Central PA - Summer 2021

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

 

Ugh I know, I completely agree and am rarely one to tout anything beyond like 5-7 days out.  In fact, I basically pay no mind to the spin-the-wheel potion of the model runs but alas we all have moments of weakness haha.  Sure enough, 12z GFS changes things yet again.  I will give myself ten lashings for jumping the gun on this one. 

We are all just talking model PBB so no one here cares if something disappears and someone jumped on it.  Just for fun in that range. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z.

I am one of those people, rarely pay any mind to the off-hour runs.  I don't believe they have as much initialization data ingested into them, eh?  Also, just gets to be too much at times, hard enough tracking all the 0/12z stuff ha.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I am one of those people, rarely pay any mind to the off-hour runs.  I don't believe they have as much initialization data ingested into them, eh?  Also, just gets to be too much at times, hard enough tracking all the 0/12z stuff ha.

Yeah, there’s the whole timing of soundings/balloon launches thing. But if the initial data doesn’t change much, then why does the model result sometimes change wildly? That’s what I’m confused about.

[paweather]

Well hit 90. Hope this is the last 90 for a while!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Yeah, there’s the whole timing of soundings/balloon launches thing. But if the initial data doesn’t change much, then why does the model result sometimes change wildly? That’s what I’m confused about.

I think it's just a matter of very small variations near an initialization period being able to cause much larger impacts down the line, particularly the farther out you go i.e. the Butterfly Effect.

[Itstrainingtime]

Got to 91 at 1:15...then dropped to 89 at 2:00. Now back up to 91 at 3:00pm. 

[Bubbler86]

2 hours ago, TimB84 said:

Most of CTP, unfortunately.

So the CDC Guidance was all school kids, regardless of location, wear masks and 2/3 of the adult/non school country start wearing them again inside but for now that only involves 4 counties in PA.    Their constant changes are an issue with people following them. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Got to 91 at 1:15...then dropped to 89 at 2:00. Now back up to 91 at 3:00pm. 

I'm at 91 as well, which is my high for the day.

[paweather]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So the CDC Guidance was all school kids wear masks and 2/3 of the country start wearing them again but for now that only involves 4 counties in PA.    Their constant changes are an issue with people following them. 

Schools are going to erupt across the country. And the 2/3 of the country is a recommendation they cannot force you to wear a mask. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Schools are going to erupt across the country. And the 2/3 of the country is a recommendation they cannot force you to wear a mask. 

All of these are recommends.  If the stores require masks then it will be a requirement to come in.  Schools can still choose not to but I bet a lot go with the CDC.  The CDC never should have taken the mask rule away in such totality. Its confusing to people and is going to cause anger.   Don't take any of my comments as pro mask vs. being fluid with how we move forward because I do not think we know much more about transmission than we did in the beginning of 2020. 

[paweather]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

All of these are recommends.  If the stores require masks then it will be a requirement to come in.  Schools can still choose not to but I bet a lot go with the CDC.  The CDC never should have taken the mask rule away in such totality. Its confusing to people and is going to cause anger. 

CDC is really ridiculous with there change, I agree. I don't think we around here will be masking. 

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So the CDC Guidance was all school kids wear masks and 2/3 of the country start wearing them again but for now that only involves 4 counties in PA.    Their constant changes are an issue with people following them. 

I'll bite. Once.  

I'm fully vaccinated and have been for months. My wife just got her first dose last week and will be fully vaccinated in August. None of my 4 grown kids have gotten vaccinated, and all of them have ZERO interest in getting jabbed. 

As much as I'd personally like them to, and as much as I'd love to see the nationwide percentage be much higher than it is, the CDC has done nothing to instill trust (and confidence) in making Covid-related decisions. My kids were done with all of this months ago...I fear that their tune will change if and when they get sick, which I'm starting to believe increasingly will happen. Fact is, my kids (ages 19 up to 26) are just a small sample of our nation's opinion on this. So many people have tuned out due to changing messages, conflicting reports, he said this, she said that...they're over it. They don't care. Like I said, it bothers me greatly but I can't change their minds. And I go through all of this...all the conversations that we've had, all of the reports that I read, everything that we do know about the virus and it's variants - and I come to the realization that this is something that we're going to be dealing with for a very long time. 

