Central PA - Summer 2021

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I really dont start to get giddy until after labor day and even then its usually a couple weeks beyond. 

I can remember September heat waves sitting in high school (w/ NO AIR CONDITIONING)....OMG....how did I/we survive??

if we can pull off some back n forth for the next couple weeks, i'll consider that a win and just be ready to move on when the first cold front of the fall blows in.

 

Agree. 

[canderson]

Had breakfast on the back patio at Hershey Pantry. It was very pleasant at 10:30 but best is starting to crank as humidity builds. Next week looks awful. 

[Bubbler86]

Was just outside for 30 min and as long as not in the sun it was a treat here.    82.  Would be a bit warm without the breeze. 

[Itstrainingtime]

87 here at 12:45pm - honestly surprised it's not a couple of degrees higher.

Not complaining.  

[Bubbler86]

12Z GFS continues the slow backing down of the heat wave.  When compared to 2-3 days ago its an extreme difference of 5-10 degrees cooler at 18Z mid to late next week.  Still hot with MDT getting up to near 90 several days in a row (18Z) with high DP's especially Monday Night through Saturday AM.   But certainly not a heat wave anymore as depicted when looking it temps 4-6 degrees above normal.  I personally would not call it a heatwave until we have mid 90's 4-5 days in a row. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Point and click for this afternoon is 87 - currently 92...

[Itstrainingtime]

48 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS continues the slow backing down of the heat wave.  When compared to 2-3 days ago its an extreme difference of 5-10 degrees cooler at 18Z mid to late next week.  Still hot with MDT getting up to near 90 several days in a row (18Z) with high DP's especially Monday Night through Saturday AM.   But certainly not a heat wave anymore as depicted when looking it temps 4-6 degrees above normal.  I personally would not call it a heatwave until we have mid 90's 4-5 days in a row. 

"Official" designation is what - 3 consecutive days above 90?

I agree with your thought process...reaching 90 has become almost routine. (save for a few cooler stretches like we've enjoyed this summer) but still...many days at or above 90 this year. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Point and click for this afternoon is 87 - currently 92...

I think part of the issue with the point and clicks is the reliance on the GFS and possibly some automated temps going in for the GFS or maybe a mesh of models.  I looked at 5 models for 21Z and the only one that has you in the 90's is the HRRR. 

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

"Official" designation is what - 3 consecutive days above 90?

I agree with your thought process...reaching 90 has become almost routine. (save for a few cooler stretches like we've enjoyed this summer) but still...many days at or above 90 this year. 

Yea, its still going to be hot and eventually humid as Tuesday comes on.  But like a snowstorm that is forecast 7 days out and makes the news, the heat wave was also making the rounds of water coolers while all models, including the Euro though possible 94-96's a couple days there, now have it as a few slight to moderate above average August days now.   None of the low 100's of a few days ago. 

 

If a heat wave is considered a heat wave with 3 days above 90 then that is truly strange.  The normal high right now is 86 so that means 3 days slightly above normal is a heat wave?

[Itstrainingtime]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, its still going to be hot and eventually humid as Tuesday comes on.  But like a snowstorm that is forecast 7 days out and makes the news, the heat wave was also making the rounds of water coolers while all models, including the Euro though possible 94-96's a couple days there, now have it as a few slight to moderate above average August days now.   None of the low 100's of a few days ago. 

 

If a heat wave is considered a heat wave with 3 days above 90 then that is truly strange.  The normal high right now is 86 so that means 3 days slightly above normal is a heat wave?

I found this from the World Meteorological Organization: (this is more in line with your idea)

No formal, standardized definition of a heat wave exists. The World Meteorological Organization defines it as five or more consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more. Some countries have adopted their own standards.

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I found this from the World Meteorological Organization: (this is more in line with your idea)

No formal, standardized definition of a heat wave exists. The World Meteorological Organization defines it as five or more consecutive days during which the daily maximum temperature surpasses the average maximum temperature by 5 °C (9 °F) or more. Some countries have adopted their own standards.

Yea, that sounds more like what I thought but did see a web site which described what you posted.   But in theory it could never be a set temp since 90 in Sept is much more of an event than in August.   So by these standards we would need MDT to reach 95 for five straight days which actually was on the docket of the GFS a few days ago.   That was some top notch investigative work.

[Bubbler86]

Getting close for S/E LSV.

 

 

[Superstorm]

Getting close for S/E LSV.
 
 

12Z dry


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

On 8/5/2021 at 10:10 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't pay much attention to LNS either, but it's nice to know that we had the same readings. 

Sometimes I question my station when I see that almost everyone else on here is several degrees cooler at night. I'm not really in an urban area that I'd expect to run warmer. I know that @Mount Joy Snowman should be a little cooler at night, he's in a more conducive area to radiate out well. 

Indeed I am, sitting low down here.  On clear calm nights I will often bottom out at least 3-5 degrees lower than places near the top of the ridge just south of me, and that's off of only like a 200-300' difference in elevation.  Snow-packed winter nights can bring about even more extreme differences.  I was actually going to call you out on your MDT claim the other day haha.  I check it every day and it's not unusual at all for MDT's low to be at least a few degrees warmer than everyone else.  I'm talking all the official reporting stations too (not just our home weenie stations), where MDT will routinely have the highest overnight low in the state, often even warmer than the two Philly stations.  Looks like I topped out today at 92, how 'bout you?

