HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Nobody else has made it so here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Could envision a moderate risk being needed if guidance up until this point remains consistent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2021 Author Share Posted June 19, 2021 TOR possible SVR in Cass County Michigan rn, has a little hook in it and some rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: TOR possible SVR in Cass County Michigan rn, has a little hook in it and some rotation Yeah, that looks nasty. Not chasing it because it is terrible terrain. Way too many trees for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 19, 2021 Author Share Posted June 19, 2021 Rotation is tightening up on it right as it heads towards town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Hopeful that this plays out tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Surprise Severe Thunderstorm Watch time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 41 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Surprise Severe Thunderstorm Watch time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Storms to the northwest looking from downtown Findlay tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 Could these storms tonight help set down additional outflow boundaries for the stuff tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Could these storms tonight help set down additional outflow boundaries for the stuff tomorrow? I was thinking the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Nice downburst signature near Knox, IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 The tail end of the complex in northern Indiana has good rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Could envision a moderate risk being needed if guidance up until this point remains consistent. . you thinking wind or tornadoes? If tornadoes, that's bold. I could see wind though. Storms moving out of Iowa later tomorrow evening should organize into a robust QLCS of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 20, 2021 Author Share Posted June 20, 2021 MCV has formed out west as expected and is wickedly strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Hope there will be supercell potential ahead of the fast crapvection blob in SE Michigan. Its too early for Illinois and round 2 will probably be too late in the day and too far SW to be worth chasing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Models looked a lot better for this 12 hours ago. Looks more unorganized/isolated in regards to severe. Have lots of dense fog in the area that has to manage to burn off before mid/high level clouds from lasts nights MCV moves in. Don’t know how we’re going to make it to 89° today under cloudy skies. I would expect isolated supercells initiating around 5-6pm along or south of I-94. Best threat looks to come south of the MI/IN/OH border. Couple of latest HRRR runs show a nice bow blowing through that way. If we can somehow manage to get some better instability then obviously the threat would be greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 The NAM has come in and reversed a bit of the bleeding that was happening on guidance last night. Would suggest a quality threat with the MCV from the Chicago metro into SW MI and N IN during the mid afternoon through early tonight. Then it has a sig environment in E IA and NW IL during the evening and into early tonight. The cloud cover and precip shield with the hurricane over IA this morning has been steadily fading, with a good deal of clearing already across MO and C/S IL. Everything seems to be on track for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 If I was going to chase today, I'd set up my lawn chair in Cyclone's back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 SPC: Quote Predictability does not always improve closer to an event, and this is an example. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Definitely seems like the ongoing MCV will be a big focus today. Convection continues to bubble up nicely from central IA down into especially northern MO. Would imagine that to hold it's own for several hours and eventually increase and become severe later today. Any place ahead of that feature is in play for today, just depends how soon it takes off and starts producing severe. Definitely could see some tor potential with that. Behind it with the cold front is definitely looking pretty good as well. Very nice synoptic setup for a band of severe with that. How strong that gets depends on how much Iowa destabilizes later today. Clearing already working into western IA already. SPC meso shows steep mid LR out over the Plains, and those will shift into IA later today which will also help. Forecast soundings show pretty good low-level shear and nice vorticity advection with the potent incoming vort max is nice as well. HRRR has showed isolated cells popping up ahead out in the open warm sector which may be another good sign. All in all should be an interesting day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 54 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: SPC: Did you all think it would come easy? That doesn't happen this year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 There are several boundaries out there that will mark the northern extent of the severe threat w/ the 2 MCVs, but the eastern-most boundary/front will likely lift a bit north of where it is now as long as clearing continues. The smaller/secondary MCV over MO is probably what will drive the wind/tornado threat across the southern Chicago metro (initiation of sfc-based TS near intersection of an outflow boundary and the lake breeze) into the Detroit area, likely reaching a peak either side of the IN/OH/MI borders. A good chunk of IA is definitely in play, with hail too, especially where the outflows intersect the low/front later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Made the decision to forego the MCV in favor of the front in eastern Iowa. Let's see how well that ages.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: Made the decision to forego the MCV in favor of the front in eastern Iowa. Let's see how well that ages.... Could have played both, that's my current plan. I'm off work from ORD at 2. Guessing by then somewhere in the Ottawa-Pontiac-Kankakee area might be in play with the MCV. Will chase around there for a while before hauling west to the IL/IA border. IKK to DVN can be done in 2hrs and 30mins, and with it light out till 9 now, it's doable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Could have played both, that's my current plan. I'm off work from ORD at 2. Guessing by then somewhere in the Ottawa-Pontiac-Kankakee area might be in play with the MCV. Will chase around there for a while before hauling west to the IL/IA border. IKK to DVN can be done in 2hrs and 30mins, and with it light out till 9 now, it's doable. I still could. Debating it. I just worry that playing the MCV puts you out of position for storms in Iowa and you end up missing both. I think there's tornadoes from the MCV, but I also think Iowa has a shot to maybe do something better, along with some regional bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 I feel like if I go out to chase today, a tornado will pass within ten miles of Aurora. Edit: We'll see about that though, as I am indeed planning on going out around 1 or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 1032 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021 Areas affected...far southeast IA...far northeast MO...much of central into northern IL...northwest IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201557Z - 201800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A watch will likely be needed for parts the mid MS Valley across IL and into northwest IN. Storms are expected to develop, intensify, and pose a severe risk as they move from near the IL/IA/MO border east-northeast across IL to the southern shore of Lake MI during the afternoon and early evening. Convective trends will be monitored through the late morning and into the midday hours for an eventual likely watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic late this morning shows a series of MCVs located from northeast IA, central IA, and northern MO moving east. Visible satellite shows a growing thunderstorm cluster across northern MO associated with the southern-most MCV. Surface analysis places an outflow boundary from northeast MO east into central IL. South of the boundary, southerly surface winds and temperatures in the lower 80s with dewpoints near 70 deg F are noted as of 10am observations. North of the boundary, cloud debris has tempered surface heating with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s from a Quincy to Peoria line and lower 70s over northern IL. Model guidance varies considerably regarding the details of potential convective evolution across central and northern IL this afternoon. As a result, there is relatively large uncertainty. However, timing of the MCV and its eastward translation would lead to the potential for storm development and a corresponding risk for severe as it progresses east across the middle MS Valley. Forecast sounding show moderate destabilization across central IL by early to mid afternoon (2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE). Equally important, the low to mid-level flow fields strengthen and forecast hodographs enlarge during the mid to late afternoon. Consequently, it seems the risk for organized severe storms (including bows or supercells or mix thereof) and the associated severe hazards will increase coincident with this wind field response. Due to the large spread in possible solutions for this forecast, observational trends will disproportionately weigh in the decision of a potential severe-storm watch issuance. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/20/2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 20, 2021 Share Posted June 20, 2021 Not predicting a repeat but I'm getting a slight 6/30/2014 vibe with the evolution today/tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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