Itstrainingtime Posted July 28, 2021 Author Share Posted July 28, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: I mean weather enthusiasts with even a moderate amount of understanding of the topic. I’m not talking about the jackasses who comment on NWS Facebook/Twitter posts. Pittsburghers bitch about weather, Tomlin, anything more than most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: As with all politics-adjacent topics, the discourse is controlled by people who have spent their whole lives telling the people who cast votes for them what they want to hear. Indeed. I would just hope the CDC would be the hard core science folks who tell it how it is and not try to please the masses. They did say that things could change in the future but they spent a lot of time emphasizing "getting back to normal" and probably could have been more realistic and say "lets check on this again in a few months". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 @Itstrainingtime, exactly. Thanks for the correction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 28, 2021 Author Share Posted July 28, 2021 Best wishes to @sauss06 for a great vacation at the beach! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Best wishes to @sauss06 for a great vacation at the beach! No masks in the sand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I mean weather enthusiasts with even a moderate amount of understanding of the topic. I’m not talking about the jackasses who comment on NWS Facebook/Twitter posts. Pittsburghers bitch about weather, sports, anything more than most. does CTP count??? asking for a friend...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streak Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: Come sometime later September, October when I lose the sun due to the angle and living along the bottom of the mountain. MDT will usually beat me out on high temperatures during the day. I'm not ready for that, limited sun during the later fall and winter season and the dampness to go along with it too. Not into the higher 95+ temps but I love summer, and I love the extended daylight. We’re not even out of July yet and I’m already not wanting it to end. This summer has been quite nice so far; a something-for-everyone mix of higher temps with cooler than average periods scattered throughout. I know a lot of us still need more rain, but even there it seems like most of us have done at least a little better than last year. Hopefully we continue to fend off the extreme, sustained heat that’s been baking the west and midwest this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: does CTP count??? asking for a friend...... I don’t often look at CTP’s social media, or NWS social media pages in general, because of the aforementioned issue of the clueless masses chewing out mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw the name of the Green Tagger and can PM you with it if you want to ask them for a reason. Yes thanks that could be helpful. Not trying to find out who got the post taken down or anything like that. Not interested in any type of petty fight. But it would be helpful to understand the reasoning for the removal so I know what to expect going forward. I am a big fan of consistency ha. 10 minutes ago, TimB84 said: The only thing I’ll say to this is, we don’t bash meteorologists when they’re wrong or reverse course on something. You make a good point, although I would add that meteorologists build loads of uncertainty into their forecast. Now, I'll grant you that most people don't know how to interpret that uncertainty haha, and when you actually break it down on that level meteorologists do quite well. One of the points I was making yesterday is that it would behoove the CDC and health professionals to show a bit more humility and admit when they simply don't know something. Again, no one minds a "we don't know" comment so long as it's honest. Just don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining. The word "science" also gets thrown around entirely too much in regards to all things Covid. Science is the acceleration of gravity being 9.8 meters per second squared. Repeatable observable experimentation. Fact. So much of the policy surrounding covid is flying blind or trying to make bold predictions based on limited knowledge. It seems like anyone can just shout "follow the science" as cover to do whatever they please, and as someone who graduated from a college of science, I just don't buy it. But I do hear you Tim, nothing easy about any of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 The 12Z HRRR says none of the normal posters in here reach 90 today. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The 12Z HRRR says none of the normal posters in here reach 90 today. We shall see. Excellent! I was hoping the last days of 90's for a while was yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 a little snippet to brighten the mood.....and remember....always trust the science (and math).....it never lies (just playin'....so relax all). Hello October.....I mean August. #iwannabelieve 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: a little snippet to brighten the mood.....and remember....always trust the science (and math).....it never lies (just playin'....so relax all). Hello October.....I mean August. #iwannabelieve Keep kicking those ridges out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: a little snippet to brighten the mood.....and remember....always trust the science (and math).....it never lies (just playin'....so relax all). Hello October.....I mean August. #iwannabelieve Awesome pic nut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Keep kicking those ridges out. truth pal.... starting to really think we get a repeat summer like the one that i referenced last week ( think Tim said 06'). Most of conus cooked, while we were saved by the NW flow here in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: truth pal.... starting to really think we get a repeat summer like the one that i referenced last week ( think Tim said 06'). Most of conus cooked, while we were saved by the NW flow here in the NE. I agree and this is with the fact that MDT had their 3rd warmest June ever recorded. It was close to record setting but nothing like many others records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Hi Guys... I'm thinking now might be a good time to propose the following given the overall amount of OT (and I'm not talking about just sports): How about we start a separate OT thread so that anyone and everyone who wants to express their opinions about any other topic other than weather has a place to do it? I've felt this way ever since the number of OT-related posts was quickly infiltrating this beloved weather thread. Would it really be that inconvenient to have to go back one menu level and select that thread? Better yet...how about you open a second tab with the OT window just a simple click away?? Just to cite one example of having the benefits of the OT thread...perhaps @Mount Joy Snowmanand his censored post from yesterday would have survived and would still be there today for others to see? After all, if his post had been in an OT thread, that would have made it much harder to be removed since the whole purpose of an OT thread is to talk about other topics. To say that I'm livid over the removal of that censored post would be an understatement. I never got the chance to read it...and maybe I really would have liked to. As far as I'm concerned that moderator...whoever he is...needs to come back here and give us his reason(s) for the post's removal. Wouldn't it have been much easier to have PM'd @Mount Joy Snowmanto discuss whatever the issue was that was complained about? I'll stop now before this post gets censored too!