Central PA - Summer 2021

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah they definitely did better up there and towards Manheim. Of course the real show was down by Quarryville. 

we got pummeled in Akron.  NWS from KLNS says .9, but I guarantee we did better here.  It dumped.  I wouldnt be surprised to hear of 1.5 or 2" amounts near me.  

[canderson]

I hear thunder and see wicked lighting. I hadn’t looked at radar for hours. About to get nailed once again. 

I’m gonna have 10”+ rain in a week. 
 

Edit: looking at radar this is sliding more east than earlier and might be a Lancaster County special and just nip HBG. We’ll see. 

[pasnownut]

On 7/6/2021 at 11:07 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Hmmmmm actually I'm drawing a blank.  Where is that gift shop exactly?  I do love myself a good dinner at that Log Cabin Inn though yum yum.

log cabin is about 1.5 miles before you'd get to that gift shop (now closed again).  BTW that is heading west towards Gaines/Galeton

[canderson]

The historic Maytown is getting the goods right now. @Itstrainingtime

[Blizzard of 93]

27 minutes ago, canderson said:

I hear thunder and see wicked lighting. I hadn’t looked at radar for hours. About to get nailed once again. 

I’m gonna have 10”+ rain in a week. 
 

Edit: looking at radar this is sliding more east than earlier and might be a Lancaster County special and just nip HBG. We’ll see. 

It looks like @Itstrainingtime and @Mount Joy Snowman are going to be the bullseye with this one.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

The historic Maytown is getting the goods right now. @Itstrainingtime

MDT might get a little rain from this 1 as well to add to the surplus.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like @Itstrainingtime and @Mount Joy Snowman are going to be the bullseye with this one.

Yeah if I didn’t know any better I’d say that’s an MCS rolling through the area. Non stop lightning making it hard to sleep here during the witching hour. Should have some nice totals in the gauge come morning. 

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Yeah if I didn’t know any better I’d say that’s an MCS rolling through the area. Non stop lightning making it hard to sleep here during the witching hour. Should have some nice totals in the gauge come morning. 

I hope you get some good rain & eventually some good sleep tonight!

[Cashtown_Coop]

39 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Incredible light show late last night imby...kept me up   2 hours of vivid lightning and thunder with 

2.45" in 75 minutes.  

You were ground zero.  I had .93” in Fairfield 

[sauss06]

14 hours ago, canderson said:

Might need to buy a boat for @sauss06 to get through the city and back to his neighborhood.  

I had left Harrisburg before 3, so i was good 

14 hours ago, canderson said:

Is that it? I just was out helping my neighbor empty water from his garage that’s never ever had water in it before. Water flooded the road, came over the curb, and backed up past a drain into his garage. Wild.  

we ended with 1 1/4" in a short time. my neighbor told me we have had 6" since last Friday. Our ground is really wet. If we get the same today, we're screwed. We had lakes in our streets yesterday.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I hope you get some good rain & eventually some good sleep tonight!

Thank you Blizz haha.  Sleep was decent but rain was only meh.  I only caught the edge of that MCS and added around another quarter inch to my total from yesterday, bringing me to .55" for the day.  I bet The Maytown Man did much better, as the heart of the complex seemed to pass more over him, and well, he just always does better than me ha.  What did you end up with up there?

[Itstrainingtime]

7 hours ago, canderson said:

The historic Maytown is getting the goods right now. @Itstrainingtime

Lightning and thunder woke me up. Constant flashes and several REALLY close strikes. 

7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It looks like @Itstrainingtime and @Mount Joy Snowman are going to be the bullseye with this one.

Not sure I bullseyed as I was too tired to get out of bed.  

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Thank you Blizz haha.  Sleep was decent but rain was only meh.  I only caught the edge of that MCS and added around another quarter inch to my total from yesterday, bringing me to .55" for the day.  I bet The Maytown Man did much better, as the heart of the complex seemed to pass more over him, and well, he just always does better than me ha.  What did you end up with up there?

I got .85" overnight. Total since yesterday morning was 1.12". Total since last Thursday stands at 5.61". 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 hours ago, pasnownut said:

log cabin is about 1.5 miles before you'd get to that gift shop (now closed again).  BTW that is heading west towards Gaines/Galeton

Aaaahhhh okay now that I view it on google's street view I do recall that place.  Where we turn off for my buddy's cabin is a couple miles past there in Watrous, head down Elk Run Road through the Marshlands and deep into the hinterlands from there.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lightning and thunder woke me up. Constant flashes and several REALLY close strikes. 

Not sure I bullseyed as I was too tired to get out of bed.  

I got .85" overnight. Total since yesterday morning was 1.12". Total since last Thursday stands at 5.61". 

Man was that lightning something, just nonstop and we had one strike right overhead that shook the house.  The baby and the dog didn't care for that one haha.  Well you doubled me up yet again, and by the way, for that same period since last Thursday and living just six miles to your east, I've received a grand total of 1.67", wow.  #SummertimeConvection

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man was that lightning something, just nonstop and we had one strike right overhead that shook the house.  The baby and the dog didn't care for that one haha.  Well you doubled me up yet again, and by the way, for that same period since last Thursday and living just six miles to your east, I've received a grand total of 1.67", wow.  #SummertimeConvection

And just to add, go about 6-8 miles NW of my location and they're around 8" since last Thursday. 

[TimB]

@Bubbler86 overnight model runs looked on the dry side but seem to keep the big heat at bay. GFS range now goes to 7/29 so let’s hope we can lock this in.

[mahantango#1]

The high yesterday was 93 and just a trace of rain from a thunderstorm that seemed to disappate just like that.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86 overnight model runs looked on the dry side but seem to keep the big heat at bay. GFS range now goes to 7/29 so let’s hope we can lock this in.

