Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Can anyone think of a time when a stalled frontal boundary over us meets tropical moisture that hasn’t devolved into an epic disaster for at least some portions of our area? I’d tackle it like bubbler and prepare for Lee meets Ivan part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Someone better than me will have to do the data crunch. I like numbers about as much as @Voyager does cold weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Someone better than me will have to do the data crunch. I like numbers about as much as [mention=317]Voyager[/mention] does cold weather. Who isn’t prone to flooding here ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Long range HRRR radar and qpf. God have mercy. At 48 hours 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Have Pittsburgh meteorologists. 5.9” vs 0.70”. Harrisburg somehow gets slammed every model, doesn’t matter which probably is a pretty strong signal for trouble. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Have Pittsburgh meteorologists. 5.9” vs 0.70”. Harrisburg somehow gets slammed every model, doesn’t matter which probably is a pretty strong signal for trouble. . We will pass on 6 inches of rain. Our city and neighborhoods can barely handle 2 inches of rain. If this was snow the second outcome of .7 would definitely be the winner for KPITT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 0Z 3k has shifted the max bullseye about 20 miles east. Looks like Dillsburg is ground zero now with 11.68". Meanwhile I hit the casino slots with 7.77". I'm glad Canderson brought up the wind action. The low is still progged to be around 1003 at its closest approach. NHC shows that peak winds at each forecast point do not drop below 30mph and in fact slowly begin to go back up as the low passes to our east. I do think that wind will play a part in exacerbating the rainfall by uprooting trees that are in soaked ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 hour ago, canderson said: We should do a rainfall contest. Include the following cities: Harrisburg Lancaster York Tamaqua Williamsport State College Chambersburg Clearfield I thiiiink that covers the whole group basically without getting too lengthy. Lol…I am not participating unless Pillow is included as one of the locations…! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Lol…I am not participating unless Pillow is included as one of the locations…!We need to add wind also so when candersan gets a a 43mph guest that takes a shingle and downs every tree within a half mile after 8” of Rain he can claim total victory while losing power for 2 days. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Harrisburg all time September daily rainfall record set during Lee is 7.17”. I thought I was going bout on a limb earlier in the week comparing this to Lee. I don’t even know anymore, but if Harrisburg gets 9”+ in 24 hours it’s going to be real bad. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 How often does the ukmet throw out 6”-8” rain totals?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Canadian same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 GFS same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 11 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Harrisburg all time September daily rainfall record set during Lee is 7.17”. I thought I was going bout on a limb earlier in the week comparing this to Lee. I don’t even know anymore, but if Harrisburg gets 9”+ in 24 hours it’s going to be real bad. . Thanks for posting those maps. Looks like all models agree pretty well right now. Going to say 6 to 10 is a real possibility around Harrisburg, Adams, York and few other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Thanks for posting those maps. Looks like all models agree pretty well right now. Going to say 6 to 10 is a real possibility around Harrisburg, Adams, York and few other places. I was skeptical until every model I saw seemed to be zero in on that stationary front over us And I’m assuming some enhanced lift from something else. Looking at simulated radar Wednesday night is going to be bad. Really bad if some hi res models are correct. Lee’s flooding hit during the day. I fear a nighttime massive flood event. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Boats please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol…I am not participating unless Pillow is included as one of the locations…! I remove myself from this contest, as I have had my share of downpours and mud cleanup this summer. I hope this is not another Lee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Thanks for the maps JNS I don't have the warm and fuzzies about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 We may be headed towards a high risk flooding day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I was off the grid for a few days -- weddings, fantasy drafts, golf tournaments -- you name it. Busy busy. Actually, we had to travel down to a wedding in Paoli on Friday and some nasty storms had cut through the Downingtown area and did a lot of damage along the Route 30 corridor out there. Lots of trees down on the highway causing quite the back-ups. Welp, looks like we are in the bullseye for Ida's remnants. Everyone ready for some rain? Fire up those sump pumps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I would think (hope?) the Susquehanna should fare OK since most of the watershed will not see much if anything. It's the small and mid size stuff that could be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 I would think (hope?) the Susquehanna should fare OK since most of the watershed will not see much if anything. It's the small and mid size stuff that could be problematic.Yeah, not much rain expected further north so Susquehanna should be ok.Creeks and streams will have major issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Do you guys have better discussions? This is KPIT's latest, and honestly I think it is flat lazy and unacceptable given the uncertainties and impactfulness of this event. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rain from the northern quadrant of Ida will overspread the OH Valley tonight and continue through most of Wednesday as Ida moves northeastward through Appalachia. Ida will provide continued moisture advection against the aforementioned cold front and this will pose a flood threat to locations under the flash flood watch. Ida is expected to pivot eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, and thus will generate a gradient of heavy precipitation across portions of the region. This gradient, which models are still trying to nail down, will mean those north of it won`t see much rain, and those south, could see in excess of 3 inches. Rain will come to an end after dusk on Wednesday as the remnants of Ida depart eastward. The area will dry out and cool down on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, Festus said: I would think (hope?) the Susquehanna should fare OK since most of the watershed will not see much if anything. It's the small and mid size stuff that could be problematic. Hershey probably floods out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Hershey probably floods out again. co-worker and i were just talking about the Hershey/Hummelstown area. And i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Do you guys have better discussions? This is KPIT's latest, and honestly I think it is flat lazy and unacceptable given the uncertainties and impactfulness of this event. CTP’s discussion is below. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: CTP’s discussion is below. Thoughts? Honestly this has been a longstanding issue as far back as I can remember with PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: Honestly this has been a longstanding issue as far back as I can remember with PIT. I mean I understand there’s a lot more confidence in a major event in CTP’s area than there is in ours, but I feel like our discussion wouldn’t be any more robust even if such totals were expected in Pittsburgh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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