Central PA - Summer 2021

[Bubbler86]

30 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The other team still has all 3 timeouts, but we’re approaching the two minute warning on big heat.

Being July 26th, Team 100 was just flagged for delay of game. 

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Being July 26th, Team 100 was just flagged for delay of game. 

Oh right, isn’t this the magic date where the tipping point is reached between “dates where MDT has hit 100” and “dates where MDT hasn’t hit 100”?

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Oh right, isn’t this the magic date where the tipping point is reached between “dates where MDT has hit 100” and “dates where MDT hasn’t hit 100”?

This is when it became statistically less likely but not a shocker if it does.  Aug 15th is the date where it becomes very unlikely. 

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is when it became statistically less likely but not a shocker if it does.  Aug 15th is the date where it becomes very unlikely. 

That sounds about right. Of the 18 dates Pittsburgh has hit 100, 8 of them are still to come. Not sure how much I believe the 101, 102, 100, 97 from 9/5-9/8/1881, but that’s what’s in the record book.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

That sounds about right. Of the 18 dates Pittsburgh has hit 100, 8 of them are still to come. Not sure how much I believe the 101, 102, 100, 97 from 9/5-9/8/1881, but that’s what’s in the record book.

MDT's 100's are a bit similar in that after Aug 15, of the 4 days that hit 100, 2 are in 1953 so really only 3 times since 1888.  1953, 1973 and 1983.  Seeing that it is not 2023, on Aug 15 I am going from my current unlikely stance to officially punting on 100's.  

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

The other team still has all 3 timeouts, but we’re approaching the two minute warning on big heat.

Plenty of time for any Steelers opponent to go the length of the field, trust me. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Good rains Lancaster City, south and east.


.

Yes, a good part of southern Lanco had rains in the afternoon and a 2nd round in the evening. 

[Itstrainingtime]

54 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Being July 26th, Team 100 was just flagged for delay of game. 

Penalty refused, 2nd down.   

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Penalty refused, 2nd down.   

Refusing the penalty does negate the foul, it just keeps the ball where it is :-). 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Refusing the penalty does negate the foul, it just keeps the ball where it is :-). 

My strategy was to try and advance to fall as quickly as possible. LOL

Talk about sticky, dew is still a sultry 70 here. I knew it would be hot today but was hoping my dew would be more in the lower 60s by this point. 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My strategy was to try and advance to fall as quickly as possible. LOL

Talk about sticky, dew is still a sultry 70 here. I knew it would be hot today but was hoping my dew would be more in the lower 60s by this point. 

LOL.  My strategy is to keep it in our Qb's hands (GFS) and run the clock on on 100 chances.  

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My strategy was to try and advance to fall as quickly as possible. LOL

Talk about sticky, dew is still a sultry 70 here. I knew it would be hot today but was hoping my dew would be more in the lower 60s by this point. 

PS, on your sticky comment, that lends credence to some possible surprise southern LSV showers later today.    Just need a little energy to wrong it out. 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

PS, on your sticky comment, that lends credence to some possible surprise southern LSV showers later today.    Just need a little energy to wrong it out. 

Another southern Lanco/York jackpot? 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Another southern Lanco/York jackpot? 

Not brave enough to make that prediction but not a slam dunk dry day either. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Weekend recap:  Some spritzes Saturday night, good for getting .01" into the books.  Yesterday, despite the big puffies to my south all day, never had a storm go overhead, nada.  I did find a gauge on WU down near the southern Lanc/Chester border that recorded 4.2" though.  Also got in lots of swimming and booze, so that's a plus.  It looks dry for most of the foreseeable future, get ready for the crunchy grass.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 hours ago, Storm Clouds said:

I have been visiting my grandmother in Williamsport this weekend and for the past 30 minutes, I have been watching lightning flashes to my south! I looked at the radar to see what was close and the only storms I found were over 2 hours away all the way in southern York county! Unbelievable how far you can see lightning like this…truly amazing! ⚡️⚡️

How 'bout it!?  I noted this a while back, in fact it was in regards to storms up above Williamsport that I was seeing down here.  It's always fascinating to see how far lightning can reflect through the night sky.

