Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah thats hard to bet against for sure, but even if 1/2 of what the GFS depicts verifies, many lawns across the state will approve, or come out of dormancy....lol (and sorry). I too have been lucky enough to get the rains JUST in the nick of time when my lawn was starting to stress. Been looking better every week for the last few (so much that I may put that fertilizer on this weekend). Been waiting for the dry period to look like its officially behind us. Me thinks that's the case. I agree that the chances of this turning into an extreme drought (for those under drought designations) is pretty slim. Cashtown's figures for Adams county are pretty bad though. He has a negative 4" departure over the last 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I agree that the chances of this turning into an extreme drought (for those under drought designations) is pretty slim. Cashtown's figures for Adams county are pretty bad though. He has a negative 4" departure over the last 30 days. Do you have the euro qpf map for the next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Do you have the euro qpf map for the next 3 days I'm not Bubbler but here ya go...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Do you have the euro qpf map for the next 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I'm not Bubbler but here ya go...... Or maybe you are bubbler since we both like stats and posted at the same exact time? AND we are both rain starved. Fred goes much farther East than the GFS (on the euro). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I'm not Bubbler but here ya go...... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Or maybe you are bubbler since we both like stats and posted at the same exact time? AND we are both rain starved. Fred goes much farther East than the GFS (on the euro). That doesn’t look bad. What’s that 6.7” up by Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 I'm back..like it or not. This will be an interesting week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: That doesn’t look bad. What’s that 6.7” up by Williamsport. It is very much dependent on Fred though. It's drought on if Fred slides down his dinosaur more to our west. That 8.4 up there is a 2 even without Fred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, paweather said: I'm back..like it or not. This will be an interesting week. How much for Palmyra? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: How much for Palmyra? LOL.....stinking dry slot I bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: LOL.....stinking dry slot I bet! Your boy the EC belts you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Your boy the EC belts you. Saw that we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 CTP not backing down tonight Latest model guidance continues to highlight the most widespread rain/heaviest amts should fall tonight, as a potent southerly LLJ lifts north across the region, overrunning the approaching sfc warm front. A serly llvl flow and nearly saturated sfc-500mb layer supports categorical POPs and efficient rainfall production over most of the area tonight, with the highest POPS along the spine of the Appalachians, where orographic forcing will be the greatest. Modest instability, combined with anomalously high and still increasing pwats and forcing at nose of low level jet, could result in embedded thunderstorms with torrential downpours tonight. The 00/12z HREF supports this potential, with some members indicating spot amounts in the 3-4 inch range across the southwest/scent part of the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday. Expect the focus of convection to shift into the central third of the CWA late tonight with passage of low level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: CTP not backing down tonight Latest model guidance continues to highlight the most widespread rain/heaviest amts should fall tonight, as a potent southerly LLJ lifts north across the region, overrunning the approaching sfc warm front. A serly llvl flow and nearly saturated sfc-500mb layer supports categorical POPs and efficient rainfall production over most of the area tonight, with the highest POPS along the spine of the Appalachians, where orographic forcing will be the greatest. Modest instability, combined with anomalously high and still increasing pwats and forcing at nose of low level jet, could result in embedded thunderstorms with torrential downpours tonight. The 00/12z HREF supports this potential, with some members indicating spot amounts in the 3-4 inch range across the southwest/scent part of the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday. Expect the focus of convection to shift into the central third of the CWA late tonight with passage of low level jet. They are not backing down that is a for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Or maybe you are bubbler since we both like stats and posted at the same exact time? AND we are both rain starved. Fred goes much farther East than the GFS (on the euro). Oh my, now you got me thinking......Bubbler is Snowman, Snowman is Bubbler! *for the Ace Ventura fans out there* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Oh my, now you got me thinking......Bubbler is Snowman, Snowman is Bubbler! *for the Ace Ventura fans out there* Laces Out :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 18Z HRRR looks like Fred is going to get to WV then block and move off to the east. Very winter storm like for stuff we have seen the last few years. 3K Nam still wants to make this a Pitt flooder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 18Z HRRR looks like Fred is going to get to WV then block and move off to the east. Very winter storm like for stuff we have seen the last few years. 3K Nam still wants to make this a Pitt flooder. Radar building to the south. Someone is getting wet tonight. I just need .50” at the course and I’ll be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: The 00/12z HREF supports this potential, with some members indicating spot amounts in the 3-4 inch range across the southwest/scent part of the forecast area by 12Z Tuesday. Expect the focus of convection to shift into the central third of the CWA late tonight with passage of low level jet. That should make you happy no? Sounds like you and bubbles are in short range crosshairs. sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That should make you happy no? Sounds like you and bubbles are in short range crosshairs. sure hope so. Models keep splitting qpf around me/to my west so I will take it if I can get it but not a foregone conclusion yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That should make you happy no? Sounds like you and bubbles are in short range crosshairs. sure hope so. Gotta take it when you can. Things could always change or trend the wrong way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Gotta take it when you can. Things could always change or trend the wrong way The the 3-5" WAA snow knowing the 12-24" 3 days later could fizzle :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The the 3-5" WAA snow knowing the 12-24" 3 days later could fizzle :-). As I’ve gotten older, I root for days of snow cover equally as much as enjoying the big 12”+ storm. Give me 2-4” snows and snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: As I’ve gotten older, I root for days of snow cover equally as much as enjoying the big 12”+ storm. Give me 2-4” snows and snowpack. No need to try and hope for days off school anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Dews have been rising nicely here 78/72 . A nice SE wind with high pwats. Radar actually looks intriguing for the m/d line crew . Mesoanalysis is slowly improving. Hopefully a couple downpours this evening . I'd be lying if I said it wasn't awesome working outside today . I think we see some deamplification of that line soon but you, I, Cash, etc...may still get the downpours first. The rain is what matters to me :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 16, 2021 Share Posted August 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: As I’ve gotten older, I root for days of snow cover equally as much as enjoying the big 12”+ storm. Give me 2-4” snows and snowpack. Preach it brotha..... days and days of white.....speaking of...were about 5-8 weeks away from hopefully seeing the first blues showing up on the models.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 4 hours ago, paweather said: LOL.....stinking dry slot I bet! Lol…You sound like @Voyager ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Preach it brotha..... days and days of white.....speaking of...were about 5-8 weeks away from hopefully seeing the first blues showing up on the models.... @paweather found some snow on the map up in Canada in July! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: As I’ve gotten older, I root for days of snow cover equally as much as enjoying the big 12”+ storm. Give me 2-4” snows and snowpack. Only 15 days of Met. Summer to go! I root for any and all snow whenever possible! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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