TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Trough just keeps "regenerating" on the MR gfs. Its not sharp but a great Ridge Block. Blue Florida. Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Not often you see that kind of blocking pattern in summer. I will relish every minute of it. The ridge asserted itself a bit more into the 200's. Totally different look than the 0 and 6Z. With a new trough pressing down from the north and the ride limited to just more of a Northeast Atlantic ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The ridge asserted itself a bit more into the 200's. By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. Will be interesting to see how that pattern evolves and how far onshore that ridge axis can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: By then there will have been days upon days of cool temperatures and sub-60 dewpoints. Oh no doubt. I was doing PBP but its all good news on the GFS. We would almost forget what real summer feels like by the end of next week. And like I added to the other post, its more of a Northern position ridge so frankly I am not afraid of that. Just need to find rain somehow though. The new trough is appearing to try and sweep in for the following weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh no doubt. I was doing PBP but its all good news on the GFS. We would almost forget what real summer feels like by the end of next week. And like I added to the other post, its more of a Northern position ridge so frankly I am not afraid of that. Just need to find rain somehow though. The new trough is appearing to try and sweep in for the following weekend. That is a well defined frontal boundary. Maybe if it stalls out we can get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: That is a well defined frontal boundary. Maybe if it stalls out we can get some rain. If we have to wait until then I will be in D1 and down at the bank to borrow money for the water bill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If we have to wait until then I will be in D1 and down at the bank to borrow money for the water bill. 8/7 precip. Definitely not a good look for many, except a bullseye very close to a certain location: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: 8/7 precip. Definitely not a good look for many, except a bullseye very close to a certain location: The Harrisburg Susky rapids. Just have to hope convection related stuff saves those that want water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Let's hope for this type of weather coming up sets up in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Let's hope for this type of weather coming up sets up in winter. If this sets up in winter: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 So out in fantasy land, the ridge trying to be more Northern positioned puts the kibosh on PA hot weather like it was showing earlier. Some near 90 temps but nothing like the 100 degree temps forecasted at 6Z. Bowling ball troughs keep coming out of Canada and keep the ridge at bay. No sign of a ridge setting up for us. It will probably be back and forth though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: So out in fantasy land, the ridge trying to be more Northern positioned puts the kibosh on PA hot weather like it was showing earlier. Some near 90 temps but nothing like the 100 degree temps forecasted at 6Z. Bowling ball troughs keep coming out of Canada and keep the ridge at bay. No sign of a ridge setting up for us. It will probably be back and forth though. Same old, same old. Pattern we’ve had all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 90 on the nose at 1 p.m. Thankfully there's no humidity so it's not too bad in the shade. And in 2-3 weeks we'll really start noticing the sun strength difference midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Same old, same old. Pattern we’ve had all summer. Yep. I am surprised it backed off with no sign of it anymore. Ridge back in the west and Atlantic ridge pushed back again. From highs in the 100's back to the mid 80's. Maybe too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yep. I am surprised it backed off with no sign of it anymore. Ridge back in the west and Atlantic ridge pushed back again. From highs in the 100's back to the mid 80's. Maybe too fast. Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep. I am surprised it backed off with no sign of it anymore. Ridge back in the west and Atlantic ridge pushed back again. From highs in the 100's back to the mid 80's. Maybe too fast. Also, if the CMC puts any ridge close to us the first weekend of August, it won’t be the Atlantic ridge but the Midwest one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z. Some do, but some also pay to eat at Old Country Buffet so, ya know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Some do, but some also pay to eat at Old Country Buffet so, ya know. Do you know a way to get it free? Please let us know :-). (Said in jest, I do not eat at buffets) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: Some do, but some also pay to eat at Old Country Buffet so, ya know. God, I hope buffets are largely a casualty of covid. Places where you can not only increase your risk of getting covid, but increase your risk of death if you do get covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Don’t some people swear by the 0z/12z and consider the 6z/18z useless? I don’t really see it that way, but the runs that seem to bring the heat are almost always 6z/18z. I do not buy those thought processes. I do buy that it comes out so often that our opinions can be clouded by all the swings. FWIW, 0Z had the same heat as 6Z as to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I do not buy those thought processes. I do buy that it comes out so often that our opinions can be clouded by all the swings. FWIW, 0Z had the same heat as 6Z as to today. I don’t buy them either, but devil’s advocate and all. And yes, I do think the two overnight GFS runs were almost identical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 86 here at 1:30. 90 is probable but not assured now. Temps have stalled a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Oh boy...CDC announcements coming in 75 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh boy...CDC announcements coming in 75 min. Covid cases in PA have taken back off (basically 1,000 today - six times the month's daliy average). Delta is gonna ravage the unvaccinated areas of this state (I can name counties, but I'll be nice) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Covid cases in PA have taken back off (basically 1,000 today - six times the month's daliy average). Delta is gonna ravage the unvaccinated areas of this state (I can name counties, but I'll be nice) Most of CTP, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 just hit 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: just hit 90 Do you agree with me it doesn't feel that bad today? Maybe it's the lack of humidity, breeze and the fact I haven't had to be in the sun itself but did some weeding at lunch and it wasn't too bad IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Do you agree with me it doesn't feel that bad today? Maybe it's the lack of humidity, breeze and the fact I haven't had to be in the sun itself but did some weeding at lunch and it wasn't too bad IMO. absolutely. It doesn't feel bad at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 24 minutes ago, canderson said: Covid cases in PA have taken back off (basically 1,000 today - six times the month's daliy average). Delta is gonna ravage the unvaccinated areas of this state (I can name counties, but I'll be nice) Franklin is one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 27, 2021 Share Posted July 27, 2021 2 hours ago, TimB84 said: Meh, still day 12 fantasy land as far as I’m concerned. 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: Upper air pattern as depicted by the GFS doesnt inspire a ton of confidence out in la la land, but from 8/6 and beyond it does try to back in to the west and become a feature to contend with. 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: I felt sentimental as during the winter its a regular contributor. Most of the MR models are talking 7-10 days of cooler weather so I am taking that as the big news right now and thought it fun to see so many 40's on it. The GFS and Euro have been building the ridge over us in fantasy land for weeks now and they both keep pushing it back so personally I am waiting until its within 200 hours before too much fretting. With that said, if it takes getting near a ridge to get rain we may have to do it. The cool depictions are too dry. Ugh I know, I completely agree and am rarely one to tout anything beyond like 5-7 days out. In fact, I basically pay no mind to the spin-the-wheel potion of the model runs but alas we all have moments of weakness haha. Sure enough, 12z GFS changes things yet again. I will give myself ten lashings for jumping the gun on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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