Right now, the cases seem to be growing at a quicker rate than any of the previous waves. And yet so many people aren't even aware of what's happening AND don't care. 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I'm at 91 as well, which is my high for the day.

I just eeked out a 92. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll bite. Once.  

I'm fully vaccinated and have been for months. My wife just got her first dose last week and will be fully vaccinated in August. None of my 4 grown kids have gotten vaccinated, and all of them have ZERO interest in getting jabbed. 

As much as I'd personally like them to, and as much as I'd love to see the nationwide percentage be much higher than it is, the CDC has done nothing to instill trust (and confidence) in making Covid-related decisions. My kids were done with all of this months ago...I fear that their tune will change if and when they get sick, which I'm starting to believe increasingly will happen. Fact is, my kids (ages 19 up to 26) are just a small sample of our nation's opinion on this. So many people have tuned out due to changing messages, conflicting reports, he said this, she said that...they're over it. They don't care. Like I said, it bothers me greatly but I can't change their minds. And I go through all of this...all the conversations that we've had, all of the reports that I read, everything that we do know about the virus and it's variants - and I come to the realization that this is something that we're going to be dealing with for a very long time. 

Right now, the cases seem to be growing at a quicker rate than any of the previous waves. And yet so many people aren't even aware of what's happening AND don't care. 

 

Good post and as to your kids, there are a LOT of people who feel that way.  Who knows who is right.  Like you said, guidance is all over the place.  But someone who thinks we are done with it was always in for disappointment because of 1) Lack of people getting vaxxed.  2) Our lack of understanding of what we are dealing with. The cases are growing, the people who get very sick (mostly unvaxxed) seem to falter much faster and you can almost be guaranteed that there will be another variant that is worse down the road.  They are already up to at least Lambda.  So when I talk to people about this I try to preach patience and be flexible.  

[TimB]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll bite. Once.  

I'm fully vaccinated and have been for months. My wife just got her first dose last week and will be fully vaccinated in August. None of my 4 grown kids have gotten vaccinated, and all of them have ZERO interest in getting jabbed. 

As much as I'd personally like them to, and as much as I'd love to see the nationwide percentage be much higher than it is, the CDC has done nothing to instill trust (and confidence) in making Covid-related decisions. My kids were done with all of this months ago...I fear that their tune will change if and when they get sick, which I'm starting to believe increasingly will happen. Fact is, my kids (ages 19 up to 26) are just a small sample of our nation's opinion on this. So many people have tuned out due to changing messages, conflicting reports, he said this, she said that...they're over it. They don't care. Like I said, it bothers me greatly but I can't change their minds. And I go through all of this...all the conversations that we've had, all of the reports that I read, everything that we do know about the virus and it's variants - and I come to the realization that this is something that we're going to be dealing with for a very long time. 

Right now, the cases seem to be growing at a quicker rate than any of the previous waves. And yet so many people aren't even aware of what's happening AND don't care. 

 

Well said. I think we all hope/wish this was over. Unfortunately it’s not. A lot of us will probably get covid at some point. For those of us who are vaccinated and/or young and healthy, we can hope it’ll be a mild illness (though not a guarantee). For those who are not vaccinated, a risk is being taken. I worry about what the future holds with all of this. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

 

Ugh I know, I completely agree and am rarely one to tout anything beyond like 5-7 days out.  In fact, I basically pay no mind to the spin-the-wheel potion of the model runs but alas we all have moments of weakness haha.  Sure enough, 12z GFS changes things yet again.  I will give myself ten lashings for jumping the gun on this one. 

