Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Another tornado warning out in western PA for Westmoreland and Fayette counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Even if the cloud cover damaged severe a bit, it sure saved on A/C today. My A/C has hardly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Sun has come out upstream, if that changes the game any for instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 Certainly NOT saying this will happen, just a thought that occurred to me...how many times has an area been under an enhanced risk with any sort of watch never issued? At this point I think local warnings are more likely than an areal watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Sun has come out upstream, if that changes the game any for instability. See my previous note for S/W PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Even if the cloud cover damaged severe a bit, it sure saved on A/C today. My A/C has hardly run. My temp has been fluctuating between 80 and 82 for hours. 82 when it's bright, near 80 when the cloud cover thickens. Dewpoint is holding steady at 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: My temp has been fluctuating between 80 and 82 for hours. 82 when it's bright, near 80 when the cloud cover thickens. Dewpoint is holding steady at 71. And the A/C comment did not apply to you. I am sure yours is full sail ahead regardless! LOL. Mine is set on 75 right now. Outside temp 78 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 The latest 1800z Mesoanalysis basically shows almost any CIN eroded. SBCAPE up to 2000 J/kg for much of Lancaster/York/Adams and MLCAPE up to 1000 approaching ~1500 J/kg. Bulk shear has very nicely increased as expected. Low level lapse rates have been increasing as well, LCLs are low (support tornadoes). So while CAPE is certainly not incredible by any means, it should get the job down with the ample shear. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, maybe an iso tornado later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: See my previous note for S/W PA. Ah yes, the only place it’s sunny right now. We don’t have the other parameters lined up though. Further upstream over Ohio it looks like some isolated storms have fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Ah yes, the only place it’s sunny right now. We don’t have the other parameters lined up though. Further upstream over Ohio it looks like some isolated storms have fired. Every piece of short term guidance gets S/W (really West Central as well) PA into the game 4-8PM. Something to watch. Even the Rap is game. Rap gives LSV some love as well in that evening time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Certainly NOT saying this will happen, just a thought that occurred to me...how many times has an area been under an enhanced risk with any sort of watch never issued? At this point I think local warnings are more likely than an areal watch. More than a few, if I had to guess. I’d check SPC archives if I had any idea of the date, but I think it happened in W PA once maybe last year or the year before. Edit: I forgot, ENH risk has only existed for a handful of years. So it probably hasn’t occurred many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Funnel cloud spotted in storm entering somerset county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Every piece of short term guidance gets S/W (really West Central as well) PA into the game 4-8PM. Something to watch. Even the Rap is game. Rap gives LSV some love as well in that evening time frame. This game isn’t over, it’s only 2pm and we’re still hours from the best climo for severe storms in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Funnel cloud spotted in storm entering somerset county * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Somerset County in south central Pennsylvania... * Until 245 PM EDT. * At 212 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Seven Springs, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported funnel cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Funnel cloud spotted in storm entering somerset county Seems to be a hook in the radar of that last storm pulling through there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Tornado Watch now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Those storms out west are going to hit gasoline in the LSV they aren't seeing already. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 Rain has commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Those storms in Bedford county, entering Fulton, look to have that discrete/curvy look to them. No warnings on them though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Sun has come out upstream, if that changes the game any for instability. If by upstream you mean post frontal...then no...it isnt going to do anything. Sun needs to be out NOW for the LSV to get T boomers crankin. Its currently light rain in Etown. Squashes the instability. Yes we can still get good rains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Seems to be a hook in the radar of that last storm pulling through there. Storm is in dead zone of radars as well. Crossing the high ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If by upstream you mean post frontal...then no...it isnt going to do anything. Sun needs to be out NOW for the LSV to get T boomers crankin. Its currently light rain in Etown. Squashes the instability. Yes we can still get good rains though. I disagree actually today - parameter are there regardless of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: I disagree actually today - parameter are there regardless of sun. Mt Holly mentioned this in their disco this morning - they said that clearing today had little to no bearing on severe potential. (I'm sure that sun wouldn't have hurt) They said that pretty much every box was checked for a severe event today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 @Bubbler86storm just south of you going to get warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: @Bubbler86storm just south of you going to get warned Its raining a bit here but that one will miss me. Confident I get that next batch though as its all aimed for the S/W LSV. Not even any thunder so its not too wild south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Mt Holly mentioned this in their disco this morning - they said that clearing today had little to no bearing on severe potential. (I'm sure that sun wouldn't have hurt) They said that pretty much every box was checked for a severe event today. then I guess time will tell. Sun is and always has been the biggest spark for creating instability and causing needed lift. Yes, there is more to it than that, but they are not as big of sparks IMO. Lower max temps, and no sun are 2 big empty boxes unchecked IMO. I'll stick w/ my call.....all good. If I'm wrong, I'm happy for you storm chasers. Enjoy. I want the rain (and we are getting it as I type), so its a win for me anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: then I guess time will tell. Sun is and always has been the biggest spark for creating instability and causing needed lift. Yes, there is more to it than that, but they are not as big of sparks IMO. Lower max temps, and no sun are 2 big empty boxes unchecked IMO. I'll stick w/ my call.....all good. If I'm wrong, I'm happy for you storm chasers. Enjoy. I want the rain (and we are getting it as I type), so its a win for me anyway. For the record, I would have agreed 100% with you had I not read that. (and the thoughts of others) I don't recall a significant severe day without ample sun. Like you said...we'll find out soon enough. Hoping like heck you're right. And I am NOT a storm chaser. I am a bonafide storm hater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: For the record, I would have agreed 100% with you had I not read that. (and the thoughts of others) I don't recall a significant severe day without ample sun. Like you said...we'll find out soon enough. Hoping like heck you're right. And I am NOT a storm chaser. I am a bonafide winter storm hater? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: For the record, I would have agreed 100% with you had I not read that. (and the thoughts of others) I don't recall a significant severe day without ample sun. Like you said...we'll find out soon enough. Hoping like heck you're right. And I am NOT a storm chaser. I am a bonafide storm hater. dp up to 79 here. Bit thick for sure. Id be more worried about flash flooding then bow echos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Rain starting here, light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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