Since I haven't posted in a minute, not sure if it was already brought to everyone's attention but it looks like we ended up with 13 confirmed tornados in PA on July 29th, albeit only one in the LSV, that being an EFO in Lebanon Co.  This is the fifth largest daily outbreak in the state's history.  Almost all were very weak and short-lived, with 7 EF0s, 4 EF1s, 1 EF2, and 1 EF3 (the crazy car dealership one out near Bensalem).  What ended up being pretty pedestrian around here was quite the show in the western and eastern portions of the state.

Also, more medals for the US wrestling team, including an epic comeback in the gold medal match by heavyweight Gable Stevenson.  All five of the American men's freestyle wrestlers have earned a medal in Tokyo, just an incredible historic performance!

[mahantango#1]

Back to the 90's, today's high 92.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

"Official" designation is what - 3 consecutive days above 90?

I agree with your thought process...reaching 90 has become almost routine. (save for a few cooler stretches like we've enjoyed this summer) but still...many days at or above 90 this year. 

In July, MDT had 10 days with high temps over 90. The average number of July days with temps over 90 at MDT is 9.3. So, we basically just had an average July with the amount of days over 90.

This info was in the CTP monthly July climate summary for MDT.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

53 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Back to the 90's, today's high 92.

MDT had a high of 91, so this is day 1 of the potential heat wave.

[canderson]

Todsy’s my birthday and I asked for a trace of snow but, alas, dreams crushed. 

[Blizzard of 93]

23 minutes ago, canderson said:

Todsy’s my birthday and I asked for a trace of snow but, alas, dreams crushed. 

Lol, maybe snow for your half birthday in 6 months !

Happy Birthday! Enjoy your day!

[Superstorm]

Todsy’s my birthday and I asked for a trace of snow but, alas, dreams crushed. 

Happy Bday.


.

[Superstorm]

It is really nice out.


.

[TimB]

7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

12Z GFS continues the slow backing down of the heat wave.  When compared to 2-3 days ago its an extreme difference of 5-10 degrees cooler at 18Z mid to late next week.  Still hot with MDT getting up to near 90 several days in a row (18Z) with high DP's especially Monday Night through Saturday AM.   But certainly not a heat wave anymore as depicted when looking it temps 4-6 degrees above normal.  I personally would not call it a heatwave until we have mid 90's 4-5 days in a row. 

I suspect the GFS eventually caves to the EC and kills the heat later next week. But we shall see.

[TimB]

23 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Quiet here tonight.  Everyone must be glued to the Cowboys and Steelers slobberknocker showdown.  Can either team get to 10 points? 

QB2 controversy in Pittsburgh incoming. We’ll see which one stops looking like garbage first. Wasn’t impressed with anything either Rudolph or Haskins did last night. I guess Haskins led two drives that resulted in points, but they were 33 and 14 yard drives.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Indeed I am, sitting low down here.  On clear calm nights I will often bottom out at least 3-5 degrees lower than places near the top of the ridge just south of me, and that's off of only like a 200-300' difference in elevation.  Snow-packed winter nights can bring about even more extreme differences.  I was actually going to call you out on your MDT claim the other day haha.  I check it every day and it's not unusual at all for MDT's low to be at least a few degrees warmer than everyone else.  I'm talking all the official reporting stations too (not just our home weenie stations), where MDT will routinely have the highest overnight low in the state, often even warmer than the two Philly stations.  Looks like I topped out today at 92, how 'bout you?

Since I haven't posted in a minute, not sure if it was already brought to everyone's attention but it looks like we ended up with 13 confirmed tornados in PA on July 29th, albeit only one in the LSV, that being an EFO in Lebanon Co.  This is the fifth largest daily outbreak in the state's history.  Almost all were very weak and short-lived, with 7 EF0s, 4 EF1s, 1 EF2, and 1 EF3 (the crazy car dealership one out near Bensalem).  What ended up being pretty pedestrian around here was quite the show in the western and eastern portions of the state.

Also, more medals for the US wrestling team, including an epic comeback in the gold medal match by heavyweight Gable Stevenson.  All five of the American men's freestyle wrestlers have earned a medal in Tokyo, just an incredible historic performance!

I reached 92 today as well. 

Great info on the tornado outbreak on 7/29. It was quite a day across the Commonwealth...of course, nothing like 5/31/1985. I have such vivid memories of that day watching the killer twisters in western and central PA and wondering if we were going to get in on the action here in the LSV. Fortunately, we did not. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

QB2 controversy in Pittsburgh incoming. We’ll see which one stops looking like garbage first. Wasn’t impressed with anything either Rudolph or Haskins did last night. I guess Haskins led two drives that resulted in points, but they were 33 and 14 yard drives.

Same story, different year. This team is one injury away to #7 from being truly awful instead of just mediocre. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Back to the 90's, today's high 92.

And yet again, we had the exact same high temps. Seriously, it happens almost every day. 

[TimB]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Same story, different year. This team is one injury away to #7 from being truly awful instead of just mediocre. 

Still not convinced this team’s playoff chances are much more than 25-40% even if #7 is healthy all season.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Still not convinced this team’s playoff chances are much more than 25-40% even if #7 is healthy all season.

Exactly, which is why I said mediocre with #7.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Still not convinced this team’s playoff chances are much more than 25-40% even if #7 is healthy all season.

Sadly, I agree with this. 

[mahantango#1]

70 for the overnight low