Its all good. The takeaway is that based on upper air pattern as depicted here in the northeast, is that we are not likely to get much in the way of prolonged heat.  Transient heat/cold like what we've seen for most of the summer.  We need to watch that SER and how far it backs west and how it could link up w/ the midwest pressure cooker and we'd get real hot n real sticky....other concern is that if we get flat w/e trough around here, as it could tug lobes of heat east and we'd be hot n dry (lower humidity but still hot).  As we all know, the swings of the GFS Op in long range can be rather drastic, so noone really knows what 10 days will look like but the look right now sure is nice for many here in the NE.

[paweather]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll bite. Once.  

I'm fully vaccinated and have been for months. My wife just got her first dose last week and will be fully vaccinated in August. None of my 4 grown kids have gotten vaccinated, and all of them have ZERO interest in getting jabbed. 

As much as I'd personally like them to, and as much as I'd love to see the nationwide percentage be much higher than it is, the CDC has done nothing to instill trust (and confidence) in making Covid-related decisions. My kids were done with all of this months ago...I fear that their tune will change if and when they get sick, which I'm starting to believe increasingly will happen. Fact is, my kids (ages 19 up to 26) are just a small sample of our nation's opinion on this. So many people have tuned out due to changing messages, conflicting reports, he said this, she said that...they're over it. They don't care. Like I said, it bothers me greatly but I can't change their minds. And I go through all of this...all the conversations that we've had, all of the reports that I read, everything that we do know about the virus and it's variants - and I come to the realization that this is something that we're going to be dealing with for a very long time. 

Right now, the cases seem to be growing at a quicker rate than any of the previous waves. And yet so many people aren't even aware of what's happening AND don't care. 

 

Good reply but this whole cases seem to be growing is thrown out of proportion. Of course they will grow it is a virus just like any other viruses we have. And as you said we will be living with this for a long time it is time to move on if your vax.

[paweather]

 

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Well said. I think we all hope/wish this was over. Unfortunately it’s not. A lot of us will probably get covid at some point. For those of us who are vaccinated and/or young and healthy, we can hope it’ll be a mild illness (though not a guarantee). For those who are not vaccinated, a risk is being taken. I worry about what the future holds with all of this. 

It will never be over. 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll bite. Once.  

I'm fully vaccinated and have been for months. My wife just got her first dose last week and will be fully vaccinated in August. None of my 4 grown kids have gotten vaccinated, and all of them have ZERO interest in getting jabbed. 

As much as I'd personally like them to, and as much as I'd love to see the nationwide percentage be much higher than it is, the CDC has done nothing to instill trust (and confidence) in making Covid-related decisions. My kids were done with all of this months ago...I fear that their tune will change if and when they get sick, which I'm starting to believe increasingly will happen. Fact is, my kids (ages 19 up to 26) are just a small sample of our nation's opinion on this. So many people have tuned out due to changing messages, conflicting reports, he said this, she said that...they're over it. They don't care. Like I said, it bothers me greatly but I can't change their minds. And I go through all of this...all the conversations that we've had, all of the reports that I read, everything that we do know about the virus and it's variants - and I come to the realization that this is something that we're going to be dealing with for a very long time. 

Right now, the cases seem to be growing at a quicker rate than any of the previous waves. And yet so many people aren't even aware of what's happening AND don't care. 

 

One more thing just in case re: your wife...that two week waiting period after the second jab is a big deal.  I know several people who got it because they stopped being careful and did not wait the full two weeks to assume their vaccination had kicked in. 

[TimB]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

One more thing just in case re: your wife...that two week waiting period after the second jab is a big deal.  I know several people who got it because they stopped being careful and did not wait the full two weeks to assume their vaccination had kicked in. 

I went to Michigan two days after my second jab when they were spiking and even ate in a restaurant (twice!) and didn’t get covid. But that’s certainly not reason not to be cautious, and I fully realize I was lucky.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

I went to Michigan two days after my second jab when they were spiking and even ate in a restaurant (twice!) and didn’t get covid. But that’s certainly not reason not to be cautious, and I fully realize I was lucky.

