fluoronium Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 I'm playing the MCV today based on proximity alone. Seeing all the crapvection early in the morning had me worried but now the sun is out here and I'm more hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Okay so real talk, where do the weather overlords think I should head for best supercell chances? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Place bets if they go tornado or severe watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Definitely tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Not predicting a repeat but I'm getting a slight 6/30/2014 vibe with the evolution today/tonight.Easy no-chase decision for me, then.Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 We need to get the clouds and showers out of here. It is currently still only 70º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Place bets if they go tornado or severe watches Just FYI, when the SPC outlines an area in red, 95% of the time it indicates a Tornado Watch is forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 ACCAS forming at end of southern MCV. I'm down at Monon today instead of my usual haunt at Griffith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 For what it's worth- the 12z NAM supercell composite parameter with 500mb wind overlay for tonight- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Easy no-chase decision for me, then. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk Ha, well, don't base your decision off of my post. When I was looking at the CAM progs, I was thinking what does this appearance remind me of, and 6/30/14 was one that came to mind. There was uncertainty about what that second wave of convection would do as it moved east, and it ended up being a prolific QLCS tornado producer south of Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 The 80% MD has expired and it looks like no watch still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 For some reason the developing convection in MO that the meso was issued for turned into a moderate rain blob what a waste of a 60kt 500mb speed max so far sometimes mini discrete storms can develop within this but so far nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 On the road now, this better not be a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Feel free to give advice, I think I'm gonna head south westish for now Edit: Ripping off Chicago Storm's comment, we're going to Pontiac. His advice got me within ten miles of a tornado last time that I missed because I stopped for gas, so I'm gonna follow his advice again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 28 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Feel free to give advice, I think I'm gonna head south westish for now Edit: Ripping off Chicago Storm's comment, we're going to Pontiac. His advice got me within ten miles of a tornado last time that I missed because I stopped for gas, so I'm gonna follow his advice again. Fill up now. That's my advice for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Already did, but with my 13 gallon tank even that's not a guarantee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 37 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: For some reason the developing convection in MO that the meso was issued for turned into a moderate rain blob what a waste of a 60kt 500mb speed max so far sometimes mini discrete storms can develop within this but so far nothing Still a bit of inhibition in that area. But look just behind it at some cells forming with lightning near the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 .MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 203 PM CDT The MCV we have been monitoring since daybreak is struggling to maintain a consistent footprint of deep convection as it enters west- central Illinois early this afternoon. Even with these radar trends, conditions continue to destabilize south of the warm front, which is now analyzed to be roughly from northern La Salle County eastward between I-80 and I-88 into extreme northwest Indiana. Deep-layer shear of 40kt+ remains present with 50-60kt of mid-level flow per KLOT VWP. The lack of increasing convection suggests low-level capping may be a little more robust that previously thought, likely owing to slower heating from the cirrus canopy filtering overhead since this morning. With this complex mesoscale set-up, CAMs unsurprisingly continue to struggle. However, the trend of hourly CAMs to quickly re-develop convection as the MCV enters the CWA is entirely plausible if the CAP is indeed taking longer to erode. We now have to focus on the prospect that the afternoon convection does not fully materialize and determine the implications as we move into this evening. With minimal convection this afternoon, the low- level air mass should quickly recover on a developing 50kt+ LLJ. So, round two of potential severe convection along the cold front mid to late evening is still in play, with pockets of damaging winds and perhaps embedded QLCS tornadoes near and south of the warm front. Kluber 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Area just W/SW of RFD is one to watch for initiation. Warm front is through ORD and will stall w the lake breeze. Low level flow is strongest near RFD ahead of a weak surface meso low. It’s a pretty small area but there is just enough overlay of instability and low-mid level is enhanced flow from the MCVs to get it going. Shame it’s so cloud my but that will also keep LCLs lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Hoping all the cloud cover from the weakening rain to the NW hasn't ruined it altogether. Definitely not falling in line with SPC's original timing. Reed Timmer stated this morning that things didn't look as promising in Eastern IA and IL and opted not to chase. Mesoscale Discussion 1035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Areas affected...Southern Iowa...northern Missouri...and northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 201902Z - 202100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may develop along a southeastward moving cold front by the mid afternoon hours. The strongest storms may pose a severe hail and damaging wind risk. A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows a growing field of cumulus along the southern IA/NE border in the vicinity of a cold front and nearby surface trough (with a shallower field noted along the front stretching back to the southwest into northern KS). The cumulus along the IA/NE border have taken on more agitated characteristics with some vertical development noted in the past 30-60 minutes. Modified morning soundings, as well as RAP forecast soundings and mesoanalysis estimates, suggest that MLCIN is waning as temperatures climb into the upper 80s with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints. These trends suggests that convective initiation is possible in the coming hours (likely by mid afternoon) - initially within the IA/NE