Itstrainingtime Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I am trying to soften the market for him so the Mav's can swing a deal and bring him to big D. Doc seems intent on wanting to keep him. Probably a battle within the top brass right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Its not heating up so fast today, no sun. A shortwave coming later today is going to hit the warm front and create a ton of shear and go kaboom, methinks. This setup doesn't require full sun (we'll still hit 90 today before all's said and done, probably). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 And tomorrow will be a clone copy. A good chance Wednesday sees significant severe weather and damaging winds. As long as these shortwaves keep coming like they have with the warm front parked, we're all in prime location for supercell activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Doc seems intent on wanting to keep him. Probably a battle within the top brass right now. It may tough with all the folks saying he should not enter the locker room again (Magic especially) but positive for you guys if you pull it off. He is an all star talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, canderson said: And tomorrow will be a clone copy. A good chance Wednesday sees significant severe weather and damaging winds. As long as these shortwaves keep coming like they have with the warm front parked, we're all in prime location for supercell activity. The NWS AFD was definitely down with tomorrow. They suggested the shortwave today was weakening. I hope you right though with less severe and more showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Have not done a temp update in a while but 82 at 11. Definitely have a shot at low 90's if the sun stays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, canderson said: A shortwave coming later today is going to hit the warm front and create a ton of shear and go kaboom, methinks. This setup doesn't require full sun (we'll still hit 90 today before all's said and done, probably). less sun....less lift for that shear you find so dear..... but in truth, yeah you can get it done w/ what you described. Just may be more rain and less kabooms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, canderson said: And tomorrow will be a clone copy. A good chance Wednesday sees significant severe weather and damaging winds. As long as these shortwaves keep coming like they have with the warm front parked, we're all in prime location for supercell activity. aren't you full of good news today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yes, I believe the study concluded that as well, minor but provable downstream effects. Your intuition is on point yinzer. You aren't kidding, hard to find a lot of support for the LSV for today. It may by a @mahantango#1 special, or even more likely according to some of the Mesos is a Williamsport jackpot. We don't need downpours that result in several inches of rain. With the cloud cover maybe today will be a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Not optimal having that trough up in the N/W. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 Cells just starting to fire now in the central mountains, there's also one west of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Cells just starting to fire now in the central mountains, there's also one west of Harrisburg. Early again. Just walked outside and am not particularly liking the look of the scattered cloud cover. Its got that "fair" look to it with not a ton of development going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Early again. Just walked outside and am not particularly liking the look of the scattered cloud cover. Its got that "fair" look to it with no a ton of development going on. Agreed. I think today is a miss type of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 I don't know...I have a lot of sun with large towers shooting up already. Also, my wind is E/SE which I seem to remember from history can be a bad omen for severe weather. I know very little about this, but I'm riding with Canderson. I think there's going to be a lot of severe popping this afternoon. I really, really hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I don't know...I have a lot of sun with large towers shooting up already. Also, my wind is E/SE which I seem to remember from history can be a bad omen for severe weather. I know very little about this, but I'm riding with Canderson. I think there's going to be a lot of severe popping this afternoon. I really, really hope I'm wrong. SPC thinks you’re right. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131648Z - 131815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms developing will pose a risk for damaging winds and severe hail this afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing has given way to widespread cumulus development across the region. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F amid rich low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F. This has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg being analyzed across the region, and approaching 2000-2500 J/kg across portions of south-central Pennsylvania. Isolated storms are already beginning to develop, with a severe/maturing convective cell noted in central New York. This trend is expected to continue, with scattered storms expected across the region by early to mid afternoon. With effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, storms should organize into a mixture of multicells and supercells, posing a risk for mainly damaging winds and some severe hail, and a tornado or two is possible. Given these trends, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for the region in the next hour or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I don't know...I have a lot of sun with large towers shooting up