Definitely not a guarantee you get covid if not careful but I was commenting that the two weeks is more than just passing caution...it takes time for your body to build up its full plan of attack against the virus.   The flu or other "normal viruses"  do not put normally healthy 30 and 40 year old's in the hospital. 

[paweather]

Again where are the stats that 30, 40 year old's are having issues in the hospital with this Delta variant. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

Again where are the stats that 30, 40 year old's are having issues in the hospital with this Delta variant. 

In Florida and basically anywhere it is prevalent now.  But I do not want you to be upset over this.  I can send you links aplenty but just Google search. I will give one link which was the top one when I searched. That is probably all I am going to say so we can enjoy snow together in the winter. 

 

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/health-officials-younger-people-hospitalized-covid-19-delta/287-444b5cc0-b8f6-4be6-8010-de07baa93bde

 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

In Florida and basically anywhere it is prevalent now.  But I do not want you to be upset over this.  I can send you links aplenty but just Google search. I will give one link which was the top one when I searched. That is probably all I am going to say so we can enjoy snow together in the winter. 

 

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/health-officials-younger-people-hospitalized-covid-19-delta/287-444b5cc0-b8f6-4be6-8010-de07baa93bde

 

No worries, I am not upset. I am just believing that if you are vax you are fine. Asymptomatic. But all good.   

[Bubbler86]

Just now, paweather said:

No worries, I am not upset. I am just believing that if you are vax you are fine. Asymptomatic. But all good.   

Yes, most of these are unvaxxed people.  You are better off if vaxxed but you can carry the virus to others per the stuff I have read. 

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In Florida and basically anywhere it is prevalent now.  But I do not want you to be upset over this.  I can send you links aplenty but just Google search. I will give one link which was the top one when I searched. That is probably all I am going to say so we can enjoy snow together in the winter. 

 

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/health-officials-younger-people-hospitalized-covid-19-delta/287-444b5cc0-b8f6-4be6-8010-de07baa93bde

 

And yes regardless we will enjoy the winter my friend! It is OK to have different opinions. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, most of these are unvaxxed people.  You are better off if vaxxed but you can carry the virus to others per the stuff I have read. 

Could be true on that not sure. So many unknowns! 

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

One more thing just in case re: your wife...that two week waiting period after the second jab is a big deal.  I know several people who got it because they stopped being careful and did not wait the full two weeks to assume their vaccination had kicked in. 

That's a great point! I know for myself how difficult it was after getting the 2nd dose and resisting the urge to out and run naked through the midtown Historic District. Those 2 weeks were more difficult with my patience than the 3 weeks between jabs were. 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

No worries, I am not upset. I am just believing that if you are vax you are fine. Asymptomatic. But all good.   

The issue is if you're asymptomatic you can still spread to others. I couldn't give a shit less about an adult who dies who decided not to get a proven vaccine because Darwin awards have to go to somebody and the country could use less people. But Covid is known to cause heart issues in young kids who can't be vaccinated yet and I don't want to ever jeopardize a child. Full vaccination significantly protect you, but all vaccines show diminished effectiveness against Delta, compared to other versions of the virus. It's likely rare, but it's a thing and I don't ever want to lead to a sick kiddo. 

This will be lone post on this topic.

Back to weather - two months until we will be in full fall (aside from some hot days here or there)! 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

The issue is if you're asymptomatic you can still spread to others. I couldn't give a shit less about an adult who dies who decided not to get a proven vaccine because Darwin awards have to go to somebody and the country could use less people. But Covid is known to cause heart issues in young kids who can't be vaccinated yet and I don't want to ever jeopardize a child. Full vaccination significantly protect you, but all vaccines show diminished effectiveness against Delta, compared to other versions of the virus. It's likely rare, but it's a thing and I don't ever want to lead to a sick kiddo. 

This will be lone post on this topic.

Back to weather - two months until we will be in full fall (aside from some hot days here or there)! 

Can't Wait!