 

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

That sounds about right. Of the 18 dates Pittsburgh has hit 100, 8 of them are still to come. Not sure how much I believe the 101, 102, 100, 97 from 9/5-9/8/1881, but that’s what’s in the record book.

Yeah sometimes you can't help but raise an eyebrow at some of the super old records.  Hard not to think that some of the attention to detail with observing or just general accuracy would be impaired at times.  I mean, 1881!?  C'mon haha.  I just can't picture things as always being on point back then but perhaps that's just my recency bias showing.  I envision a man in a top hat checking some old instrumentation through his monocle ha.  Either way, that's what's in the books!

[TimB]

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah sometimes you can't help but raise an eyebrow at some of the super old records.  Hard not to think that some of the attention to detail with observing or just general accuracy would be impaired at times.  I mean, 1881!?  C'mon haha.  I just can't picture things as always being on point back then but perhaps that's just my recency bias showing.  I envision a man in a top hat checking some old instrumentation through his monocle ha.  Either way, that's what's in the books!

At PIT, the period of record is 1871-2021, with 1948-2021 being at the airport, so it’s literally divided almost in half.

The number of top 10 months that occurred prior to 1948 is as follows:

Jan-7. 
Feb-8. 
Mar-7. 
Apr-7. 
May-7. 
Jun-10. 
Jul-9. 
Aug-7. 
Sep-10. 
Oct-7. 
Nov-5. 
Dec-7. 
 

That’s 91 out of 120 record warm months in half of the period of record, and only one month with less than 7. That’s why I’m skeptical of PIT’s data. 
 

Notably, I don’t think MDT has this issue.

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Another southern Lanco/York jackpot? 

This SPC Map I just saw covers my thoughts well though I would say 30% chance vs. 10 and maybe a tad higher into PA.

 

[TimB]

We don’t need a heat wave anyway, that’ll make the upcoming return to masking quite uncomfortable.

[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

We don’t need a heat wave anyway, that’ll make the upcoming return to masking quite uncomfortable.

I was in two stores yesterday that require masks for everyone.  And the one is always quite warm so I agree it is indeed not comfortable.  If the CDC throws down the gauntlet I think most stores will follow.   There is actually a store in Waynesboro that mocks you IF you come in with a mask. Says covid is a farce, etc....not going to name them as I still like going there despite the owners strange behavior.

MD just announced that they strongly advise masks for kids that are not vaxxed which is all elementary kids.    Once it gets colder I think it will be less of an issue and people will get used to them again as needed.  

 

 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

At PIT, the period of record is 1871-2021, with 1948-2021 being at the airport, so it’s literally divided almost in half.

The number of top 10 months that occurred prior to 1948 is as follows:

Jan-7. 
Feb-8. 
Mar-7. 
Apr-7. 
May-7. 
Jun-10. 
Jul-9. 
Aug-7. 
Sep-10. 
Oct-7. 
Nov-5. 
Dec-7. 
 

That’s 91 out of 120 record warm months in half of the period of record, and only one month with less than 7. That’s why I’m skeptical of PIT’s data. 
 

Notably, I don’t think MDT has this issue.

Wow great work here Tim, quite the compelling case you put together.  Now, could it just be that the prior observing site was simply located in a warmer location?  Is the airport more rural?  I'm not familiar with PIT's history.  Either way, great job.  This is the type of stuff I come here for, love it.

 

31 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

We don’t need a heat wave anyway, that’ll make the upcoming return to masking quite uncomfortable.

Haha yes, yes it would.  But I can assure you there will be no future masking for this guy, just done with all of it.  I don't even think my wife and I have masks anymore at this point, lost 'em all or threw 'em out.  Could probably scrounge one up somewhere but anyway......moving along.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was in two stores yesterday that require masks for everyone.  And the one is always quite warm so I agree it is indeed not comfortable.  If the CDC throws down the gauntlet I think most stores will follow.   There is actually a store in Waynesboro that mocks you IF you come in with a mask. Says covid is a farce, etc....not going to name them as I still like going there despite the owners strange behavior.