Yes, this part of it is pretty depressing.    I just checked my local USGS water location and we are back down to our driest point ever outside of last summer.  But less heat will be helpful.  CMC was also fairly cool/normal. 

[TimB]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lightning and thunder woke me up. Constant flashes and several REALLY close strikes. 

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Man was that lightning something, just nonstop and we had one strike right overhead that shook the house. 

Yinzerland stands in solidarity with you on this one. Best overnight storm in recent memory out here.

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, this part of it is pretty depressing.    I just checked my local USGS water location and we are back down to our driest point ever outside of last summer.  But less heat will be helpful.  CMC was also fairly cool/normal. 

Sounds like a wide gap between the haves and the have nots in a small area from what I’ve read on here.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Sounds like a wide gap between the haves and the have nots in a small area from what I’ve read on here.

Its getting down to just a few who are not doing well.  Its the same every summer on my side of the mountain.  You have an area just to your west that is equally dry the last 3 days.  Some areas in York and Lancaster county have also been practically shut out as well. 

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes, this part of it is pretty depressing.    I just checked my local USGS water location and we are back down to our driest point ever outside of last summer.  But less heat will be helpful.  CMC was also fairly cool/normal. 

I see that CTP has me at 40% for today, 60% for tomorrow. We'll see.

Really hope that your area gets hit today. Cannot imagine how frustrating it is to be this dry 2 summers in a row. 

At least you did well with the white stuff last winter.   

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its getting down to just a few who are not doing well.  Its the same every summer on my side of the mountain.  You have an area just to your west that is equally dry the last 3 days.  Some areas in York and Lancaster county have also been practically shut out as well. 

 

I got a couple of torrential downpours back to back Sunday afternoon that put down over an inch of rain, then more rain last evening and early this morning that put down another inch or so. PIT airport got 0.39” on Sunday and 0.17” this morning, so that’s why I’m in the red and they’re in the yellow. I would guess UHI has some effect on thunderstorms, given that warmer temperatures create more instability, but that’s a conjecture and I’ve never looked at the science.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I see that CTP has me at 40% for today, 60% for tomorrow. We'll see.

Really hope that your area gets hit today. Cannot imagine how frustrating it is to be this dry 2 summers in a row. 

At least you did well with the white stuff last winter.   

Yea, I am not complaining just stating.  Yesterday was the most frustrating though.  The area that Loseto got over 2" on missed me by a few miles....it followed the mountain chain.  Definitely did well this winter. 

But as @TimB84 said, the MR and LR models look precariously dry.  The GFS in particular.  If the GFS came to light, everyone here would be quickly complaining about dry again going into August so lets hope not.  Even Marysville would be cutting back their mowing.   One of the driest GFS 384 total accum maps I have ever seen for around here.    But as we know it does not do well with convection.  

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I got a couple of torrential downpours back to back Sunday afternoon that put down over an inch of rain, then more rain last evening and early this morning that put down another inch or so. PIT airport got 0.39” on Sunday and 0.17” this morning, so that’s why I’m in the red and they’re in the yellow. I would guess UHI has some effect on thunderstorms, given that warmer temperatures create more instability, but that’s a conjecture and I’ve never looked at the science.

Some areas to your west have had less than 1/3" of any inch in the 3 days.  Cannot see how well they are doing for the month though. 

[TimB]

9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some areas to your west have had less than 1/3" of any inch in the 3 days.  Cannot see how well they are doing for the month though. 

Sampled a few weather stations out there, they seem to be running either just behind or just ahead of PIT’s normal month to date, mostly due to overperforming relatively on 7/1.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Sampled a few weather stations out there, they seem to be running either just behind or just ahead of PIT’s normal month to date, mostly due to overperforming relative on 7/1.

When the folks who are saturated dry out a bit, I would really like to see a low sweep under us and bring a stratiformer.  Chattanooga Choo Choo Summer Style. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

When the folks who are saturated dry out a bit, I would really like to see a low sweep under us and bring a stratiformer.  Chattanooga Choo Choo Summer Style. 

As @Mount Joy Snowman said earlier this morning, convection makes for big winners and big losers. You'd like to think that over time that things even out...but really that doesn't always happen. As you said, we need a more typical cooler season type LP to bring an area-wide soaking. Everyone joins in on the fun, and everyone gets the type of rain that is really needed. 

[Bubbler86]

50 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

@Bubbler86 overnight model runs looked on the dry side but seem to keep the big heat at bay. GFS range now goes to 7/29 so let’s hope we can lock this in.

I just scanned the GFS and that ridge really is displaced East.  A bit surprised we are so dry but that is not the look of heat like you said.  An average looking depiction temp wise.  With that said, I have a bit less confidence in the MR and LR of the GFS right now.  Really flopping more, IMO, than the last couple months of solid work it has done. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

32 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I got a couple of torrential downpours back to back Sunday afternoon that put down over an inch of rain, then more rain last evening and early this morning that put down another inch or so. PIT airport got 0.39” on Sunday and 0.17” this morning, so that’s why I’m in the red and they’re in the yellow. I would guess UHI has some effect on thunderstorms, given that warmer temperatures create more instability, but that’s a conjecture and I’ve never looked at the science.

I actually have read a study on that (can't recall by whom or when) and indeed there is evidence that cities receive more prcip from convective elements than their surrounding locations, for precisely the reason you stated.  The difference was not huge, perhaps something on the order of 5-10% more, but it was statistically significant.  So your instincts were correct!

 

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some areas to your west have had less than 1/3" of any inch in the 3 days.  Cannot see how well they are doing for the month though. 

This does not include yesterday but seems they are doing well....