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Massive PNA spike coming up will introduce downstream troughing across much of the NE US. Cooler weather and lower dew points to end July/start August with a NW flow. Some rain chances will keep temps down too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Hi Guys... I'm thinking now might be a good time to propose the following given the overall amount of OT (and I'm not talking about just sports): How about we start a separate OT thread so that anyone and everyone who wants to express their opinions about any other topic other than weather has a place to do it? I've felt this way ever since the number of OT-related posts was quickly infiltrating this beloved weather thread. Would it really be that inconvenient to have to go back one menu level and select that thread? Better yet...how about you open a second tab with the OT window just a simple click away?? Just to cite one example of having the benefits of the OT thread...perhaps @Mount Joy Snowmanand his censored post from yesterday would have survived and would still be there today for others to see? After all, if his post had been in an OT thread, that would have made it much harder to be removed since the whole purpose of an OT thread is to talk about other topics. To say that I'm livid over the removal of that censored post would be an understatement. I never got the chance to read it...and maybe I really would have liked to. As far as I'm concerned that moderator...whoever he is...needs to come back here and give us his reason(s) for the post's removal. Wouldn't it have been much easier to have PM'd @Mount Joy Snowmanto discuss whatever the issue was that was complained about? I'll stop now before this post gets censored too!! I am not a fan of an OT thread in here because we typically do not talk about anything other than weather unless we are in the summer months when it is slowwww moving. But whatever works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, paweather said: I am not a fan of an OT thread in here because we typically do not talk about anything other than weather unless we are in the summer months when it is slowwww moving. But whatever works. Had this thought awhile back but I feel the two main issues would be 1) not much buy-in or 2) it wouldn’t work anyway because things devolve into off-topic banter without much warning and it’d be hard to contain. But wouldn’t be against giving it a shot. Would still have to be very careful with topics like covid because of how divisive they are. It would, however, potentially prevent people from having to read about the USA basketball team or the Pirates or Orioles or Steelers or Cowboys or masks or vaccines or the Pillow carnival if they don’t want to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Newman said: Massive PNA spike coming up will introduce downstream troughing across much of the NE US. Cooler weather and lower dew points to end July/start August with a NW flow. Some rain chances will keep temps down too. Good stuff Newman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 47 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Best wishes to @sauss06 for a great vacation at the beach! Thank you. Beer is on ice! 45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No masks in the sand. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Not the most reliable as of late but enough to warrant a comment, that is one fearsome line heading due south of the 3K. Limited effects on the LSV but this would be a newsmaker in that form. So definitely going to be an interesting watch day tomorrow with a signal like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Not the most reliable as of late but enough to warrant a comment, that is one fearsome line heading due south of the 3K. Limited effects on the LSV but this would be a newsmaker in that form. So definitely going to be an interesting watch day tomorrow with a signal like that. That is intense! WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 3k NAM sounding for Adams county tomorrow. Curvy hodograph, lots of deep layer shear! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 This is from Mount Holly AFD, they mention that morning convection or cloud debris could make tomorrow a non-event (especially for eastern areas). So, that'll be the wild card as is typically the case in high-end severe events around here. If we can have the MCS/derecho forming in the upper midwest tonight clear out of the region early AND we can limit any morning convection associated... tomorrow will be the best day yet this year in terms of severe storm chances. I'm already thinking about chasing out in Adams/York/Cumberland/Perry counties tomorrow With those caveats mentioned, the dynamics on Thursday are no doubt impressive, unlike any we`ve seen this year in terms of the potential overlap of instability, shear, and forcing if everything comes together right. 28.0z CAM guidance largely clobbers the region with severe convection Thursday afternoon and evening, but run-to- run consistency has been poor. Should several of those 0z CAM solutions (i.e. 3km NAM, ARW) and their associated forecast soundings come to pass, then a significant severe weather event with all severe hazards would be likely. The Storm Prediction Center has added a Slight Risk of severe weather over much of the region. Feel that is very reasonable at this stage, and highly recommend referencing the SWODY2 discussion for additional information. We should stress again that confidence in the details of the Thursday forecast is low, but encourage all users to monitor the forecast due to both the uncertainty and the higher than normal potential threat level if all factors were to come together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 Unfortunately what the 6z had....the nooner 12k Nam just UN nam'd us. Kpit does the best while the energy headed towards Rouzerville goes poof like a popcorn fart right over his head. 3k looks decent with almost a squall line kinda look. Based on CTP's disco, no doubt looks like something worth watching as the dynamics are going to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 28, 2021 Share Posted July 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Unfortunately what the 6z had....the nooner 12k Nam just UN nam'd us. Kpit does the best while the energy headed towards Rouzerville goes poof like a popcorn fart right over his head. 3k looks decent with almost a squall line kinda look. Based on CTP's disco, no doubt looks like something worth watching as the dynamics are going to be there. The 6Z Nam was a big ole zero here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 28, 2021 Author Share Posted July 28, 2021 Whatever happens or doesn't happen tomorrow, the weather following looks incredible. And unlike typical summer fronts, instead of having a nice day or perhaps two, it looks like a nice string of days to close out July and start of the dog days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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