Newman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 As of now, just a slight conditional 2% risk from the SPC, which I would agree with. It won't be a widespread event and is highly dependent on track among other factors too. But absolutely worth keeping an eye on, any time you have a tropical system (even a remnant one) track to your west, you have a shot of tornados. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 @Newman as always, great info. Thank you for posting! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Yes @Newman Great Info! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, Newman said: As of now, just a slight conditional 2% risk from the SPC, which I would agree with. It won't be a widespread event and is highly dependent on track among other factors too. But absolutely worth keeping an eye on, any time you have a tropical system (even a remnant one) track to your west, you have a shot of tornados. Excellent info Newman! It's funny you bring all that up about the tropical systems to the west and whatnot because I was having the same thoughts, how even if we are likely to miss out on the main slug of precipitation we'll be in a prime spot in the warm sector for some discrete severe potential. Certainly worth keeping an eye on. Excellent analysis with the Skews and Hodos, big double thumbs-up for you sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Thank you all! As a met student, I try my best to learn on my own and equally try to convey the information to the public in a detailed and scientific, yet clear and understanding way. I'm just here to help everyone stay informed, plus I love sharing info as well. Just as another note, there have been some tornado warnings down in the south this morning with "radar confirmed" tornado messages. Plus some confirmed tornados and damage across Georgia yesterday with Fred. We'll see if that all can or will make it's way up here tomorrow. Now to play devils advocate, its also very possible the primary low tracks too far east and many end up with 1. Just some moderate rains or 2. A brief period of rain and nothing after. In a time of the year when the weather seems to slow down and eyes turn towards the tropics, it's nice having something to watch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Ummmm I’m not seeing all this rain being forecast actually hitting the LSV. Am I looking at things incorrectly? It’s damn near sunny out now it’s so bright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Ummmm I’m not seeing all this rain being forecast actually hitting the LSV. Am I looking at things incorrectly? It’s damn near sunny out now it’s so bright. That's what I was talking about in my previous post. One to two inch forecast and near nothing on radar and broken cloud cover. I'm not seeing it, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: That's what I was talking about in my previous post. One to two inch forecast and near nothing on radar and broken cloud cover. I'm not seeing it, either. I was thinking tomorrow is the best possibility for widespread heavy rain. Did not see much modeled today. And if the recent trends are right it may not even be all that wide spread vs. a squall line like effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Here is Lebanon County Weather: Good Tuesday afternoon. Soaking rain is forthcoming for the region. Dew points are in the middle 70's and as a result the humidity values are at extreme levels. It will feel like you are in a tropical rain forest over the next few days. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into this evening and will continue into the overnight. Heavy rain can be expected in the strongest of cells. The set up we are in is text book for a very brief spin up (weak small tornado) to develop as well. We will be monitoring this closely. Wednesday looks to be a washout as the remains of Fred move over our region. Right now we think a nice soaking 1-2 inches of rain is likely across the county. The chance for a minor spin up is also on the table again as the remains of Fred move overhead. Thursday will remain unsettled and very humid with morning showers ending and then clearing by the mid afternoon. Temps will again rebound to either side of 80 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, canderson said: Ummmm I’m not seeing all this rain being forecast actually hitting the LSV. Am I looking at things incorrectly? It’s damn near sunny out now it’s so bright. any breaks in the clouds now are going to let the atmosphere destabilize some which the afd talked about for southern pa. see if anything pops by 2 or 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 he National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in central New York, Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan and Tioga. In northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike, Southern Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming. * From late tonight through Thursday morning. * Scattered heavy rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected out ahead of the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred early Wednesday morning. The remnants of Fred will push through Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Localized rainfall amounts over 5 inches will be possible and this would lead to flash flooding in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: any breaks in the clouds now are going to let the atmosphere destabilize some which the afd talked about for southern pa. see if anything pops by 2 or 3 It’s been sunny for 30 minutes. We’ll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, canderson said: It’s been sunny for 30 minutes. We’ll see! take a look just east of harrisburg over the last 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: take a look just east of harrisburg over the last 30 min Yep storms due south of me and coming this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 take a look just east of harrisburg over the last 30 minStarting blow up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 Partly sunny here at work, pouring at home. Wife says the gauge is changing numbers rapidly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Some lite rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, paweather said: Some lite rain here. Radar is telling me to look to tomorrow. EC has backed off its blocking/transfer scenario and now joined the other models in taking the SLP up into West Central PA. Totals below though for most in the LSV at over 1", a good 1/3 of that comes in the next 24 hours with random convection so general a 1" rainfall from Fred for many in the LSV with a dry slot in the S/E of the area. This does continue to leave the severe possibilities in play vs a simple tropical rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 CTP just hoisted a flash flood watch until Thursday for eveyrone west of a Lancaster-Pottstown-Montrose line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 hour ago, canderson said: CTP just hoisted a flash flood watch until Thursday for eveyrone west of a Lancaster-Pottstown-Montrose line. It's a little confusing in the verbiage but its actually for tomorrow @ 5AM through 2AM Thursday. Their verbiage says late tonight but the text says 5AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 hours ago, TimB84 said: Even so, 90 at a location where the normal is 84 on the date in question is hardly extreme. 12Z Euro is even less warm than the GFS for the 80's or low 90's period next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z Euro is even less warm than the GFS for the 80's or low 9's period next week. Fantasy GFS looked solid too. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect afternoon highs in the 60s with low humidity, but maybe we can start fading into fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Fantasy GFS looked solid too. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect afternoon highs in the 60s with low humidity, but maybe we can start fading into fall. I would shove an old lady down for a 64 degree high, no humidity day next week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Just now, canderson said: I would shove an old lady down for a 64 degree high, no humidity day next week. Just make sure no one’s looking, don’t want to be in jail and miss out on such a pleasant day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Fantasy GFS looked solid too. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect afternoon highs in the 60s with low humidity, but maybe we can start fading into fall. I am just trying to quell the heat wave talk as I do not see it modeled. Maybe someone is forecasting it which is good if so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 18Z HRRR continues trumpeting most of the front shield associated with Fred will be west of the LSV but the risk for more than one line of convection is very present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Good news - got a roofer over here to discover my leak is from a hole in a shingle (probaby from a falling tree branch). He's coming back at 7 a.m. tomorrow to fix, which should beat any real rain as it won't start until the afternoon most likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm working on getting Mike Trout to post here. He is a huge weather weenie. Tim Tebow seems to have freed up his schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Tomorrow should be interesting. Let's hope for some rain in the gauges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Tomorrow should be interesting. Let's hope for some rain in the gauges. Paw Paw to Pillow should be on the watch for this possibility. 3K also misses LSV with the rain shield but like he HRRR does bring a decent shot of rain through tomorrow just after dawn (more favoring Western 1/2 of LSV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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