Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Mesoscale Discussion 1036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois and northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202025Z - 202230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing severe weather threat late this afternoon and into the evening from east-central Illinois into northern Indiana. DISCUSSION...An MCV has traversed northern Missouri and western Illinois through the morning and early afternoon today. The convection has been mostly weak, likely due to the stable, capped downstream airmass from the overnight MCS in the region. In fact, almost all lightning has now ended within this cluster. However, a remnant MCV can still be seen in radar imagery from the KILX WSR-88D. The 19Z RAOB from KILX shows the stable airmass with MLCIN near -200 J/kg. However, the hodograph does show decent clockwise curvature within the lowest 3 km and moderate mid-level flow. This is likely a good proximity hodograph for later storms which are expected to form near this MCV later this afternoon/early evening. Despite the lackluster storm development thus far, this is expected to change in the next 1 to 2 hours as this MCV moves into east central Illinois where the airmass was not worked over by overnight convection. In this region dewpoints are in the low 70s with temperatures in the mid 80s with the SPC mesoanalysis suggesting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This instability, combined with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear per 19Z ILX RAOB and SPC mesoanalysis should be sufficient for supercell development. Any supercells which develop may have a risk of all hazards including a couple of tornadoes. The tornado threat will likely be greatest in a narrow corridor where winds are backed to southerly near the MCV and near the warm front where low-level vorticity should be enhanced. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/20/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39828860 40048872 40738869 41348849 41618788 41638701 41768622 41718552 41488527 40798527 40108660 40048723 39728838 39828860 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 About time....parameters are good except for the cap to the west which should erode here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Update from IWX. A couple hours old now but shows they’re confident storms will develop as the MCV approaches. It’s been warm and muggy with sunshine all day. The webinar indicates US 30 as the most likely area for tornadoes, but the location of the warm front depicted in the SPC MD would make me think the state line might be a better option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Its plenty hot here in Niles even with clouds. No lack of instability. Its just a stubborn cap or something. Lack of cumulus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Update from IWX. A couple hours old now but shows they’re confident storms will develop as the MCV approaches. It’s been warm and muggy with sunshine all day. The webinar indicates US 30 as the most likely area for tornadoes, but the location of the warm front depicted in the SPC MD would make me think the state line might be a better option? Yea. Im thinking the southerlies ahead of the MCV overriding the cold pool over southern lake michigan could trigger elevated convection that becomes surface based as it moves east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Update from IWX. A couple hours old now but shows they’re confident storms will develop as the MCV approaches. It’s been warm and muggy with sunshine all day. The webinar indicates US 30 as the most likely area for tornadoes, but the location of the warm front depicted in the SPC MD would make me think the state line might be a better option? Actually US 30 in western IN probably is a good call. Further east the risk shifts more so along/north US 24 which I figure is what you are alluding to. Think SPC (plus IWX) are actually onto something here. Increasing bulk shear and a much more unstable environment are available especially in the central/eastern zones of the MCD should allow *something* to crank along that MCV. Feel that IWX's thinking of supercell to linear transition is probably the most accurate though this week has shown that if an established supercell or two can root themselves along the warm front, they can stay productive for a little longer before changing modes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 We have initiation around Chicago and in NW Indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Zzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 That remnant weak MCV might just be able to prime the pump for eastern areas and there may be a second round with the front overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: We have initiation around Chicago and in NW Indiana Since when did the highlighted area become "around Chicago?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Since when did the highlighted area become "around Chicago?" It’s the Chicago TV market so that’s something? Anyway, probably need that Tornado Watch soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Svr warnings being issued now in northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Maybe a sign for you this event isn't worth storm chasing. I definitely thought it would be poppin a little bit harder out there by now, so you may be on to something. Losing a tire at 80 miles an hour is at least some kind of excitement though so whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 I know this is somewhat off topic, but I still want to share. First time for everything, I'm really glad I didn't lose control of the car. Not sure if that's all dry rot or if I'm just stupid, but I specifically recall discussing with my mechanic that my tires should be more than okay until at least winter. You live and you learn I guess, I'll pay more attention from now on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Even though there is no watch in the area at present I must say I am concerned with the 400 helicity in central and northern IL and on into WI with an approaching cold front and t storms to the west of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Interesting east/west boundary across IL shallow convection just north of me may be slightly Elevated with “flat and fuzzy “ tops and high base but sharper looking CU going up more west on the western edge of that long days may have allowed late afternoon recovery around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 21 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I definitely thought it would be poppin a little bit harder out there by now, so you may be on to something. Losing a tire at 80 miles an hour is at least some kind of excitement though so whatever Yeah, I've had my tire blow out on the highway too. "Some kind of entertainment" is definitely a way to describe it, lol. I'm glad you're ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 I tend to think including Southern Michigan in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is a little too ambitious given the front and instability/moisture gradient still sits along the MI/IN/OH border. But I could be wrong. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Baseball size hail in Berrien County MI rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Baseball size hail in Berrien County MI rn looks like a weakly-rotating left moving supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 tornado warning for Davis City, IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Insufficient recovery between rounds for WI/N IL/E IA...as I suspected.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 It’s sad when the potential for rain of any type is a top 5 warm season weather event for me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Insufficient recovery between rounds for WI/N IL/E IA...as I suspected. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Generous to call the earlier stuff a round, don't you think? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Major couplet and likely TOG coming right at Pella, IA. They were hit by an EF3 in July of 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said: Major couplet and likely TOG coming right at Pella, IA. They were hit by an EF3 in July of 2018. Tornado reported just on the north side of Pella Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 The IA line seems to be morphing into supercells as it approaches the higher helicity to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 ok when are we gonna have a meso discussion about a watch for Illinois with those possibly tornadic supercells approaching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 21, 2021 Share Posted June 21, 2021 The fact that I could be on the Iowa border right now makes me quite annoyed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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