Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This is also a great point. I think a +8 is unlikely - I agree with Canderson, it's only going to happen with warm nights. Just using the 6Z GFS and eyeballing the numbers, MDT would be around a -12 departure going into Sept 8th. That alone is an incredible number to have that high of a departure (negative) over more than a week. So MDT would need to average a +25 departure the rest of the month to counteract it. Again, the GFS could be very wrong so just doing numbers with what we have today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: To me, the plus 8 for September idea is going to come down to dewpoints. Average lows really start falling in September, if we have higher dews we'll have warm nights and that would get us there. I see where your head is, but we really start to gain in darkness dept, and while Sept is a transitional month, the sun (or loss of) is a constant, and mostly why I think its a tall task to achieve (especially our week 1 early fall preview has legs (and cool nights as currently modeled). Even if it corrects +3-+5 as we all know is possible). . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Your output is a good example of what I was referencing. You had no negative departures and still just barely made it. A few days of -5 to -10 departures and I think it is pretty tough. The GFS pretty much ends hopes right away with several pretty big negative departure days though it could be wrong of course. and to your point, if week 1 is normal/neg, thats a big dent in the ability to achieve +8 with Septembers ability to have big swings either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Just using the 6Z GFS and eyeballing the numbers, MDT would be around a -12 departure going into Sept 8th. That along is an incredible number to have that high of a departure (negative) over roe than a week. So MDT would need to average a +25 departure the rest of the month to counteract it. Again, the GFS could be very wrong so just doing numbers with what we have today. Your point is a good one, though I calculated the number needed from 9/8 to 9/30 in your scenario to be about +14: +8*30 = 240 -12*7 = -84 240 + 84 = 324 324 / 23 = ~14 Still extremely hard to do over a 23 day span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Your point is a good one, though I calculated the number needed from 9/8 to 9/30 in your scenario to be about +14: +8*30 = 240 -12*7 = -84 240 + 84 = 324 324 / 23 = ~14 Still extremely hard to do over a 23 day span. I did not do the math for real but I was calculating on over a week. I think I mentioned Sept 8th but actually did the math in my head for 1.5 weeks or the end of the Sept 10th week (end of the current GFS run) so adjusting with your math using my eyeballed -12 which may not be right but was using it for a point: +8*30 = 240 -12*10 = -120 240 + 120 = 360 360 / 20 = ~18 So I still over stated quite a bit on the -25. That is what I get for posting and not doing math. I think if we just did to Sept 7th, MDT may be a bit over -12 departure with those low 70's highs and low 50's lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I did not do the math but I was calculating on over a week. I think I mentioned Sept 8th but actually did the math for 1.5 weeks or the end of the Sept 10th week so adjusting with your math using my eyeballed -12 which may not be right but was using it for a point: +8*30 = 240 -12*10 = -120 240 + 120 = 360 360 / 20 = ~18 So I still over stated quite a bit on the -25. That is what I get for posting and not doing math. I think if we just did to Sept 7th, MDT may be a bit over -12 departure with those low 70's highs and low 50's lows. We probably shouldn’t be debating something that will almost certainly not happen anyway. Not sure about MDT, but there is exactly ONE September here that achieved a +8 departure (+12.4 to be exact), and it’s probably the most suspect weather record I’ve ever seen. I will never believe that September 1881 had the same average temperature as July 2020 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: We probably shouldn’t be debating something that will almost certainly not happen anyway. Not sure about MDT, but there is exactly ONE September here that achieved a +8 departure (+12.4 to be exact), and it’s probably the most suspect weather record I’ve ever seen. I will never believe that September 1881 had the same average temperature as July 2020 here. It's interesting banter though probably annoying to many. Point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Your point is a good one, though I calculated the number needed from 9/8 to 9/30 in your scenario to be about +14: +8*30 = 240 -12*7 = -84 240 + 84 = 324 324 / 23 = ~14 Still extremely hard to do over a 23 day span. thanks for doing the math.... thats exactly how I was looking at it knowing that week 2-5 departures would need to be rather tall...even if Bubbles -11 corrects to -6-7 (GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 84 at 11:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It's interesting banter though probably annoying to many. Point taken. I think it’s good stuff, personally. But I feel like it might be much like debating whether September will be above, at, or below normal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: I think it’s good stuff, personally. But I feel like it might be much like debating whether September will be above, at, or below normal snowfall. Above normal for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Above normal for sure. I can tell you one thing. It won’t be below normal! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: I think it’s good stuff, personally. But I feel like it might be much like debating whether September will be above, at, or below normal snowfall. How about above normal snowfall with a +8 departure? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: I can tell you one thing. It won’t be below normal! Sept continues to be the only month that MDT has never recorded at least a T. Maybe we can break that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: 84 at 11:00am. 85 here - feeling like a mid 90s kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: How about above normal snowfall with a +8 departure? An interesting point. In theory, a T would be enough for that to happen. Problem is, to get the +8 departure, the part of the month where a T is even conceivable would have to be hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Sept continues to be the only month that MDT has never recorded at least a T. Maybe we can break that this year. I feel like I did the research on 9/23/1989 at PIT and concluded that the T we recorded on that day was likely real. So the bar is higher for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: An interesting point. In theory, a T would be enough for that to happen. Problem is, to get the +8 departure, the part of the month where a T is even conceivable would have to be hot. -12 the first week, +20 the Next 18 days, -15 the last 3 days with a T. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 85 here - feeling like a mid 90s kind of day. 82 here at 11:15. 90 definitely reachable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 86. heating up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 85 here. 90 definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 12 minutes ago, sauss06 said: 86. heating up quickly The constant cicada sounds makes it feel ever hotter as well. Just checked the HRRR and fast heat rise is in there but temps level off a lot between 12-4 only going up a 2-3 degrees. Let's see how that works out as if its not correct we should see some mid 90's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The constant cicada sounds makes it feel ever hotter as well. Just checked the HRRR and fast heat rise is in there but temps level off a lot between 12-4 only going up a 2-3 degrees. Let's see how that works out as if its not correct we should see some mid 90's today. 88.4 here - temps better level off soon or we will reach the upper 90s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: To me, the plus 8 for September idea is going to come down to dewpoints. Average lows really start falling in September, if we have higher dews we'll have warm nights and that would get us there. 8+ September?..wow..most of the days would be in the 80's or 90's with lows near 70..Never happen..Usually warm Septembers are +2 to 3 range..Every September features cool downs when lows dip into the 50's..sometime 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted August 25, 2021 Author Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 minute ago, KEITH L.I said: 8+ September?..wow..most of the days would be in the 80's or 90's with lows near 70..Never happen..Usually warm Septembers are +2 to 3 range..Every September features cool downs when lows dip into the 50's..sometime 40's Yes, I agree with you and others. In no way do I think it will happen, my only argument was IF it COULD happen, it would get there with very warm minimums. I'm with you and others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 88 turning to 90 soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 88.4 here - temps better level off soon or we will reach the upper 90s today. Make an interesting observation afternoon. I do not have a dog in this show other than thinking the HRRR dropped the ball if you get above 93 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 With my +8, I should specify I miscalculated … I think we very likely end up there with low temps but misfactored the highs. They prob are kore like 2 above which cuts down the high lows, my bad for all the confusion. I’m a journalist, not a math wizard … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: 88 turning to 90 soon. MDT, LNS and York all right there with you at this hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, paweather said: 88 turning to 90 soon. just clicked to 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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