here the past hour and its still dumping................................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 .36 for rain overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam 3k is really emphasizing the overnight rains for the lsv. Some areas near an inch before sunrise. This will verify for some of us. 0.99” in Fairfield 1.45” at house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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