MD just announced that they strongly advise masks for kids that are not vaxxed which is all elementary kids.    Once it gets colder I think it will be less of an issue and people will get used to them again as needed.  

 

 

 

I can't emphasize this enough for the bolded points above, NO.  

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Haha yes, yes it would.  But I can assure you there will be no future masking for this guy, just done with all of it.  I don't even think my wife and I have masks anymore at this point, lost 'em all or threw 'em out.  Could probably scrounge one up somewhere but anyway......moving along.

Me with you on masking. I am done as well we played this game for over a year and it did nothing. I am fully vax and don't feel I need to mask up. Over it for sure. Those that want to wear one wear it, it is all good. 

[TimB]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Wow great work here Tim, quite the compelling case you put together.  Now, could it just be that the prior observing site was simply located in a warmer location?  Is the airport more rural?  I'm not familiar with PIT's history.  Either way, great job.  This is the type of stuff I come here for, love it.

It’s very possible that there’s both a UHI and elevation component. Downtown is at about 800 feet, the airport is at about 1200 feet and 15+ miles west of downtown. That’s why I can’t just dismiss that old data entirely, which it’s my understanding was taken at “various locations in the city” (I should know where and when, but I’m afraid I don’t). And I guess that’s the rub here. It’s not necessarily that I think the data is invalid, but I don’t think it’s all that useful to compare the data for the reasons listed above.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I can't emphasize this enough for the bolded points above, NO.  

LOL,  I think its a forgone conclusion that kids under 12, and maybe all kids,  are wearing masks going back to school.  Whether teachers enforce it all day will be the question.  I know for adults it is a bit of a personal decision but if you look at a county like Franklin, with only 1/3 of the folks vaxxed,  its a bit worrisome. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just now, TimB84 said:

It’s very possible that there’s both a UHI and elevation component. Downtown is at about 800 feet, the airport is at about 1200 feet and 15+ miles west of downtown. That’s why I can’t just dismiss that old data entirely, which it’s my understanding was taken at “various locations in the city” (I should know where and when, but I’m afraid I don’t). And I guess that’s the rub here. It’s not necessarily that I think the data is invalid, but I don’t think it’s all that useful to compare the data for the reasons listed above.

Ah, that makes perfect sense then.  If the old locations were sited downtown then it's not really surprising they would have most of the warmth records.  I mean, I guess it's a bit surprising that it's to that extent, but as you said the elevation and UHI components are certainly the driving factors.  Again, good stuff.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

LOL,  I think its a forgone conclusion that kids under 12, and maybe all kids,  are wearing masks going back to school.  Whether teachers enforce it all day will be the question.  I know for adults it is a bit of a personal decision but if you look at a county like Franklin, with only 1/3 of the folks vaxxed,  its a bit worrisome. 

Our school district, Palmyra, is not masking. 

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Ah, that makes perfect sense then.  If the old locations were sited downtown then it's not really surprising they would have most of the warmth records.  I mean, I guess it's a bit surprising that it's to that extent, but as you said the elevation and UHI components are certainly the driving factors.  Again, good stuff.

To the extent that the elevation thing could actually even negate the UHI effect, which I would assume was rather minimal in 1881. As I said, it’s more an issue of the location of official weather observations being moved from one place to a vastly different place. (But isn’t that true at MDT too?)

[Itstrainingtime]

85 at noon, lots of clouds up there. Doubt seriously I'll get as high as I did yesterday. (which is fine with me)

I was gonna bite and jump in on the vaccination/masking discussion...meh, I better not. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

LOL,  I think its a forgone conclusion that kids under 12, and maybe all kids,  are wearing masks going back to school.  Whether teachers enforce it all day will be the question.  I know for adults it is a bit of a personal decision but if you look at a county like Franklin, with only 1/3 of the folks vaxxed,  its a bit worrisome. 

Really??  Maybe I'm just out of the loop a bit on all this but I just assumed kids would be going back to school completely as normal this year.  I mean, I live in one of the largest suburban-type districts in the state (Hempfield) and I don't believe they are requiring any masks of kids this year.  Are there school districts in some places that are still talking about not being in-person this year?  Again, that would be shocking to me.  Well, save anywhere outside of San Francisco haha.