cumulus field and then possibly along the cold front to the southwest. A favorable parameter space just ahead of the cold front (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-45 knots of effective bulk shear) should support strong convection. Deep-layer flow oriented nearly orthogonal to the cold front may support initially discrete to semi-discrete modes that may pose a hail/wind threat. However, slightly cooler/stable outflow from prior convection across northern MO/southern IA and increasing inhibition southwestward into KS introduce some uncertainty into the spatial extent of the threat. Air mass recovery trends across northern MO/southern IA will continue to be monitored and a watch is possible in the coming hours. ..Moore/Hart.. 06/20/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 My tire just imploded completely, so I gotta go home and figure something things out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Malakas! Meanwhile, I'm at Petenwell Lake visiting my dad and have to drive back to MN through an area under a watch. I was expecting a nothingburger up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: My tire just imploded completely, so I gotta go home and figure something things out Sorry for the bad luck but at least it wasn't baseball size hail like they had just east of Indpls the other day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 SPC with no changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 32 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: My tire just imploded completely, so I gotta go home and figure something things out Maybe a sign for you this event isn't worth storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 A strong cold front will push into the region from the northwest tonight. Strong to severe storms are possible ahead of the front, into tonight. Scattered showers and a few storms will linger behind the front on Monday, along with much cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Complex of storms has weakened as it pushed into western IL early this afternoon. 19z ILX sounding indicated a layer of warm air centered at 850 mb, providing a significant cap for deeper convective development. Besides the cap, the atmosphere is supportive of robust convection given 60 kt winds at 500 mb and mid level lapse rates at 7C/km. Latest forecast soundings and SPC mesoanalysis show a weaker cap over eastern IL, which could be eroded from outflow moving in from the west. Latest hi-res visibile satellite imagery shows modest cu development east of I-57. This will be the area to watch over the next few hours, and the last few runs of the HRRR have shown discrete convection here between 21-00z. All severe modes would be possible given nearly 3k J/kg MLCAPE and strong deep layer shear near 50kt, but with the warm front located farther north near I-80, damaging winds and hail are primary threats. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of a cold front across eastern Iowa early this evening, then push into the northwest CWA towards mid evening. Severe storms are possible given moderate instability and favorable deep layer shear. Damaging winds gusts are the primary threat, with hail and an isolated QLCS tornado possible. A localized flash flood threat exists due to high rainfall rates when PWs peak over 1.75" this evening. As the line shifts farther southeast into central IL near I-55 towards midnight, conditions become less favorable for both severe and flash flooding with decreasing instability. The weakening trend continues overnight with diminishing storm coverage expected near and south of I-70 late. Southwest gradient winds gusting over 20 mph ahead of the front this evening, will veer west northwest post frontal late tonight, also gusting over 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Feel free to give advice, I think I'm gonna head south westish for now Edit: Ripping off Chicago Storm's comment, we're going to Pontiac. His advice got me within ten miles of a tornado last time that I missed because I stopped for gas, so I'm gonna follow his advice again. I didn’t even follow my advice. Got off work at 2, got home and haven’t left.19z ILX sounding has a sizable cap, dry air aloft, among other things. Maybe the MCV will eventually do something in IN/OH, but IL is mostly done for.Attention then turns to the front in IA, but the issue there is the best threat will likely be confined to IA. Modified flow in off the backside of the first waves activity is feeding northwest, so the corridor of max potential out there is likely only in C IA.All in all, no bueno.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Areas affected...Portions of eastern Illinois and northern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202025Z - 202230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing severe weather threat late this afternoon and into the evening from east-central Illinois into northern Indiana. DISCUSSION...An MCV has traversed northern Missouri and western Illinois through the morning and early afternoon today. The convection has been mostly weak, likely due to the stable, capped downstream airmass from the overnight MCS in the region. In fact, almost all lightning has now ended within this cluster. However, a remnant MCV can still be seen in radar imagery from the KILX WSR-88D. The 19Z RAOB from KILX shows the stable airmass with MLCIN near -200 J/kg. However, the hodograph does show decent clockwise curvature within the lowest 3 km and moderate mid-level flow. This is likely a good proximity hodograph for later storms which are expected to form near this MCV later this afternoon/early evening. Despite the lackluster storm development thus far, this is expected to change in the next 1 to 2 hours as this MCV moves into east central Illinois where the airmass was not worked over by overnight convection. In this region dewpoints are in the low 70s with temperatures in the mid 80s with the SPC mesoanalysis suggesting 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This instability, combined with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear per 19Z ILX RAOB and SPC mesoanalysis should be sufficient for supercell development. Any supercells which develop may have a risk of all hazards including a couple of tornadoes. The tornado threat will likely be greatest in a narrow corridor where winds are backed to southerly near the MCV and near the warm front where low-level vorticity should be enhanced. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/20/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 39828860 40048872 40738869 41348849 41618788 41638701 41768622 41718552 41488527 40798527 40108660 40048723 39728838 39828860 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Im waiting near Niles. Hoping activity perks up over the south end of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Re: SPC MD... Seems overzealous in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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