paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: As others have mentioned, cloud cover only seems to be thickening, hmmmmmmm, we shall see but the visible satellite in motion is not overly promising...... Yep unless the clouds break it could be tough for development of Cells. I am looking forward to some fall temps though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep unless the clouds break it could be tough for development of Cells. I am looking forward to some fall temps though! Just plan rain is fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Just plan rain is fine. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Just plan rain is fine. Yes sir. #hopinglikeyouknowwhatthatthecloudsholdtough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: As others have mentioned, cloud cover only seems to be thickening, hmmmmmmm, we shall see but the visible satellite in motion is not overly promising...... Interesting snapshot - there is a "weakness" in the deck over Lanco - you can see it over the central part of the county. Sun has actually been peaking out here at work for the past 45 minutes already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 LSV is in the good spot per State College for Storm Development. It should be an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Interesting snapshot - there is a "weakness" in the deck over Lanco - you can see it over the central part of the county. Sun has actually been peaking out here at work for the past 45 minutes already. Sure is but if you put it in motion it's actually thickening not thinning. Tough to say how we'll look in a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Don't need much sun today to pop supercells. Ingredients (and latent heat) are there. Even an hour would greatly aid in development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, canderson said: Don't need much sun today to pop supercells. Ingredients (and latent heat) are there. Even an hour would greatly aid in development. Agreed, many of the metrics are in place, and solidly so. This has almost all the ingredients you look for. With that said, you'd still like to see a little sun at some point to ripen things up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 38 minutes ago, canderson said: Don't need much sun today to pop supercells. Ingredients (and latent heat) are there. Even an hour would greatly aid in development. 27 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Agreed, many of the metrics are in place, and solidly so. This has almost all the ingredients you look for. With that said, you'd still like to see a little sun at some point to ripen things up. I would tend to agree. It’s way too early to declare the severe threat DOA. But living up to the hype? That remains to be seen. That said, PBZ discussion says the MCS coming out of the Midwest has been modeled poorly thus far, and if the models don’t have that right, what else do they not have right? My point & click is down to a 20% chance of rain today and a 40% chance tonight, but of course I’m not in the prime area for this round like you guys are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Should be getting a thunderstorm and tornado watch pretty soon, we're 4 or so hours from game tipoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Just plan rain is fine. I haven't seen a severe storm yet this season, so I want mine...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Cloud cover starting to thin out considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Cloud cover starting to thin out considerably. Still heavy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Voyager said: I haven't seen a severe storm yet this season, so I want mine...lol No problems, storms are fine as well :-). Still get the wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 I’m actually surprised…sun is starting to overpower the clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Still heavy here. Take a look at satellite and you can see it starting to thin out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: Take a look at satellite and you can see it starting to thin out. Good stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: Good stuff! Yessir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Take a look at satellite and you can see it starting to thin out. Yes you really can, it's subtle but it's there. Also a thicker band moving in from the west though. You can also clearly see the multiple layers of clouds moving in all directions, evidence of the directional shear that's in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Watching from afar today in the Catskills where it looks like we won’t see as much action, I would think those who are in the main target zones need to thin out within the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 And we have sun poking through (briefly for now, but the glowing death ball is there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 SBCAPE and MLCAPE continue to increase in coverage and intensity across the area, favoring eastern areas as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, Newman said: SBCAPE and MLCAPE continue to increase in coverage and intensity across the area, favoring eastern areas as of now You able to pull skew data (and translate to layman terms ha) for MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 looking at the temp/dews it looks like best instability might be south of MD line. Currently cloudy in Etown. Didnt see the sun yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, canderson said: You able to pull skew data (and translate to layman terms ha) for MDT? I can't pull up any current skew-t data (which sucks, MDT should send up a weather balloon lol). But the latest 12z 3k NAM has plenty of deep layer shear and a TOR sounding for the MDT region. In layman's terms... atmosphere go spinny, just need some sun... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Still cloudy in northern Lancaster and judging by the line racing on radar we might be running out of time for getting this heating going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 Still cloudy here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 29, 2021 Share Posted July 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at the temp/dews it looks like best instability might be south of MD line. Currently cloudy in Etown. Didnt see the sun yet today. So popcorn farts for all the LSV? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 29, 2021 Author Share Posted July 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: So pop corn farts for all the LSV? Hopefully those farts produce some actual drops and not just gas. Ready for some rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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