already. Also, my wind is E/SE which I seem to remember from history can be a bad omen for severe weather. I know very little about this, but I'm riding with Canderson. I think there's going to be a lot of severe popping this afternoon. I really, really hope I'm wrong. I feel it for areas north and west of me. Not sure about H-Burg but would it surprise anyone if they got another 1-2" today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Sun is now starting to shine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not optimal having that trough up in the N/W. The ridge sure does win on this run. But maybe not decisively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: The ridge sure does win on this run. But maybe not decisively. If you compare to 6Z its a pretty big change. We went from being at the bottom of a trough to being in the middle of a double barrel ridge stretching from the GOM to Canada. Still not hyper heat but very, very dry look. Lots of westerlies I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: If you compare to 6Z its a pretty big change. We went from being at the bottom of a trough to being in the middle of a double barrel ridge stretching from the GOM to Canada. Still not hyper heat but very, very dry look. Back to drought season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Back to drought season! LOL. Not betting on 200+ hour GFS yet. Just model discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If you compare to 6Z its a pretty big change. We went from being at the bottom of a trough to being in the middle of a double barrel ridge stretching from the GOM to Canada. Still not hyper heat but very, very dry look. Lots of westerlies I would think. Quite dry indeed. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the north central US gets hot to very hot in the mid to long range. I still think that means a wide range of possibilities out here, but if you look at the 200+ hour range of the CMC, there’s a definite trend and it’s not in the right direction unless your name is @Voyager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL. Not betting on 200+ hour GFS yet. Just model discussion. Yeah. I figured as much this is just talk right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 13, 2021 Author Share Posted July 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I feel it for areas north and west of me. Not sure about H-Burg but would it surprise anyone if they got another 1-2" today? As of now, there's nothing to suggest on radar that you're wrong. Cells are forming to our NW and moving NE. There's nothing yet to our south that would move up into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, TimB84 said: SPC thinks you’re right. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 131648Z - 131815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms developing will pose a risk for damaging winds and severe hail this afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing has given way to widespread cumulus development across the region. Surface temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F amid rich low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s F. This has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE values of 1500 J/kg being analyzed across the region, and approaching 2000-2500 J/kg across portions of south-central Pennsylvania. Isolated storms are already beginning to develop, with a severe/maturing convective cell noted in central New York. This trend is expected to continue, with scattered storms expected across the region by early to mid afternoon. With effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, storms should organize into a mixture of multicells and supercells, posing a risk for mainly damaging winds and some severe hail, and a tornado or two is possible. Given these trends, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for the region in the next hour or so. The HRRR looks ominous for the MSV and USV in my opinion. They mentioned Supercell and that is what I get from the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR looks ominous for the MSV and USV in my opinion. They mentioned Supercell and that is what I get from the latest run. Yeah, looks like a Danville/Sunbury special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Quite dry indeed. I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the north central US gets hot to very hot in the mid to long range. I still think that means a wide range of possibilities out here, but if you look at the 200+ hour range of the CMC, there’s a definite trend and it’s not in the right direction unless your name is @Voyager. 110's in Canada seem very possible again. There is a dearth of Red L's on the NE angle of the CMC I just looked at. Seasonable temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 110's in Canada seem very possible again. There is a dearth of Red L's on the NE angle of the CMC I just looked at. Seasonable temps. Just not sure I’m buying a situation where there are 594 heights (disclaimer: in western PA), and it’s sunny and 83 in the mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Just not sure I’m buying a situation where there are 594 heights (disclaimer: in western PA), and it’s sunny and 83 in the mid-afternoon. Total stretch of an explanation but thought I saw a lot of straight west and Northwesterly winds at the surface. Not always a recipe for super heat over here. Dry and seasonably warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted July 13, 2021 Share Posted July 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Total stretch of an explanation but thought I saw a lot of straight west and Northwesterly winds at the surface. Not always a recipe for super heat over here. Dry and seasonably warm. Bingo. Light NNW wind. I knew I was missing something. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now